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GOVT 312: Parties and Campaigns

GOVT 312: Parties and Campaigns. Lecture 14: Presidential Nomination. Presidential Elections. Presidents must run elections in all 50 states in order to win delegates to the nominating convention Delegates vote for candidates at a national convention. The Rise and Fall and Rise of Primaries.

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GOVT 312: Parties and Campaigns

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  1. GOVT 312: Parties and Campaigns Lecture 14: Presidential Nomination

  2. Presidential Elections • Presidents must run elections in all 50 states in order to win delegates to the nominating convention • Delegates vote for candidates at a national convention

  3. The Rise and Fall and Rise of Primaries • 1904: Florida holds first presidential primary. • 1912: Majority of states use primaries • 1936: 14 states use “ineffective” primaries • 1968: After turmoil at the Democratic convention, party leaders vow to reform the system by holding more primaries. Republicans were often required by state law to follow suit. • 2000: 38 Democratic primaries/ 42 Republican • 2004: 35 Democratic primaries/ 27 Republican

  4. Awarding Delegates to Candidates • Although states vary on their selection rules, Democrats tend to use proportional representation for delegate selection, Republicans tend to use winner-take-all. • Any Democratic candidate that wins 15% of the vote within a state is guaranteed a delegate • Stephen Colbert needed 2.5% of the South Carolina Democratic vote to win a delegate to the Democratic Convention. • Democrats have “super-delegates”: elected officials such as congressmembers, governors, state party chairs, etc. (20% of delegates)

  5. How to Win Delegates • Iowa and New Hampshire figure prominently in strategic calculations, and now along with Nevada and South Carolina. • Must win early races or face exit. If candidate wins more than expected, that counts as a win. • Some candidates dropped out before the first vote: Gov. Tommy Thompson and Sen. Sam Brownback. • Polls, straw polls, money, organization, and candidate temperament all play roles.

  6. Front-Loading • States are constrained by party rules as to when they can hold their primaries or caucuses. Feb. 5 is the first day to hold a nomination contest without penalty in 2008. Dems give exceptions to IA, NH, NV, and SC. (see:http://archive.stateline.org/flash-data/Primary/2008_presidential_primaries.pdf ) • States want to move their nomination contest earlier to have a say in the outcome. • Reps have moved to strip half the delegates from NH, FL, SC, MI, and WY (IA’s Rep caucus is non-binding). • Dems moved to strip all delegates from FL and MI (WY’s Democratic caucus is on March 8).

  7. Conventions • First convention held in 1832 in order to select Martin Van Buren as vice-president • Absolutely unregulated • Functions: • Select president/vice-president • Write party platform • Showcase party • Stage for losers • In modern conventions, the nominee is known prior to the convention

  8. Convention Delegates • Who are they? (H p.189, p. 190) • High SES • Politically active • Ideologically extreme

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