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Planning and Decision-Making. http://www.ideachampions.com/weblogs/decision-making-processes1.jpg. How do human factors influence the CIMIC process?. My background. 1998 M.A. Political Science – Münster Social Science Center Berlin 2004 Ph.D. 2008 Federal Academy for Security Policy

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planning and decision making

Planning and Decision-Making

http://www.ideachampions.com/weblogs/decision-making-processes1.jpg

How do human factors influence the CIMIC process?

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

my background
My background
  • 1998 M.A. Political Science – Münster
  • Social Science Center Berlin
  • 2004 Ph.D.
  • 2008 Federal Academy for Security Policy
  • 2010 Regensburg University of Applied Science
  • 1997 Scientific analyst for security organization
  • 2003 IABG HF Team Program Manager
  • Consultant

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

take home messages
Take home messages
  • Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected.
  • Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving.
  • CI ≠ MI - SOP business.
  • CIMIC needs a shared situational awareness.
  • CIMIC means bridging the cultural differences.

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

slide5

Human Factor is…

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead1
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

more psychology in political science
More Psychology in Political Science
  • Information processing “…is wide open to irrational, nonrational intuitive, and affective influences, biases, and errors, especially in environments and issue-areas like international politics where uncertainty and complexity prevail.“(1)
  • „Ich halte die mangelnde Aufmerksamkeit der IB für diese Theorietradition, die manchmal bis zur totalen Abwehr reicht, für einen großen Fehler.“(2)
  • Situation factors:
    • Time constraints, information constraints, ambiguity, familiarity, accountability, risk, stress, dynamic vs. static-setting, interactive setting (3)

2(Krell 2003:357) 3(Mintz&DeRouen Jr. 2010:26)

1(Vertzberger 1990:343)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

basis of the modeling approach theory of human action organization d rner

Goal Elaboration

Intentions

Task / Problem

Information Gathering

Perception

Environment

Mental Modelling

Prognosis

Group

(Protocol-)Memory

Planning

Frictions

Competence

Decision / Acting

Effect Control

Time Pressure

Emotions

(Self-)Reflection

Basis of the Modeling Approach: Theory of Human Action Organization (Dörner)

Internal Factors

External Factors

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

d rner boyd and hdv

Goal Elaboration

Information Gathering

Lagefeststellung

Observe

Mental Modelling

Prognosis

Planung

Orient

Planning

Decide

Decision / Acting

Befehlsgebung

Act

Effect Control

Kontrolle

(Self-)Reflection

Dörner, Boyd, and HDV

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

the policy cycle
The Policy Cycle

Policy Cycle

(John 1998, Sabatier 1999, McCormick 2006, Richardson 2006, Hague & Harrop 2007)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead2
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

intentions objectives actions
Intentions, objectives, actions

Safety

Security

Certainty

Power

Cohesion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

intentions objectives actions1
Intentions, objectives, actions

Competencies / Skills

Reliability

Protection

Alliance / Coalition

Expectations / Scenarios

Safety

Security

Certainty

Power

Cohesion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

intentions objectives actions2
Intentions, objectives, actions

Electoral Success

Economic Welfare

Domestic Support

Building Coalition

Social Welfare

Standards

Infrastructure

Safety

Security

Certainty

Power

Cohesion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

intentions objectives actions3
Intentions, objectives, actions

Electoral Success

Economic Welfare

Domestic Support

Building Coalition

Social Welfare

Standards

Infrastructure

Safety

Security

Certainty

Power

Cohesion

Past / History

Start Situation

Available Operators / Plan

Instrumentality

Goal Situation

Estimated Time

Remaining Time

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

intentions objectives actions4
Intentions, objectives, actions

Electoral Success

Economic Welfare

Domestic Support

Building Coalition

Social Welfare

Standards

Infrastructure

Safety

Security

Certainty

Power

Cohesion

Urgency

Importance

Competence

Action Tendency

Past / History

Start Situation

Available Operators / Plan

Instrumentality

Goal Situation

Estimated Time

Remaining Time

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

intentions objectives actions5
Intentions, objectives, actions

Economic cooperation in a specific domain

Political cooperation in a specific domain

Military cooperation in a specific domain

Electoral Success

Economic Welfare

Domestic Support

Building Coalition

Social Welfare

Standards

Infrastructure

Safety

Security

Certainty

Power

Cohesion

Urgency

Importance

Competence

Action Tendency

Past / History

Start Situation

Available Operators / Plan

Instrumentality

Goal Situation

Estimated Time

Remaining Time

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead3
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

situation awareness endsley
Situation Awareness - Endsley

http://www.google.de/url?source=imgres&ct=img&q=http://images.wikia.com/psychology/images/6/61/Endsley-SA-model.jpg&sa=X&ei=RGvATc9Ljca0Buqy3PIO&ved=0CAQQ8wc4Aw&usg=AFQjCNEi4OkT4z0EeoC5fI3sd5oYutplGg

(Endsley 2003)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

common understanding
Common understanding

Expert Group1

Expert Group 2

Expert Group 3

Expert Group 5

Expert Group 4

+

+

+

+

=

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

shared understanding
Shared understanding

Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

Committee

+

+

+

+

=

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

slide23

Common

Shared

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

=

=

=

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead4
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

logic of failure d rner schaub et al

Goal Elaboration

Thematic Vagabonding

Information Gathering

Information Channelling

Mental Modelling

Reductive Hypothesis

Prognosis

Linear Extrapolation

Planning

Plan Optimism

Decision / Acting

Over-Dosage

Effect Control

Neglect

(Self-)Reflection

Lack of Lessons Learned

Logic of Failure (Dörner, Schaub et al.)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

group think
Group Think
  • B-2
  • Provocative Situational Context
  • High stress from external threats with low hope of a better solution than the leader’s
  • Low self-esteem temporarily induced by:
    • Recent failures that make members’ inadequacies salient.
    • Excessive Difficulties on current decision-making tasks that lower each member’s sense of self-efficacy
    • Moral dilemmas: apparent lack of feasible alternatives except ones that violate ethical standards
    • etc.

A

Decision makers Constitute a Cohesive Group

  • B-1
  • Structural Faults of Organization
  • Insulation of the group
  • Lack of tradition of imperial leadership
  • Lack of norms requiring methodical procedures
  • Homogeneity of members social background and ideology
  • etc.

Concurrence-Seeking

  • D
  • Symptoms of Defective
  • Decision-making
  • Gross omissions in survey of objectives
  • Gross omission in surevey of alternatives
  • Poor information search
  • Selective bias in processing information at hand
  • Failure to reconsinder originally rejected alternatives
  • Failure to examine some major costs and risks of preferred choice
  • Failure to work out detailed implementation, monitoring and contingency plans
  • C
  • Symptoms of Groupthink
  • Type I: Overestimating the
  • group
  • Illusion of invulnerability
  • Belief in inherent morality of the group
  • Type II: Closed-mindedness
  • Collective Rationalizations
  • Stereotypes of out groups
  • Type III: Pressures toward uniformity
  • Self-censorship
  • illusion of unanimanity
  • Direct pressure on dissenters
  • Self-appointed mind guards

E

Low Probability of Successful Outcome

(Janis 1989:59)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead5
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

nnec p 64
NNEC (p. 64)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

nnec p 66
NNEC (p.66)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

nnec p 70
NNEC (p.70)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead6
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

badke schaub frankenberg
Badke-Schaub / Frankenberg

Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

cooperative solution search
Cooperative solution search

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

deficient goal analysis
Deficient goal analysis

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

successful solution search
Successful solution search

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

successful solution decision
Successful solution decision

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

deficient solution decision
Deficient solution decision

Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

way ahead7
Way ahead
  • What is Human Factor?
  • Cognitive psychology: action organization!
  • Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
  • Situational awareness – common and shared?!
  • Logic of failure…and more.
  • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
  • Empirical Findings – Design Groups
  • Conclusion

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

take home messages1
Take home messages
  • Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected.
  • Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving.
  • CI ≠ MI - SOP business.
  • CIMIC needs a shared situational awareness.
  • CIMIC means bridging the cultural differences.

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

questions discussion
Questions / Discussion

http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/left_right.jpg

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

back up
Back Up

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

ci cs type of reaction thomas
CI / CS type of reaction (Thomas)
  • Ignorant
  • Universalist
  • Man of action
  • Potenzializer

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

phases of cultural shock oberg 1960
Phases of cultural shock (Oberg 1960)
  • Honeymoon
  • Crisis
  • Recovery
  • Adjustment

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

slide45

„Intercultural competence requires an ability to move beyond sterotypes and to respond to the individual.“ (Lustig / Koester 2003, S. 154)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

nnec p 641
NNEC (p. 64)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

nnec p 661
NNEC (p.66)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

nnec p 701
NNEC (p.70)

Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

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