ICES CM 2003/V:07
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ICES CM 2003/V:07. An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre Danish Institute for Fisheries Research. Department of Marine Fisheries. ICES CM 2003/V:07. An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

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An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre

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An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

ICES CM 2003/V:07

An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

Per Sparre

Danish Institute for Fisheries Research.

Department of Marine Fisheries.


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

ICES CM 2003/V:07

An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

Toolbox of Visual Basic routines EXCEL user-interface

Mixed fisheries and assessment of the effect of management

Deterministic and stochastic simulation.

User-friendly software, Stand-alone ordinary ECEL-workbook

Open source Visual Basic sub-routines,

Can be inspected and modified by the user.

The highest degree of transparency of code

Comprehensive on-line help-facility and user’s manual.


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

COMPONENTS OF THE TOOL-BOX (TEMAS *)

a) ICES Prediction model (Basic model)

  • combined with:

    • b) A simple micro-economic model

    • c) A model of fisher’s behaviour

*) TEMAS Project: Technical Measures – Development of evaluation

model and application in Danish fisheries.


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Multi species

Multi Fleet

MultiArea


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Migration of fish


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Biology - Economy


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

STOCHASTIC SIMULATION


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

EXCEL

application

"TEMAS"

Note: This is not a commercial for Microsoft Office. (EXCEL has bugs by the thousands, and behave strangely! - but everybody has it)


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Dimensions of TEMAS


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

VISUAL BASIC

OPEN SOURCE – USER FRIENDLY CODE


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Fleet Input


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Vessel - Dynamics


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Capacity Rules


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

1

Reaction to technical management measures

2

Reaction to non-technical management measures

3

Reaction to costs and prices.

4

Reaction to the range and equipment of vessels.

5

Reaction to availability of resources

Trip-Related Behaviour

short term

Structure-Related Behaviour

long term

SURVEY OF BEHAVIOUR RULES IN TEMAS

Reaction of fisheries advisers (ICES).


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Example of behaviour rule: Where to fish ?

CHOICE COMPOSED OF TRADITION and CURRENT SITUATION

General behaviour model: Random Utility Model

Estimation procedure: General Logit model.


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

Comparison of alternative

management regimes

E.g. quota management and effort management

(Ulrich et al. 2002)


An excel based software toolbox for stochastic fleet based forecast per sparre

THE END


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