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ICES CM 2003/V:07. An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre Danish Institute for Fisheries Research. Department of Marine Fisheries. ICES CM 2003/V:07. An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

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An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre

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ICES CM 2003/V:07

An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

Per Sparre

Danish Institute for Fisheries Research.

Department of Marine Fisheries.


ICES CM 2003/V:07

An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

Toolbox of Visual Basic routines EXCEL user-interface

Mixed fisheries and assessment of the effect of management

Deterministic and stochastic simulation.

User-friendly software, Stand-alone ordinary ECEL-workbook

Open source Visual Basic sub-routines,

Can be inspected and modified by the user.

The highest degree of transparency of code

Comprehensive on-line help-facility and user’s manual.


COMPONENTS OF THE TOOL-BOX (TEMAS *)

a) ICES Prediction model (Basic model)

  • combined with:

    • b) A simple micro-economic model

    • c) A model of fisher’s behaviour

*) TEMAS Project: Technical Measures – Development of evaluation

model and application in Danish fisheries.


Multi species

Multi Fleet

MultiArea


Migration of fish


Biology - Economy


STOCHASTIC SIMULATION


EXCEL

application

"TEMAS"

Note: This is not a commercial for Microsoft Office. (EXCEL has bugs by the thousands, and behave strangely! - but everybody has it)


Dimensions of TEMAS


VISUAL BASIC

OPEN SOURCE – USER FRIENDLY CODE


Fleet Input


Vessel - Dynamics


Capacity Rules


1

Reaction to technical management measures

2

Reaction to non-technical management measures

3

Reaction to costs and prices.

4

Reaction to the range and equipment of vessels.

5

Reaction to availability of resources

Trip-Related Behaviour

short term

Structure-Related Behaviour

long term

SURVEY OF BEHAVIOUR RULES IN TEMAS

Reaction of fisheries advisers (ICES).


Example of behaviour rule: Where to fish ?

CHOICE COMPOSED OF TRADITION and CURRENT SITUATION

General behaviour model: Random Utility Model

Estimation procedure: General Logit model.


Comparison of alternative

management regimes

E.g. quota management and effort management

(Ulrich et al. 2002)


THE END


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