Climate challenges facing the livestock industries

1. Climate challenges facing the livestock industries • Richard Eckard • Faculty of Veterinary & Agricultural Sciences

2. The Perfect Storm for the Livestock Industries ** Climate Change Energy efficiency Water use efficiency Forage impact Animal impact Livestock Production Social Licence ** Heat stress Animal Welfare Slaughter & live export Nitrogen pollution Land clearing

3. Food Demand World population trends • 7.6 B in 2018 • 9.8 B by 2050 • Mid scenario • 11.2 B to 16.5 B by 2100 • Less developed ~ 54% • More developed ~ 7% (IMF 2009)

4. Food DemandChanging Consumer Patterns The Rising Global Middle Class • 3.2B achieved in 2016! • All demanding higher value / quality food

5. Food DemandChanging Consumer Patterns Increased food demand by between 60 to 70% by mid century (FAO 2009)

6. Food Demand Changing Consumer Patterns • More developed countries • Lower population growth • Health messages of moderation • Animal welfare & environmental concerns • Rising vegetarianism • 10 to 14% • Stagnation of meat consumption • Less developed countries • Historically lower per capita meat consumption • Less focus on health, environmental & welfare concerns • Rising meat consumption (after Thornton 2010)

7. Social licence to operate Forecast value of risks and opportunities to the Australian red meat industry to 2030 Live export example – public and MPs calling for total ban (MISP 2016)

8. Synthetic meat Meat without Murder! • Cultured meat, in vitro meat, synthetic meat • Growing muscle cells in a nutrient serum • Starts with ‘satellite’ cells obtained from a live animal • Serum still contains animal blood • Artificial milk or hen-free egg whites • Genetically yeast altered Tuomisto, H. L., & Teixeira de Mattos, M. J. (2011)

9. Agricultural emissionsAustralia • DOE 2017

10. Agricultural EmissionsAustralia • Agriculture • 52% of all methane • 71% of all nitrous oxide • Enteric Methane • 10.1% of National emissions • Nitrous Oxide from soils • 3.2% of National emissions DOE 2017

11. Livestock Emissions Estimates • IPCC / National inventory • 4.2% of Global GHGE • 11% Australian GHGE • Less meat less heat • 25% of global GHGE • 50% of Australian GHGE • Livestock’s Long Shadow • 18% of global GHGE • 37% of anthropogenic methane • 80% of agricultural land use But contributes 25% of human protein consumption (Moffit et al. 2017)

12. Methane emissions from livestock DCCEE 2017

13. Comparative farm emissions profiles • Dairy • 3 - 7 t CO 2 e/cow • 4 - 45 t CO 2 e/ha • 8 - 21 t CO 2 e/t MS • Beef • 2 t CO2e/AU • 0.12 t CO 2 e/ha • 14 t CO2e/t beef • Grains • 0.2 - 1 t CO2e/ha • 0.04 t/CO2e/t grain Eckard, Grainger & de Klein 2010; Browne et al. 2011

14. Comparative farm emissions profiles • Wheat & Canola • 0.19 t CO2e/ha • 0.07 t CO2e/t grain • Wool – self replacing • 1.2 t CO2e/ha • 0.20 t CO2e/DSE

15. Carbon NeutralCOP21 Paris Agreement • Net zero emissions from 2050 • All remaining GHG emissions post 2050 need to be offset • Business and governments are aiming to comply

16. Carbon NeutralSupply Chain Demands • Mondelez • 15% less operational GHG EI from 2010 to 2015 • Fonterra (& Dairy Australia) • 30 % less GHG EI / litre milk sourced and processed in New Zealand by 2030 • Olam • 10% less GHG EI by 2020 • Unilever • 50% less GHG EI across the lifecycle by 2020 • Cargill • 5% less GHG EI by 2020 compared to 2015 • Kellogg Company • 15% less GHG EI by 2020 • Pfizer • 20% less GHG EI by 2020 (60 to 80% by 2050) • Wilmar international • 89.72% less GHG from 2013 to 2020 • Nestle • 35% less GHG EI on 2005 baseline • SAB Miller • 25% reduction kgCO2e/hl lager (against 2010 baseline) • Note: Emission Intensity (GHG EI) - The carbon footprint • Of the 100 largest economies 69 are companies and 31 are countries • Government policy may now be less influential than market forces

17. Carbon Neutral Livestock Production • Meat and Livestock Australia • Australian beef can be carbon neutral by 2030 (CN30) • given the right industry, R&D and policy settings • Richard Norton, CEO • Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil • “MS carbon neutral” initiative • Including livestock • Restoring degraded pasture land • BUT • Heavy reliance on offsets • Until research produces a low-methane ruminant

18. Carbon NeutralOffsets from the Livestock industries  $864M to livestock producers AFI 2016

19. Other roles for livestock in society • Source of power to plough the soil to plant crops • Livestock waste - a vital source of nutrients to grow crops • The banking system in Africa • Religious rites and cultural practices • Sacred cows in India • Labola in Africa • Milk vital to nutrition in some regions

20. Is food production the most legitimate form of emission? You can turn off the lights You can walk or cycle But we have to eat! But what should we eat? ?

21. Should we change our diets? Is the choice of a vegetarian diet limited to an affluent few? • World Bank reports • 16% of the world’s population have an income > $20/day • The majority of the world's population remain more concerned about where their next meal comes from, than concerns over food emissions • Major stumbling block in IPCC negotiations • Wealthy people with a high standard of living, wanting to tell the developing world that they cannot aspire to the same standard of living by emitting the same emissions as we have to gain our current wealth • BUT - should we aim to set an example? • Do we aim to change the aspirations of the world rising middle class to aspire to a lower emissions diet?

22. Should we change our diets? • Australian farmland = 385M ha • 90% is not suited to crop production • Rangelands should not be cropped • Ruminants are the only way to convert these to food • Livestock have also degraded the rangelands • BUT where we can crop perhaps we should in future • Should we reserve higher rainfall and good soil regions for crops?

23. Final thoughts • What are the options for the role of livestock in both a climate and food security challenged world? • Diet change is part of the solution • Meat should move to the side plate? • Demitarian/ flexitarian/ vegetarian – all options • Livestock retreat to the rangelands • Good soil x rainfall regions dedicated to crop/hort production • We still need a methane free cow! • Meat demand is still increasing rapidly

24. www.piccc.org.au