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Traffic Model System and Emission Calculations of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council

Traffic Model System and Emission Calculations of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council. General information about the area. Location of Helsinki in Europe. Definitions of areal divisions. YTV area includes the cities of Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen.

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Traffic Model System and Emission Calculations of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council

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  1. Traffic Model System and Emission Calculations of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council Timo Elolähde

  2. General information about the area Timo Elolähde

  3. Location of Helsinki in Europe Timo Elolähde

  4. Definitions of areal divisions YTV area includes the cities of Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen. Surrounding areas include eight municipalities around the YTV area. Helsinki region = YTV area + surrounding area = 12 municipalities Metropolitan area is used to describe an area contained within approximately a 100 kilometre radius from Helsinki. It consists of 72 municipalities. Timo Elolähde

  5. Hämeenlinna PKS YTV Lahti 47,000 commuters in 1980 Mikkeli Tampere Kotka Hämeenlinna YTV Lahti Tammisaari Proportion of commuters in the municipality’s work force 88,000 commuters in 1990 Kotka Turku Over 35 % 10 - 35 % 2 - 10 % YTV Tammisaari 108,000 commuters in 2002 Commuting in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area 1980–2002 Timo Elolähde

  6. 400000 200000 Population and the number of jobs in the YTV Area 980 300 185 400 95 000 800000 570 700 600000 Vantaa 227 400 104 000 559 000 Helsinki Espoo 369 000 0 8 500 Population Jobs 31.12.2004 31.12.2003 in YTV area 2 700 Kauniainen Timo Elolähde

  7. YTV area target network in 2030 Timo Elolähde

  8. Journeys (1000/day) Share taken by public transport (%) 100 1 500 Private car 75 66 1 000 53 50 42 (38) 39 39 Public transport 500 25 0 0 1966 1976 1988 1995 2000 2005 1966 1976 1988 1995 2000 2005 Journeys made daily by public transport and by car within the YTV area Timo Elolähde

  9. Traffic model system Timo Elolähde

  10. Traffic is divided into three parts internal trips made by the inhabitants of the region trips generated by Helsinki-Vantaa airport (air passengers and employees) external trips (cars only) freight transport (vans and lorries) Modes walk, bicycle public transit car (as driver or passenger) Trip categories home-based work trips home-based school trips other home-based trips non-home-based trips Time periods morning peak hour average hour of the day evening peak hour Traffic model system Timo Elolähde

  11. Traffic model system Tools • Emme/2 macros (contain Unix file handling commands) • SAS programs (preparation of input, writing some macros) • FORTRAN programs (summary of results) • Unix scripts (renaming output files) Timo Elolähde

  12. Feedback in the four-step model system Timo Elolähde

  13. Model types Timo Elolähde

  14. Logit model and logsum Timo Elolähde

  15. Mode choice models nr of transfers, transit travel time, transit or car travel cost, transit or car parking place availability (arriving trips / parking place) parking cost cars/household ln(distance), walk or bicycle distance 0-5 km, walk or bicycle distance 5-10 km, walk or bicycle dummy variables Destination choice models logsum of mode choice scale factor (inhabitants, jobs) ln(jobs) dummy variables Variables used in models Timo Elolähde

  16. Mode combinations possible Influence of the number of modes (ms149, ms199, ms249, ms299) on text registers and description fields of matrices (e.g. ”morning peak %t2% work trips”) Timo Elolähde

  17. Principles applied in coding macros • The same selection of possible variables in all models (except school trips) • No constants in the model formulas but the coefficients of the models are in scalars • Systematics in matrix numbers • If a variable is not in the model, its coefficient is zero • Only the number of the first input matrix is given as a macro parameter, other consecutive numbers are calculated (e.g. nr of transfers in matrix %2%, transit time in matrix r2=%2%+1) • Logical scalars (school trip models in macro school_%ms250%.mac, where ms250=96 or ms250=2001) Timo Elolähde

  18. Scalars containing the coefficients Timo Elolähde

  19. Why? Do you want to copy and paste this section 24 times and edit the parts which are underlined? Solution: Give the changing part as data cards and write the rest of the macro with a SAS program (or with some programming language). 1 y ms311 y wt24h home-based work trips ~?q=1 y mf301 y gn01,gn04 o + + ~?b=1 2 Writing an Emme/2 macro with a SAS program Timo Elolähde

  20. Essential parts of the SAS program filename outfi2 'K:\Emme2\summary_matr_demo2.mac'; data matr; length mxnro msnro $ 5 name $ 6 descr $ 40; input mxnro $ 4-8 msnro $ 10-14 name $ 16-21 descr $ 23-62 ; cards; mo09 ms301 nrinha total nr of inhabitants mf301 ms311 wt24h home-based work trips 24h ms999 last line ; data _null_; set matr; file outfi2; if _N_ = 1 then do; put "~#" / "~#** calculate sums of vectors" / " 3.21" ; end; Timo Elolähde

  21. Essential parts of the SAS program nro = substr(msnro,3,3); if (nro ne '999') then do; put "~# *** matrix " _N_ " *** " ; put " 1" / " y" / msnro $ 2-6 / " y" / name $ 2-7 / descr $ 2-41 / "~?q=1" / " y" // mxnro $ 2-6 /// " y" ; if (substr(mxnro,1,2) = 'mo') then put " gn01,gn04" // " +" ; else if nro in ('311') then put " gn01,gn04" // " o" // " +" / " +" ; put "~?b=1" / " 2" ; end; if nro = '999' then do; put " q" / "~#** output the list of scalars" / " reports=summary_matr_demo.txt" / " 3.14" / " 2" / " ms" / "~?b=1" / " 2" / " q" / " reports=%1%" / "~/ *** summary_matr_demo.mac ***" ; end; run; Timo Elolähde

  22. Estimation of models Timo Elolähde

  23. Traffic surveys Internal trips • trips made by the inhabitants of the YTV area (four cities) during one day (24 h) in autumn 2000 • personal trip diary interview, 8,666 persons and 28,553 trips Trips generated by Helsinki-Vantaa airport • 875 air passengers and 801 employees (flying and non-flying) • survey made in autumn 2001 External trips and freight transport • origin-destination study made in autumn 1988 Timo Elolähde

  24. Model estimation Internal trips • estimation made by Ms Nina Karasmaa (Helsinki University of Technology, Transportation Engineering) • Alogit program • More than 50 model sets were estimated and tested • Differences e.g. in number of modes and model hierarchy (mode choice after destination choice or vice versa) • Three modes in the model set selected. Trips generated by Helsinki-Vantaa airport • estimation made by Mr Jyrki Rinta-Piirto (Strafica Ltd) External trips and freight transport • models estimated in 1990 are based in changes in land use. Timo Elolähde

  25. Emission calculations Timo Elolähde

  26. ”Minor” problem in emission calculations • Traffic models produce demand matrices for three weekday hours. • Finnish Meteorological Institute needs emissions for every hour of the year for dispersion calculations. Timo Elolähde

  27. Principle of emission calculations Timo Elolähde

  28. Tools Emme/2 macros (contain Unix file handling commands) FORTRAN programs (copying or interpolation from link data of 10+7+7 hours to 14+17+17 hours and summary of results) Unix scripts (dialog of FORTRAN run, renaming output files) Emission factors fuel consumption, CO2, SO2, NOx, particles (PM), CO, HC polynomial functions of average speed (from assignment) Emission calculations Timo Elolähde

  29. Examples of emission factors:NOx emissions of cars and vans Timo Elolähde

  30. Examples of emission factors:NOx emissions of trucks and buses Timo Elolähde

  31. Examples of emission factors:CO2 emissions of cars and vans Timo Elolähde

  32. Examples of emission factors:CO2 emissions of trucks and buses Timo Elolähde

  33. Proportions of vehicle types in emission calculations (volau) Timo Elolähde

  34. Proportions of vehicle types in emission calculations (volad and bus) Timo Elolähde

  35. Regression models in emission calculations • The regression models have been estimated using volume counts on four cordon lines. • For auto assignment, the volumes (car+van and truck) for each hour of the day (10+7+7) are used as regressands and three forecasted hours (morning peak, evening peak and an average hour of the day) as regressors of the model. The models are used for calculating the demand matrices for each hour. • For transit assignment, the bus volumes for each hour of the day (3*24) are used as regressands and two forecasted hours (morning peak and an average hour of the day) as regressors of the model. The models are used for calculating the link volumes and emissions for each hour. Timo Elolähde

  36. Emission calculations • emission on regular link [kg/h] = volume [veh/h] * length [km] * emission [g/km/veh] / 1000 • cold starts (three classes of motor temperature) and emissions of connector links handled as emissions of the area (in the centroid) • example of copying and interpolation of the emission (from 10+7+7 hours to 14+17+17 hours) Timo Elolähde

  37. Principle of emission calculations (repeated) Timo Elolähde

  38. Thank you for your patience and interest! Any questions? Timo Elolähde

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