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Economic Update. Kevin Lings, STANLIB June 2014. United States GDP performance. Index, Q1 2006 = 100. US. United States retail sales. %y/y, nominal. United States light vehicle sales. Seasonally adjusted, annualised , million. United States house prices.

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Economic Update

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Economic Update

Kevin Lings, STANLIB

June 2014


United States GDP performance

Index, Q1 2006 = 100

US


United States retail sales

%y/y, nominal


United States light vehicle sales

Seasonally adjusted, annualised, million


United States house prices

US House prices,%, y/y, nominal, S&P Case Shiller


United States employment total

Million


United States manufacturing employment

Million


United States Federal Budget

$ trillion, 12-month running total

Expenditure

Revenue


United States Federal Budget

$bn, 12-month running total


US defense activity contribution to annual GDP growth

Contribution to quarterly GDP growth, %, 4 quarter moving average

War in Iraq

War in Afghanistan


United States official interest rates

%

US


Euro-area GDP vs US GDP (index)

Index Q1 2006 = 100

USA GDP

Euro-area GDP


Consumer inflation in the Euro-area

%

Euro-area


China exports

% y/y, 3mnth ave


South Africa consumer confidence (BER)

Index


South Africa vehicle sales

%y/y


Rate of growth in consumer credit in South Africa

%y/y

Consumer credit

+4.8%y/y


South Africa growth in mortgage lending

%y/y


South Africa business confidence (BER)

Index


South Africa manufacturing production as % of GDP

% of total


South Africa growth in exports (Dollars)

%y/y


South Africa trade balance with key regions

R billion: Jan to April 2014


South Africa travel receipts

R Billions

World Soccer Cup 2010


South Africa percentage of population without a matric by age

%


South Africa university graduation rates

%, Percent graduation rate


South Africa age of national road network


South Africa public sector infrastructural spending

Rbn

R847.1bn


South Africa government gross loan debt as % of GDP

%


SA real effective (trade-weighted) exchange rate

Rand is currently 9.5% under-valued on a trade-weighted basis.

Fair value is currently R9.64/$ (6 June 2014)

Index

Over-valued

Fair value = 100

Under-valued


South Africa headline CPI forecast

% y/y


South Africa prime interest rate

%


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