Peak Oil and Climate Change. AGU-Joint Assembly Toronto 26 May 2009. James W. Murray School of Oceanography University of Washington. 1999 - ~$10/b. 2008 - ~$147/b. IEA World Energy Outlook - Nov 2008
26 May 2009
James W. Murray
School of Oceanography
University of Washington
1999 - ~$10/b
2008 - ~$147/b
IEA World Energy Outlook - Nov 2008
“The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable.”
We know enough to see that Resource limitation
Needs to be an IPCC scenario
with special acknowledgement to David Rutledge (Cal Tech)
Gb = billions of barrels 1 barrel = 42 gallons = 159 liters
In 13 scenarios, oil production is still rising in 2100
In none of the scenarios did oil production decrease because of resource limitation. None consider Peak Oil!
Oil production is never going to be more than today.
It’s not about Reserves!
It’s all about the Production Rate!
We are not close to running out of oil
From BP Statistical Review
Gb = billions of barrels
Oil Wells Peak - Oil Fields Peak - Regions Peak - The World will peak
Everyone agrees that world oil will peak – controversy on the date
US Oil Consumption today is about 20 million barrels of oil/day
ANWAR will not save us!
Production is bell-shaped, like the curves Hubbert drew
Average price after the peak was 2.6 times higher than before
P/Q = mQ + a
Q for which P/Q = 0 is 198 gigabarrels of oil.
Also called Qt (maximum cumulative production)
Half of this is 99 which occurred in 1973
A model for exponential growth in a finite system
90% exhausted in 2011Another Approach: Cumulative Oil Production
48 + Alaska
USGS/MMS assessment 189Gb
The power of Hubbert Linearization is that it uses past
behavior of a system to indicate possible future performance rather
than relying on the overoptimistic opinions of resource “experts”
Will Be 2165 Gigabarrels
½ Qt = 1083 Gb
Ultimate Cumulative Production of Oil + Gas = 605 Gtoe
Maximum cumulative through 2100 for an IPCC scenario is 2,600 Gtoe
Energy Information Agency (EIA) - DOE
International Energy Agency (IEA) – Paris
US Geologocal Survet (USGS) - Washington
Their models for future emissions are driven by demand (not supply).
EIA, IEA and IPCC assume that supply will meet demand
USGS assumes much oil yet to be found
The EIA forecasts in 2008 projects a 30% increase in oil production between now
and 2030 (from 85 to 97 mb/d) (D = +12 mbd).
The hard truth is that increasing energy supply at all will be difficult.
To have growth we need to balance
decline of exisiting fields
with discovery of new oil
Existing oil fields are declining at - 6.7% per year (IEA 2008)
For 2005 to 2030 the world needs 45 mbd of new production –
just to maintain flat production
The projected growth requires
discovery of 45 + 12 = 57 mbd of new oil!
57 ÷ 9 = ~6+ new Saudi Arabias
Oil discoveries have been declining since 1964
The red box shows the average amount estimated to be discovered by the USGS each year between 1995 and 2025.
The world’s oil provinces have been well explored.
Future discoveries will be limited to smaller structures and deeper formations
There are supposed to be hundreds
of years of supply of coal!
Big 3 Reserves:
India, Australia, South Africa
Remarkably the data-quality is very poor globally
but especially for China and SE Asia and FSU
The Reserves may not be as large as
We’ve been led to believe.
"Present estimates of coal reserves are based upon methods that have not been reviewed or revised since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s.
Only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually minable reserves."
from the National Academy of Sciences
Report on Coal, June, 2007
The average price after the peak is 2.4 times higher than before
Britain now imports 74% of the coal it burnsUK Coal Production
from D. Rutledge
Downward trend in proved recoverable reserves
The IPCC chose to use additional recoverable reserves and they also chose 1998 (3,368Gt) instead of 1995 (680Gt) — additional recoverable reserves are now 19 times smaller than in 1998Where Does the IPCC Get Its Coal Numbers?
Many independent groups are coming WEC surveys
to the same conclusion
Uppsala – Kjell Aleklett Peak Coal in 2030
Energy Watch Group (EWG-Germany) Peak Coal in 2025
Institute of Energy (IFE)
Kavakov and Peteves (2007) The Future of Coal
Richard Heinberg Post Carbon Institute (book in progress)
Reserves BP for oil and gas WEC for coal
Fits for ultimate
Cumulative oil, gas, and coal
Ultimate Production of oil + gas + coal = 938 Gtoe
460ppm WEC surveys
50% Stretch-out for Fossil Fuel BurningCarbon-Dioxide Levels
Conclusions: WEC surveys
1) Supply Limitation will be serious
Existing scenarios and energy policies are based on emissions - not supply
We know enough to see that Resource Limitation needs to be an IPCC Scenario
Peak Oil has occurred or will occur soon. Coal Reserves are significantly less
than assumed by the IPCC.
2) Coal is thought of as a solution to energy needs –
This will be a disaster for climate change without CO2 sequestration.
Is CO2 sequestration realistic?
3) Energy will pass climate change as the hot button issue
We have to get our energy plan in order before we can move forward
on climate change
4) Energy Supply will Buffer Economic recovery
Recessions correlate with price rise results in energy > 5.7% of GDP
See Jeff Rubin (2009) (formerly CIBC)
5) Security Issue:
Seven nations control 75% of world’s oil exports.
There will be shifts in global power and wealth
Energy as a buffer on economic growth WEC surveys
James Hamilton (UCSD) – Recessions generally correlate with the price of oil.
If energy expenditures rise faster than income, then the share of income for other
things must decline
as a % of GDP
Summary Table: IPCC SRES versus Rutledge WEC surveys
All values given in Gigabarrels of Oil Equivalents (Gtoe)
1990 Identified Additional Additional Additional
Cumulative Resources Recoveries w/Technology Occurrences
Oil+Gas 120 + 612 = 732 262 (low) 679 (high) 690 >20,107 (with marine
Coal 124 + 545 = 669 1905 3571
Oil+Gas+Coal = 938
Oil + Gas = 605 (from 938 – 666)
Comparable to 732 from above
Coal = 333
Comparable to 669 above
IPCC values in ZJ, converted to Gtoe using 42 GJ/toe and 0.5 toe/t for coal
ZJ = 1021 J For oil: 7.33 barrels per metric ton
From Oil + Gas + Coal
These Scenarios drive almost all climate change research
Written by Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Colorado
This program has been used in the IPCC assessments
IPCC “most likely value” temperature sensitivity: 3C/2CO2 concentration (“likely” range is 2.0 to 4.5)
Aslam Khalil’s recent measurements for CH4 equilibrium concentration: 1,750ppb
Tom Wigley’s P50 values (IPCC scenario medians) for other greenhouse gases: deforestation CO2 , N2O, NOx, VOCs, SO2, C2F6, HFCs, SF6
Our projection for CO2 emissions from oil, gas, and coal burning.
Elasticity has become virtually zero. It’s a market where supply rules.
from Kenneth Deffeyes
IPCC scenario coal resources are based on WEC survey categories
IPCC resources have not been adjusted for the new WEC surveys
Important Reading that will change your outlook Nakicenovic
Matt Simmons (2005) Twilight in the Desert
James Kunstler (2005) The Long Emergency
Jeff Rubin (2009) Why the World is About to get a Whole Lot Smaller:
Oil and The End of Globalization
“ NakicenovicWe are all extraordinary skeptical of the "peak oil" stuff. We know of no reliable information that suggests that we're going to be running significantly short of any fossil fuel in this century…It certainly won't happen with any significant price on carbon.”
“We've done a few 300-year scenarios that have some shortages in them, but even that may not be realistic. This is especially so with coal!”“The Chinese say they have enough coal for centuries…The idea that we're only going to reach 450 ppm is not defensible, especially when we're already around 385 ppm. Do we really think there is only another 60 years of fossil fuel left? I don't think so.”
PNNL Climate Modelers
…but, see my figures!
Mad Max Excluded Nakicenovic
“The scenarios are intended to exclude catastrophic futures that involve large scale environmental or economic collapses. In such scenarios GHG emissions might be low because of negative economic growth, but it seems unlikely they would receive much attention in the light of more immediate problems. Hence, this report does not analyze such futures.”
Nested Assumptions Nakicenovic
Energy scarcity is a myth
Fossil Fuels are superabundant
No reason to hoard or fight over them
Globally traded from haves to have-nots
Coal can be converted to anything
Fuel will remain cheap for a century
What controls the price of oil? Nakicenovic
Supply versus Demand on International Market
Backwardation – during price increase
Contango – is not a place in Chile!
Possible Driver of a Future Price Crash