Dave s forecast update
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Dave’s Forecast Update. Dave Jasinski UMCES/CBPO TMAW - 5/3/2007. Predicting Chl-a. Malone (1992) found a significant relationship between 1 month lagged Susquehanna river flow and mesohaline mainstem chl-a. Chl-a = 0.03 + 1.43(Q f ) r 2 =0.71 p<0.01. Q f = lagged Susq flow.

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Dave’s Forecast Update

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Dave s forecast update

Dave’s Forecast Update

Dave Jasinski

UMCES/CBPO

TMAW - 5/3/2007


Predicting chl a

Predicting Chl-a

  • Malone (1992) found a significant relationship between 1 month lagged Susquehanna river flow and mesohaline mainstem chl-a

Chl-a = 0.03 + 1.43(Qf) r2=0.71 p<0.01

Qf = lagged Susq flow


Could not reproduce result

Could not reproduce result

p<0.001

1985-1988 water column integrated mean monthly chla mass for the mesohaline

Mainstem vs previous month mean daily flow (CFS)


1985 2006

1985-2006

p<0.001

1985-2006 water column integrated mean monthly chla mass for the mesohaline

Mainstem vs previous month mean daily flow (CFS)


Chla forecasting

Chla forecasting

  • Looking at individual months, segments, seasons weakened the relationship

  • No significant relationship with surface values only

  • Next step will look at seasonal CHLA vs total flows as well as using interpolated CHLA mass.


River loads and forecast time line

River loads and forecast time-line

  • Joel Blomquist is new loads guru

  • Jan-April fall line loads calculated by May 8th

  • Can develop Pax and Rapp anoxia forecasts and prelim mainstem anoxia forecast with this

  • Jan-May will be available ~June 8th and will then be able to do final Mainstem anoxic, Hypoxic and Potomac anoxic


Dave s forecast update

Jan-May

Jan-April


Currently working on

Currently working on

  • Estimating `06-`07 point source loads based on addition of `05 data

  • Investigating anoxic volume bias from new interpolator


Example of point source data

Example of point source data


Interpolator issue

Interpolator issue

Image 3 – New interpolator output (2 nearest neighbor) with vertically interpolated station data

Image 2 – New interpolator output with vertically interpolated station data

Image 1 – Old interpolator output with vertically interpolated station data


Other forecasts

Other Forecasts

  • Scavia is on track, I just need to get him some data.

  • Ping needs - 1) DO, chlorophyll, temperature monitoring data (2006 – present) from the main stem and down-streams of tributaries, 2) fall line flows (until present month!!!!) for major tributaries, 2) TN and TP concentration (observed, not from the ESTIMATOR) since 2005 for major tributaries, and 3) Point source TN and TP loads (2005, 2006) from the 9 major basins/tributaries.


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