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A View Towards 2020: The New Energy Landscape. Bob Fryklund , Chief Upstream Strategist , IHS. The North American Renaissance. First Wave-- The Shale Gale !. September 2012 64.7 Bcf per day. Henry Hub monthly average cash price. NGL- and oil-rich plays begin to drive third wave.

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a view towards 2020 the new energy landscape
A View Towards 2020: The New Energy Landscape

Bob Fryklund , Chief Upstream Strategist , IHS

FryklundANIMPMay2013

first wave the shale gale
First Wave-- The Shale Gale !

September 2012

64.7 Bcf per day

Henry Hub monthly

average cash price

NGL- and oil-rich

plays begin to drive

third wave

July 2008

56.1 Bcf per day

Avg $7.45

Jan 04 to Dec 08

Haynesville, Marcellus

shale plays drive second wave

Shale Gale starts with

Barnett, Fayetteville,

and Woodford shale plays

Avg $3.75

Jan 09 to Sept. 12

Hurricane Ike

Hurricanes Katrina, Rita

FryklundANIMPMay2013

Source: IHS CERA, Intelligence Press, and EIA.

inn of america no room
Inn of America No Room

FryklundANIMPMay2013

global lng supply is diversifying geographically
Global LNG supply is diversifying geographically

Source: IHS CERA.

Note: mt = million metric tons.

FryklundANIMPMay2013

second wave u s liquids revival
Second Wave - U.S. Liquids Revival
  • Reversing a trend that spanned the previous four decades, U.S. liquids production is expected to regain and overtake its 1970 peak by 2020.
  • Driven solely by the growth in tight oil and wet gas plays, total liquids production is expected to reach >11.5 mmboe/d by the end of this decade.
  • By 2020, tight oil production is on track to reach 4.2 mmboe/d accounting for 36% of total US liquids production (up from 21% in 2012).

*Forecast numbers are production capacity

**Assumes recent high oil prices above $80/bbl are maintained throughout the forecast period

FryklundANIMPMay2013

u s canada emerge on the world stage
U.S. & Canada Emerge On the World Stage

Other countries predominantly unconventional (Canada oil sands), deepwater (Brazil, Angola, Other Africa) or onshore OPEC categories (Iraq, Libya).

C

C

FryklundANIMPMay2013

north american oil production create higher opec spare capacity
North American oil production create higher OPEC spare capacity

Year on Year Change in Total Crude Oil Production

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

Weak “call on OPEC” expected to result in higher OPEC spare capacity and reduce OPEC pricing power

FryklundANIMPMay2013

slide9

A New Map for Global trade flows of crude and refined product

We anticipate significant growth in global trade

Gasoline Flows

Diesel Flows

FryklundANIMPMay2013

slide10

North American LPG Exports Ramp Up

U.S. Imports and Exports of LPG,

Thousand Tonnes per Day

mmb/d

348

  • Global LPG trade flows are adjusting to accommodate U.S. exports
  • LPG production outside the United States is also rising
  • Demand from international markets will need to expand to consume the new production

290

232

174

116

58

0

FryklundANIMPMay2013

global hotspots
Global Hotspots

High Impact Wells

Dry Plays

Onshore

Deepwater

FryklundANIMPMay2013

technology hotspots
Technology Hotspots

GTL – Planned/Under Construction

Mini LNG – Planned/Under Construction

GTL - Operating

Mini LNG - Operating

GTL – Deferred/Cancelled

Floating LNG

the global tight oil race
The Global Tight Oil Race

Producing

Scaling Up

Pilots

Frontier

FryklundANIMPMay2013

mega projects
Mega Projects

Oil Sands

Shale/Tight Oil

US GOM

Qatar LNG

NW Shelf

East

Africa

Pre-Salt

Queensland

50 – 100 bil.

100 – 150 bil.

150 – 200 bil.

> 200 bil.

epc capacity issues drive delays
EPC – Capacity Issues Drive Delays

Construction delay = difference between online date at FID and actual or expected online date

FryklundANIMPMay2013

capex costs micro bursts
Capex Costs Micro Bursts

Brazil Upstream Cost Index

Regional Upstream Indexes

FryklundANIMPMay2013

the local cont ent multiplier brazil

Key Exploration and

Development Activities

Topsides &

Drilling &

Production

Processing

Development

& Storage Units

Equipment

The Local Content Multiplier - Brazil

0

50

100

Percent LC (percent)

Higher initial expat input on (E&PM) is likely to increase cost

Access, cost, and quality are key issues for local hull upgrade and requires infrastructure upgrade

Large

Large turbine drive rotary equipment beyond local industry capabilities. Large pumps and compressors currently imported.

Higher local content can be reached given scale and technology transfer

Necessary to transfer capability/technology from other industries shouldn’t present a major hurdle

Maximum LC Achievable

With Current Local

Capabilities

76 percent

A steep change in technical capability likely to require large procurement commitment

Higher local content is not a large capability/technology stretch here

Higher initial expat input on E&PM is likely to increase cost

Source: IHS CERA.

FPSO: Floating Production Storage Offloading Vessel

FryklundANIMPMay2013

the new face of risk
The New Face of Risk

FryklundKNOWApril23,2013

the road ahead
The Road Ahead
  • A Golden Era for Contracting ?
  • Something for Everyone – Up/ Mid/ Downstream ?
  • Mega projects- Diversity Continues
  • New Technologies - Game Changers ?
  • New Models of Cooperation

FryklundANIMPMay2013

slide22

For more information about this presentation or

IHS in general, please contact

Bob Fryklund

+1 713 369 0317

[email protected]

Calgary

Oslo

Moscow

London

Cambridge, MA

San Francisco

Beijing

Paris

Tokyo

Denver

Geneva

Washington, DC

Dubai

Houston

Mexico City

Bangkok

Mumbai

Bogota

Singapore

Perth

Rio de Janeiro

55 Cambridge Parkway

Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA

IHSCERA.com

FryklundANIMPMay2013

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