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Economic Update. Kevin Lings, STANLIB June 2014. United States GDP performance. Index, Q1 2006 = 100. US. United States retail sales. %y/y, nominal. United States light vehicle sales. Seasonally adjusted, annualised , million. United States house prices.

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Economic Update

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Economic Update

Kevin Lings, STANLIB

June 2014

United States GDP performance

Index, Q1 2006 = 100


United States retail sales

%y/y, nominal

United States light vehicle sales

Seasonally adjusted, annualised, million

United States house prices

US House prices,%, y/y, nominal, S&P Case Shiller

United States employment total


United States manufacturing employment


United States Federal Budget

$ trillion, 12-month running total



United States Federal Budget

$bn, 12-month running total

US defense activity contribution to annual GDP growth

Contribution to quarterly GDP growth, %, 4 quarter moving average

War in Iraq

War in Afghanistan

United States official interest rates



Euro-area GDP vs US GDP (index)

Index Q1 2006 = 100


Euro-area GDP

Consumer inflation in the Euro-area



China exports

% y/y, 3mnth ave

South Africa consumer confidence (BER)


South Africa vehicle sales


Rate of growth in consumer credit in South Africa


Consumer credit


South Africa growth in mortgage lending


South Africa business confidence (BER)


South Africa manufacturing production as % of GDP

% of total

South Africa growth in exports (Dollars)


South Africa trade balance with key regions

R billion: Jan to April 2014

South Africa travel receipts

R Billions

World Soccer Cup 2010

South Africa percentage of population without a matric by age


South Africa university graduation rates

%, Percent graduation rate

South Africa age of national road network

South Africa public sector infrastructural spending



South Africa government gross loan debt as % of GDP


SA real effective (trade-weighted) exchange rate

Rand is currently 9.5% under-valued on a trade-weighted basis.

Fair value is currently R9.64/$ (6 June 2014)



Fair value = 100


South Africa headline CPI forecast

% y/y

South Africa prime interest rate


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