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Programme Analysis

Programme Analysis. Programme Analysis. Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraint Annual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan. Programme Analysis is concerned with the preparation

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Programme Analysis

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  1. Programme Analysis

  2. Programme Analysis • Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraint • Annual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan Programme Analysis is concerned with the preparation of single or multi-year road work and expenditure programmes under specified budget constraints.

  3. Multi-Year work programme • Method: use specified standards to screen network & identify candidate projects, e.g. • road sections which exceed specified condition • roads with inadequate capacity • pavements which need strengthening • upgrade pavements with high traffic volumes

  4. Procedure • Select candidate road projects • Determine maintenance or improvement options • Specify budget limits & periods • Optimise using selected objective • Produce optimal list of projects for budget period

  5. Multi-year Programme ... • Method • Life Cycle Analysis • Budget Period Analysis • Objective functions • maximise NPV • maximise road network condition improvement • Constraints • budget limits (capital, recurrent, etc.)

  6. Analysis Procedure Total Enumeration Life Cycle Analysis Minimise Cost NPV IRI Inputs Results Incremental Analysis Budget Period Analysis

  7. Capital Budgeting Independent Projects: • unrelated road projects e.g. from different parts of the country, Mutually Exclusive Projects: • alternatives to one project where only one can be selected.

  8. Capital Budgeting Rules When sufficient funds are available • Select all independent projects with NPV > 0 • Select mutually exclusive project alternatives with the highest NPV When there is a shortage of funds; • Select independent projects with the highest NPV/Cost ratio • Select mutually exclusive projects using the incremental NPV/Cost method.

  9. Prioritisation

  10. Incremental Analysis

  11. Efficiency Frontier • BENEFITS Opt 4 Opt 5 Opt 3 Opt 2 Opt 1 Opt 0 • COST

  12. Efficiency Frontier BENEFITS A4 A5 A3 A2 Priority by slope: 1. B1 2. A1 3. A2 4. A3 5. B3 6. A4 7. A5 B3 B4 B1 B2 A1 A, B - Independent Projects 1,2,3,.. - Mutually Exclusive PROJECT COST

  13. Budget Period Analysis • Life Cycle analysis involves long term predictions • Assumes budgets are committed long term • Total benefits assume future periodic maintenance will be done • Budget period analysis quantifies relative benefits within short term periods

  14. BUDGET PERIOD ANALYSIS Budget Period Analysis Budget Period IRI Estimated Benefits TIME

  15. Multi-Year Work Programme Road No. (km) Work Type Year ($m) S($m) A10031 12.5 Reconstruct 2001 5.4 5.4 A10004 23.4 Resurface 2001 2.9 8.3 B30106 19.8 Reconstruct 2001 8.6 16.9 A20122 5.5 Patch&Reseal 2001 1.4 18.3 : : : : : : A11028 34.5 Reconstruct 2002 13.8 13.8 C34567 22.6 Reconstruct 2002 9.7 23.5 : : : : : : B32109 15.0 Resurface 2003 4.2 4.2 C76543 36.9 Overlay 2003 24.1 28.3 : : : : : :

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