Projected distributions of novel and disappering climates by 2100 ad
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Projected distributions of novel and disappering climates by 2100 AD. Williamsm J.W., Jackson S.T., Kutzbach J.E., 2007, PNAS. Introduction. “Climate is primary control of distribution of species and ecosystem processes.” Analysis of A2 and B1 scenario;

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Projected distributions of novel and disappering climates by 2100 AD

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Projected distributions of novel and disappering climates by 2100 ad

Projected distributions of novel and disappering climates by 2100 AD

Williamsm J.W., Jackson S.T., Kutzbach J.E., 2007, PNAS


Introduction

Introduction

“Climate is primary control of distribution of species and ecosystem processes.”

Analysis of A2 and B1 scenario;

GOAL: identification of region that will experience:

  • High magnitude of local climate change

  • Novel climates

  • Disappearance of extant climates

Introduction – Methods – Results - Discussion


Projected distributions of novel and disappering climates by 2100 ad

Niche Theory

Disappearing climate:extant climate disappears.

Novel climate:a climate not yet present on earth

Climatic Shift:locally changed, but still existing on earth.

Introduction – Methods – Results - Discussion


Niche theory

Niche Theory

Species 1-3: several ecological responses

Community sp.1 & sp.3 disappears

Community sp. 1 & sp. 2 forming

Species 4: Extinction

Introduction – Methods – Results - Discussion


Methods and results

Methods and Results

  • Simulation of mean June-Aug and Dec-Feb air temperature and precipitation using IPCC A2 and B1 emission scenarios for the end-20th- and end-21st-century.

  • Interpolate simulations to a 2.8° by 2.8°grid.

  • Calculation of Standard Euclidean Distance (SED) for the degree of dissimilarities between 20th and 21st century climate in each grid point.

Introduction – Methods – Results - Discussion


Methods

Methods

  • Local change: High SED indicates large local climate change and integrated changes in temperature and precipitation

  • Novel climates: Climatic distance (SED) between the end 21st century simulations for each grid point and its closest analog from the global pool of 20st century climates

  • Disappearing climates: Climatic distance (SED) between the 20th century realization for each grid point and its closest 21st century climatic analog from the global pool

21st-century

20th-century

Introduction – Methods – Results - Discussion


Local climate change

Local climate change

  • Large changes everywhere in the A2 scenario

  • Larges changes in tropical and subtropical regions

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Novel future climates

Novel future climates

A2

B1

  • Clustering in tropical and subtropical regions scarcity in higher latitudes

  • Highest dissimilarities over the Amazon and Indonesian Rainforest

     Projected poleward shift of thermal zones is a key determinant.

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Disappearance of extant climates

Disappearance of extant climates

A2

B1

  • Concentration in tropical mountains and poleward side of continents

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Projected distributions of novel and disappering climates by 2100 ad

Consideration of dispersal limitation: pool of potential analogs is restricted to grid points within 500 km of each target grid point

Increased risk for species to experience the loss of extant or the occurrence of novel climate

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Risk of change in relation to global mean annual warming

Risk of change in relation to global mean annual warming.

  • Risk of novel and disappearing climates is linear to the magnitude of mean global warming

     No obvious threshold for “dangerous” climate change

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Biodiversity hotspots

Biodiversity Hotspots

http://www.nature.com/scitable/nated/content/5895/10.1038_403853a0-f1_large_2.jpg

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Biodiversity hotspots1

Biodiversity Hotspots

Areas of disappearing climates closely overly hotspots

Disappearing Climates B1

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Niche theory1

Niche theory

http://ecuador.indymedia.org/images/2007/10/21985.jpg


Discussion

Discussion

A2

B1

Models predict: increased risk of fire and loss of forest cover in amazonia.

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Discussion1

Discussion

  • Tropical species are very sensitive.

    - temperatures vary little

    - small climatic range size


Discussion2

Discussion

Forecasting species-level response is a challenge:

Can they adapt? Can they migrate? What about interspecific differences in response time?

Conservation: dynamic networks of connected reserves?

Introduction – Methods– Results - Discussion


Take home message

Take home message

“Many current species and associations will be disrupted or disappear entirely.”


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