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Guanghua Wan Principal Economist

Guanghua Wan Principal Economist. Main Messages . Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in several aspects … leading to enormous challenges possibly including environmental degradation But urbanization can help!

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Guanghua Wan Principal Economist

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  1. Guanghua Wan Principal Economist

  2. Main Messages • Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in several aspects • … leading to enormous challenges possibly including environmental degradation • But urbanization can help! • To ensure a win-win scenario, green urbanization policies shall exploit unique features of Asia’s urbanization and late comer’s advantage

  3. Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented 1 billion Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

  4. Unique feature 1: very fast speed 210 years 10% 49% 105 years 9% 51% 150 years 51% 12% 95 years 51% 11% 90 years 50% 12% 65 years 12% 54% 60 years 52% 10% 55 years 10% 51% 11% 61 years 51% Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

  5. Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world… Asia & the Pacific (17/25) Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa Source: www.citymayors.com

  6. Unique feature 3: many megacities Megacities, 2010 ASIA: 12/23 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

  7. Unique feature 4: low starting base Northern America 67% 63% Europe 52% WORLD Latin America & Caribbean 43% ASIA & PACIFIC Africa Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

  8. Unique feature 5: the largest cities are likely to grow bigger Ratio of Population in Largest Cities over Urban Population (%) Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

  9. … thus more and bigger megacities are emerging Megacities, 2025 ASIA: 21/37 Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty. Source: UN (2012).

  10. Unprecedented urbanization poses enormous challenges already serious • Growing inequalities • Rising urban crimes • Expansion of slums • Above all, environmental degradation • Pollution • Vulnerability to flooding

  11. 67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non-Asian) cities fail to meet EU air quality standard EU standard Source: WHO (2012).

  12. CO2 emissions grow fast in Asia Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

  13. … and three of the top five CO2 emitting economies are in Asia.

  14. Environment may degrade further with growth Asia’s Environmental Kuznets Curve 2010=$6,107 Peak=$40,971 Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

  15. CO2 emissions may triple under the business-as-usual scenario Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

  16. Asia is more vulnerable to coastal flooding Risk of Coastal Flooding by Region, 2000 Source: ADB estimates based on McGranahan et al. 2007.

  17. Coastal flooding is clustered in PRC, South & Southeast Asia: Top 15 cities, 2000 Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

  18. Inland flooding is also serious: Top 15 cities, 2000 Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

  19. Vulnerability will rise with urbanization Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

  20. Unique features of Asian urbanization make challenges more serious... • Low level = a long way to go • Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn • More & bigger megacities = hard to manage • More slums = higher vulnerability

  21. But, urban agglomeration can help • Service sector pollutes less • Manufacturers relocate • Efficient provision of infrastructure and services • Better quality of life • Innovation and higher labor productivity • Nurture property owners and middle clss • And ...

  22. The growth/composition/technical impacts of urbanization on environment • The growth impact may be negative • The composition effect is positive • Technical effect is also positive • Most importantly, Asia as a late comer can leapfrog R&D and technology • … and for adopting regulations timely

  23. Environment-Urbanization relation has improved over time Environment-Urbanization Curves PM10 CO2 1990s 1990s 2000s 2000s Source: ADB estimates.

  24. Green urbanization can help shift the curves further • Unique patterns of urbanization lead to megacities with satellite cities: ToD, BRT, green/compact/eco- cities concepts • Exploit late comer advantage: import or R&D, smart grid, circular economy, clean energy, …. • Timely introduction of regulations, and better financing and transparency: pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap & trade, reduce subsidies, increased block tariffs, …

  25. Conclusions • It is counter-productive to contain urbanization, even for environmental concerns • But, urbanization must be steered into a green path that exploits own unique features • Asia can achieve green urbanization!

  26. Thank Youwww.adb.org

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