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Guoyi Han

Guoyi Han. Geographer, Hazard, Risk, Disasters, Human dimensions of GEC. Research Fellow Stockholm Environment Institute. CLIMATE CHANGE. Stockholm Environment Institute. Bridging science and policy    . Non-profit, independent, international research institute

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Guoyi Han

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  1. Guoyi Han Geographer, Hazard, Risk, Disasters, Human dimensions of GEC Research Fellow Stockholm Environment Institute

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE Stockholm Environment Institute Bridging science and policy     • Non-profit, independent, international research institute • Established in 1989 by the Swedish government • Supports decision-making in the field of sustainable development • Six centers around the world • http://www.sei-international.org/

  3. Theme 3: Transforming governance Theme 2: Reducing climate risk Theme 4: Rethinking development Theme 1: Managing environmental systems

  4. China Cluster at SEI what do we do?

  5. China Puzzle Economic miracle and Environmental disaster Hungary Dragon and Consumption The Speed and Scale: 20yrs vs.100yrs: multiple, simultaneous transitions The "scale and scope of pollution far outpaces what occurred in the United States and Europe” The climate change “ elephant in the bed room” or “ incubator for solutions” The uncertain future

  6. Making Sense of the Perplexed China today is in the midst of multiple transitions From a traditional agrarian society to an industrial nation From rural to urban From a planning to a market based economy Along with it, the reform of the financial system, the social welfare system, education, medical care, etc, etc. Those transitions are critical for that, depending the paths chosen, they bring both opportunities and risks, and the results have profound implications for China as well as to the world in large. Managing any one of those transitions is an enough challenge, but China will have to deal with the intricate inter-linkages of the multiple transitions simultaneously. Even more so, given that those transitions happen in a stunning speed at a massive scale; those transitions happen in a world of climate change and globalization

  7. "China watching is the only profession that makes meteorology look accurate and precise." Nicholas Kristof, former Beijing Bureau Chief, The New York Times

  8. Lecture for Environment, Development and Globalization CEMUS Education/Uppsala Centre for Sustainable Development • Fall Semester 2012 China’s development and global impacts Guoyi Han, Research Fellow

  9. China’s economic miracle • In 2001, China entered WTO • In 2003, China passed UK • In 2005, China passed France • …, China passed Germany • In 2010, China passed Japan • In the coming twenty years, China will surpass the US.

  10. Contribution to the world total GDP Data source: Angus Madison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run: 960-2030 AD, OECD publication, 2007

  11. China’s ranks in the world on major development indicators Source: Courtesy of Professor Hu Angang, Tsinghua University

  12. At the same time, • China became the ‘world factory’, ‘workshop of the world’ • China became the world largest CO2 emitter; and dominating the new increase of the global GHG emission • China became the world largest energy consumer • The ‘Hungary Dragon’ – China’s thirst for resources of all kinds • …

  13. So what? • What does this mean, for China and globally? • It is not a question about the rise of China, it is about the changing global economic and political power pattern – the geopolitical dynamics of the new century. • China’s global role is critical -- Many go as far as arguing the future of the world will largely depending on where China is going…

  14. In this lecture, We will looked at this from economic, social, environment /resources, political/international relation lenses

  15. Chinese Economy

  16. ‘Open Reform’- the Chinese Economic Miracle • How did it all started? • The 30+ years remarkable economic growth • A successful yet profoundly unsustainable model “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, unsustainable” • Chinese economy in transfromation – ambition of the 12th FYP

  17. China in the global economy Gross Domestic Product Shares World Total, Four Major Powers, 1–2030 Source: Angus Madison, “Statistics on World Population, GDP, and per Capita GDP, 1–2003 AD” (www.ggdc.net/maddison/); Angus Madison, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960–2030 AD (Paris: OECD, 2007). (Slide, courtesy of Professor HuAngang)

  18. Urban informal Urban formal TVEs GDP structure Agriculture Courtesy of Professor HuAngang, 2011

  19. The immediate challenges to the Chinese economy (Two mostly internal and one mostly external) • The middle income trap (or the ‘reform trap”) • The ‘Lewis turning point’ • The changing external demand

  20. The middle income trap • What is that? • Will China be the same as others? • Or, is it really the “reform trap” or ‘transition trap” • “enjoying touching the stone and no longer wanting to cross the river”

  21. The ‘Lewis Turning Point’ • What is it? • a point in the economic development when no more labor is forthcoming from the underdeveloped, or agricultural, sector and wages begin to rise • China’s demographic transition – overly on the economic transition • Increasing labor cost and implications

  22. The changing external demand • China’s export-dependent economy • The financial crisis

  23. The dilemma for the Chinese government • Investment • Side effects of the stimulus package • Export • Weak global recovery • Domestic Consumption • When?

  24. Social Challenges

  25. Growing Social Tensions • Inequality and injustice • Corruption, distrust, and resentment • Moral decay

  26. Inequality • Distribution • The process • “internalization” – if you are the son of … then …

  27. Corruption, distrust, resentment • Systemizing corruption • Erosion of trust • The “salt crisis” example • ‘Resentment’ dominates the social emotion • Food safety • “high profile stories: Yao Jiaxin, Li Gang, Li Shuangjiang’s son etc etc

  28. Moral Decay • The horror stories • The Yao Jaxin case • “Consumerism is the king” • “you don’t need to say ‘thank you’…” • Social norms • “assuming guilty first…”

  29. Civil society and growing middle class • Rise in the influence of think tanks, lawyers, NGOs and interest groups. Media organizations, microblogging are increasingly powerful. • The growing middle class • The number • Defining indetity

  30. Environment and Resources

  31. Environment and resource • What is same: • The pattern (e.g., UK, London smog 1950s • The relationship • Mostly also the process • What is different: • The scale • The speed • In the ‘Anthropocene’ • Globalization • ‘resource-saturated’ • Climate change

  32. Escalating environmental and recourse constraints • ‘Poor endowment’ • Environmental price/cost • Resource scarcity

  33. Environmental cost • Pollution • Water • Land/soil • Air • Ecosystem destruction • Desertification • Social erosion • Ecosystem services. • Environmental and health cost (4 to 12% GDP)

  34. Resources Scarcity • Water • Energy • Minerals (big commodity price and that have been so tight to China’s demand in the past twenty or so years…

  35. China covers almost 10 million sq km (same as US or Europe to the Urals) • climate and topography extremes • mean elevation of 1500 m (2x the world avg) • 115 million people or 10% of the population occupy just 50,000 sq km or 0.5% of the land area • half of the 1.3 billion people occupy only 1/10th of the land area • high population pressure on scarce resources

  36. Arid and Semi-Arid: 52％ Loss Plateau 640, 000km2 Tibet-Qinghai Plateau 2M km2 Karst 900,000 km2 China Cluster

  37. How Many is 1,320 million? Europe 730 million North America 329 million South America (70%) 261 million Total 1,320 million China Cluster

  38. Fact sheets of China Huge Population: 1.3—1.4 billion GDP Per Capita: USD 2500-3000 (2010) Resource Per Capita: water ¼ of WL, arable land 1/7 Coal-dominant energy structure 60-70% 30 million people in poverty Economic disparity … ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE

  39. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011

  40. Source: World Bank

  41. Climate change as example… • China has less room for mistakes than the now rich countries had in the course of their development • China has to do what no one has done before, i.e., to modernize with a low carbon pathway • And to do it quick enough!

  42. Dilemma for China Development stage Maintaining economic growth Energy endowment and security

  43. Climate change CO2 emissions by six major economies in the total of the world Note: a. 1992 figures. Sources: 1960-1990 data from the World Bank, World Development Indicator 2006, CD-ROM; Taking EU as having 11 countries. 2008-2030 data from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010,IEA；reference scenario(According to the current state, without relevant policy for controlling emissions); Taking EU as having 25 countries. Courtesy of Professor HuAngang, 2011

  44. Climate change • Chinese government has released its 2020 carbon emission reduction target in 2009, which plans to reduce carbon intensity at 40-45% comparing with 2005. Is this an ambitious target, or only a business as usualplan? Scenario projections on carbon emission reduction under different economic growth rate Courtesy of Professor HuAngang, 2011

  45. Climate change • Various carbon emission reduction scenarios Courtesy of Professor HuAngang, 2011

  46. Courtesy of Professor HuAngang, 2011

  47. Political and international relations

  48. Political/international relation • China’s political change • ‘Going out’ ‘ Going global’ strategy • Rising super power and global image • Both China and the world are yet to learn how to cope with the changing role of China

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