Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview
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Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago October 26, 2011. Roadmap. Performance Population Income Unemployment Economic Structure Agriculture Manufacturing Retirement/recreation Education Challenges and Opportunities.

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Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

October 26, 2011


Roadmap

  • Performance

    • Population

    • Income

    • Unemployment

  • Economic Structure

    • Agriculture

    • Manufacturing

    • Retirement/recreation

    • Education

  • Challenges and Opportunities


Population


U.S. population still urbanizing


Population “rural” is fairly close across U.S. regions


Population growth varies much across counties

Source: ERS “Atlas of Rural and Small-town America.”


“Ruralness” varies greatly; being adjacent to highways and metro areas has mattered to growth (historically)

Source: ERS, “Atlas of Rural and Small-town America”


District and Wisconsin population


Indiana and Iowa population


Illinois and Michigan


Income


Per capita income in metro vs. non-metro in U.S. largely same spread since 1969


Economic conditions vary

Persistent poverty 1970-2000

Source: ERS, “Atlas”


District incomes apace since 1969, while WI moved ahead this decade


Michigan is faring well lately, while IA is catching up to lagging decade(s)


Non-metro counties have also lagged in IL and IN, with recent gains


Unemployment


Economic conditions vary

Unemployment 2010

Source: ERS, “Atlas”


Unemployment runs apace in the District, with WI non-metro URs usually higher


Non-metro URs also higher in IA and MI


IL non-metro has been “spot on” while non-metro runs higher in Indiana


Roadmap

  • Performance

    • Population

    • Income

    • Unemployment

  • Economic Structure

    • Agriculture

    • Manufacturing

    • Retirement/recreation

    • Education

  • Challenges and Opportunities


Agriculture


Farm productivity


7th District Crop Yield Indexes(1964=100)

Corn

Soybeans


Real Crop Prices


The farm economy recovery – the basis of rising asset prices?


Real farm earnings have been leading other sectors in most District states


Indiana and Illinois


Iowa and Michigan


Farm Operator Income—Over time, as farms have dwindled and consolidated, proprietors’ income has grown, and non-farm income has become increasingly important


Many small farms subsist on non-farm income—either with one or more working non-farm jobs, or “hobby farms”


Only large farms and very small farms are growing;Most farmland accounted for by very large farms

Source: ERS


Manufacturing


Farm dependent counties (20 Percent of more of income); Mfg dependent counties (30 percent or more)


Wisconsin non-metros have fared “well” in mfg. And value-added mfg. in food processing:


Manufacturing Share of Jobs, 1969; Non-metro counties


Manufacturing Share of Jobs, 2009; Non-metro counties


Still, manufacturing jobs shrink in relative importance…..so rural areas remain challenged


Declining jobs have fared “less worse” in District’s non-metro areas since 1969


Michigan has fared the worst, Iowa the best


Illinois rural manufacturing has performed especially poorly, losing one-half since 1969


Manufacturing is no exception—education/skills matter to keeping or growing jobs


Education pays, be it services or goods production, metro or non-metro


Educational attainment higher in metropolitan counties in U.S., with gains in both places


Low-education non-metro counties are rare in the Midwest


Nonetheless, few non-metro counties exceed their own statewide average in attainment.Share with Some College Education,Non-metro Counties


Retirement/Recreation


Population Growth by Amenities


Recreation/retirement counties


Govt/retirement


Population growth varies much across counties

Source: ERS “Atlas of Rural and Small-town America.”


Where do Walworth County’s vacationers come in from?

Source: Kenneth Johnson.


At end: Find your own roadmap, hopefully, the conversations at this conference will help

  • Performance

    • Population

    • Income

    • Unemployment

  • Economic Structure

    • Agriculture

    • Manufacturing

    • Retirement/recreation

    • Education

  • Challenges and Opportunities

    • Health Care

    • Immigration

    • Financial network/venture capital

    • Infrastructure

    • Housing

    • Attracting and retaining workers

    • Research and wise policy


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