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Recent Improvements Towards Improving the NOAA National Air Quality Forecast Modeling Capability

Recent Improvements Towards Improving the NOAA National Air Quality Forecast Modeling Capability December 21, 2011 NOAA/OAR/ARL and NWS/NCEP/EMC Air Quality Team. Marina Tsidulko - PBL & Chemistry Verification - High Res. Met modeling

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Recent Improvements Towards Improving the NOAA National Air Quality Forecast Modeling Capability

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  1. Recent Improvements Towards Improving the NOAA National Air Quality Forecast Modeling Capability December 21, 2011 NOAA/OAR/ARL and NWS/NCEP/EMC Air Quality Team

  2. Marina Tsidulko - PBL & Chemistry Verification - High Res. Met modeling Youhua Tang - 4 km optimization, V4.7.1 development & testing - Lateral Boundary Condition studies Jianping Huang - Improved Met-chem coupling (PBL, land sfc) - National AQF System Design & Implementation - U.S. Hysplit Smoke & CMAQ AOD verification Sarah Lu - Global radiative feedback testing - NEMS inline aerosols development Ho-Chun Huang - Global aerosol system sources - Global aerosol data assimilation MariuszPagowski - Regional chemical data assimilation Jeff McQueen - AQF System Evaluation - DOD Dispersion & PBL analysis support Geoff Manikin - Hysplit smoke & dust testing & implementation CaterinaTassone - Real-time 2.5 km Boundary Layer Analysis Binbin Zhou – Dispersion/ensemble modeling for H.S. NCEP AQ Project Team

  3. NCEP Air Quality Modeling Systems

  4. Current NAM WRF-NMM (E-grid) GSI analysis 4/Day = 6 hr update Forecasts to 84 hours 12 km horizontal 12 hr pre-forecast assimilation period with 3hr updates (catch-up) New NAM NEMS based NMMB B-grid replaces E-grid MODIS based land class Parent remains 12 km to 84 hr Multiple Nests Run to 60 hr 4 km CONUS nest 6 km Alaska nest 3 km HI & PR nests Single locatable ~1.33-1.5 km to 36hr October 2011 NAM Upgrade

  5. NMMB-CMAQ NAQFC Current ConfigurationOzone Predictions Testing of PM2.5 Predictions 8 hour max ozone day 2 bias over CONUS Black: NAM-CMAQ CB IV Red: NMMB-CMAQ CB IV Dashed: NMMB-CMAQ CB05 combo1 • Emissions: • EPA CEM anthropogenic inventories • 2005 base year projected to current year w/ EGU • BEIS V3 Biogenic Emissions • Met Model: • North American Model (NAM) • Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) • 12 km 60 Levels • AQ Model: • EPA Community Model For Air Quality • CMAQ V4.6: 12 km/L22 CONUS Domain • Operational: CB04 gas-phase • Exper/Dev: CB05 C1 gas-phase/ Aero-4 aerosols • Access • Output available on National Digital Guidance Database • 48 hour forecasts from 06/12 UTC Cycles • PM graphics, GRIB files from EMC 142

  6. NMMB CMAQ Retro 2010 TestingDay 2 Ozone 8h daily maximum August 10, 2010 Case NMMB – CB-IV NMMB – combo1 NAM – CBIV Production • NMMB CB-IV runs: • Improved along Long Island Sound • Underpredicted Max O3 over Baltimore-Washington areas • NMMB CB05 combo1 run: (improved Vd, PBL limits, chemlbcs) • Worse over NE (e.g.: Upstate NY, Mass)

  7. NMMB-CMAQ 2010 Retro Testing Sub-regions 8h-max O3 Black: NAM-CMAQ CB IV (Production) Red: NMMB-CMAQ CB IV Dashed: NMMB-CMAQ CB05 combo1 North East South West Northeast RMSE Southwest RMSE • NMMB-CBIV & CB05 worse than Production over North East • NMMB-CBIV & CB05 better than Production over South West

  8. Diurnal Cycle 1 hr O3 BIAS (ppb) August 2010 West vs East Western US Eastern US • Early morning error spike for only NMMB runs in East • Early morning error spike for all runs in West • Deeper PBLH in NMMB mixes down residual pollutant air mass

  9. Contributions to early morning O3 spike (Jianping Huang, EMC) Difference plot : (NMMB CB05 combo1) Minus (wrf-nmm CB05 combo1) (NMMB CB05 combo1) 8 am local 8 am local Legend: Latitudinal Cross-section on Philadelphia, PA. Vertical black line indicates location of Philadelphia, PA. (NMMB CB05 combo1) 10 am local 10 am local Stronger fumigation for nmmb in morning O3 concentration (ppb) Y-Z cross-section at Philadelphia traversed W-E 600km on Aug 21, 2010

  10. NMMB-CMAQ 2011 Verification Daily 8 hr Max ozone Eastern U.S. Errors for Day 2 NAM-CBIV (Production) NMMB-CBIV NAM-CBO5 (Experimental) NMMB-CB05 Combo1 Fraction Correct > 75 PPB by day Fraction Correct by Threshold • NMMB CB-IV best • All runs overestimate O3 • NMMB CB05-Combo1 improved over • Experiimental run • Largest errors from 7/18 – 7/23/11 8 hravg diurnal error

  11. NMMB Met Evaluation 2m RH vs 1 h ozone 33 hour forecasts valid 21:00 UTC Obs RH Obs Ozone NMMB RH CB-IV Ozone CB05 Combo1 Ozone EAST WEST • NMMB RH forecasts good • High RH correlated with lower ozone in Mid July • Clouds ?

  12. NMMB Gulf and SE States 2m RH vs 1 h ozone 33 hour forecasts valid 2100 UTC Obs RH Obs Ozone NMMB RH CB-IV Ozone CB05 Combo1 Ozone Gulf of Mexico South East • High RH correlated with lower observed ozone and largest model overprediction • esp July 15, 26, 31

  13. NMMB Met Evaluation 10 m wind speed vs 1 h ozone July 2011 Diurnal forecast means Obs Wind Speed Obs Ozone NMMB Wind Speed CB-IV Ozone CB05 Combo1 Ozone WEST EAST West : Wind Speed under-predicted, Ozone under-predicted East : Wind Speed over-predicted, Ozone over-predicted

  14. NMMB 12 km Parent and 4 km Nest July 2011 Diurnal PBL Height Evaluation West East • RI# based PBLHs: Little difference between predictions, Near 0 at night • NMMB TKE based PBLH higher but lower 4 km PBLH Marina Tsidulko

  15. Evaluation Summary • Met Model Characteristics can have a Large Impact on AQ • NEMS NMMB Behaviors • Improved temperature, Td forecasts • More boundary layer mixing in AM • Improved moisture forecasts in West • East : Moist bias, wind over-prediction • 12 km : Higher daytime PBLH than • NAM & Nest • Met Impacts on AQ • In East, O3 overprediction coincides with • Over-predicted winds • High RH conditions • Except Gulf region when RHs & Temps are very oppressive • Liquid Particle conversions ?? • Improved metrices – AQME II • FC needed for NAQFC evaluation but is weighted by non-events • Evaluation of Vertical profiles of Meteorology and Air Quality

  16. NMMB Coupling ExperimentsImpact of PBL schemes8h Daily Max O3, August 10, 2010 Jianping Huang Default: ACM2 PBL & Kh Hybrid: TKE PBL only Common: NMMB TKE PBLH & NMMB Khfor neutral/stable conditions Hybrid: NMMB Ri# PBL Only

  17. NMMB-CMAQ w/ smoke sources Discover-AQ Evaluation Youhua Tang CO overpredicted for fire events esp. below 3km July 27, 2011 Isoprene strongly underpredicted

  18. NRT NGAC configurationSarah Lu Experimental • EMC parallel on NCEP’s CCS (dev) • Executable compiled from NEMS code repository • 120-hr dust-only forecast once per day (00Z) • ICs: Aerosols from previous day forecast and meteorology from operational GDAS • 3-hourly products: 3d distribution of dust aerosols (5 bins from 0.1 – 10 µm) • Automatic output archive, post-processing and web update since June 11, 2011 • Same physics and dynamics as operational GFS with the following exceptions: • Lower resolution (T126 L64) • Use Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme [Moorthi and Suarez, 1999] with convective transport and tracer scavenging • Turn off aerosol-radiation feedback

  19. Aerosol Lateral Boundary Conditions: 2010 Trans-Atlantic dust transport Verification with AIRNOW surface PM observations shows significant improvements using dynamic LBCs from GFS-GOCART • Left panel: Dust influx at CMAQ boundaries from NGAC simulations • Right panel: Baseline CMAQ simulation with static LBCs versus experimental CMAQ simulations with dynamic LBCs from NGAC and off-line GFS-GOCART Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu and Ho-Chun Huang

  20. 2012 Plans • Improve NMMB – CMAQ O3/PM performance • ImplementV4.7.1 tight vertical coupling by Late March, 2012 • Improve Biogenic emissions • Hybrid PBL Tests, Winter-time PBL behavior • Couple deposition velocity computations w/ NOAH LSM • Retrospective runs vs Discover-AQ period (Isoprene, CO biases) • Improve Inclusion of smoke, dust sources into CMAQ V4.7.1 • Plume rise calibrations, smoke plume vertical mixing • Inclusion of dust • NGAC LBCs • Ground/satellite data for evaluation • & assimilation • Improve AIRNOW DA in GSI • Add MODIS AOD DA • CALIPSO aerosol backscatter • OMI/TESozone profiles • 4 km NAQFC model development • Updated emission sources from ARL/EPA • Integrate IBM optimized code & begin R-T testing • Evaluation of NMMB CONUS nest Met and CMAQ • Improvements along coasts, in complex terrain ? • More consistent physics, more frequent met updates or avgd met.

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