Front Range Ozone Update to the Colorado Directors of Environmental Health

1. Front Range Ozone Update to theColorado Directors of Environmental Health Mike Silverstein April 17, 2008

3. Three Year Average 4th Maximum Ozone Values *** 2007 data through 31 August *** 2005 2006 2007 2008 8-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 3-yr. Avg. Highest 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. Allowable Value Value Value Value 4th Max. Site Name AQS # (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) 08-001-3001 Welby 0.073 0.069 0.070 0.070 0.115 08-005-0002 Highland 0.080 0.081 0.075 0.078 0.098 08-013-0011 S. Boulder Creek 0.076 0.082 0.085 0.081 0.087 08-031-0002 CAMP 0.051 0.062 0.057 0.056 0.135 08-031-0014 Carriage 0.074 0.072 0.076 0.074 0.106 08-035-0004 Chatfield State Park 0.084 0.086 0.082 0.084 0.086 08-041-0013 USAF Academy 0.077 0.072 0.071 0.073 0.111 08-041-0016 Manitou 0.075 0.076 0.072 0.074 0.106 08-059-0002 Arvada 0.078 0.082 0.078 0.079 0.094 08-059-0005 Welch 0.064 0.081 0.080 0.075 0.093 0.085 08-059-0006 Rocky Flats North 0.077 0.090 0.090 0.074 08-059-0011 NREL 0.079 0.083 0.085 0.082 0.086 08-069-0011 Fort Collins - West --- 0.087 0.085 --- (0.085) 08-069-1004 Fort Collins 0.076 0.078 0.069 0.074 0.107 08-123-0009 Weld County Tower 0.078 0.082 0.074 0.073 0.098 08-069-0007 Rocky Mtn. NP 0.075 0.076 0.078 0.076 0.100

4. Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 # of days 2 3 2 0 9 3 2 2 7 22 0 3 9 9 Days Greater than 84 ppb at Denver Metro Sites Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 # of days 6 13 16 23 8 1 10 13 24 10 4 2 4 6 # of days now includes all Front Range sites

6. How Does Colorado Compare to Other Areas?

7. The Early Action Compact for Ozone • Numerous agencies signed on to the Compact in 2002 • Supported the planning efforts to comply with the federal ozone standard by 2007 • Though the plan fell just short of the ultimate goal – 1 part per billion, • Numerous controls were implemented and emissions reduced • More than 180 tons/day of VOCs • More than 60 tons/day of NOx • Public health was likely improved • The Compact terminated with EPA’s formal designation of nonattainment on 11/20/2007 - Marginal • A new plan is now required

8. Governor Ritter’s Directive • Propose measures to reduce ozone further in the 2008 summer ozone season • Submit a proposed plan to the AQCC by September 2008 to assure compliance with the federal standard • Set a goal of reducing or eliminating ozone levels above 80 ppb • Consider the addition of elements that would further reduce ozone levels in anticipation of a lower federal standard

9. Planning Goals • Meet 1997 Ozone Standard (effectively 0.084 ppm) by 2010 • per Federal requirements • Reduce or eliminate ozone values above 0.080 ppm • per Governor Ritter’s directive • Begin laying the groundwork to prepare a plan to meet the new Ozone Standard (0.075 ppm) • per Governor Ritter’s directive

10. VOC Emissions – 2010(4% reduction since 2006)

11. NOx Emissions – 2010(8% reduction since 2006)

12. Some Nonattainment Implications • Region’s image • Transportation conformity • Coordination between the transportation planning agencies – NFRMPO, UFR, DRCOG, CDOT – 30 years • General conformity • Projects involving federal approvals have to undergo more extensive review and justification • Long-term planning: 20 - 30 years • NFR, APCD, RAQC, Counties, Cities, Towns

13. Some Nonattainment Implications • Siting of new industrial sources • New and modified major sources subject to more stringent New Source Review permitting requirements • Lowest achievable emission rate • Emission offsets • Smaller sources: • APEN reporting thresholds reduced • 1 tpy for VOC and NOx sources • Permitting/RACT requirements more stringent • 2 tpy VOC sources • 5 tpy NOx sources

14. Process and Timeline for Developing an Attainment Plan • Agency discussions and stakeholder meetings began Fall 2007 • Technical work is underway • Control measure options are under development • Measures will likely be proposed to go beyond 84 ppb • Modeling and control strategy development will occur throughout 2008 • A plan will be drafted and proposed to the AQCC by September 2008

15. Stakeholder Process for Developing and Attainment Plan • All stakeholders invited to participate in a collaborative and open process • Government, environmental, nonprofit and other interest groups, business and industry, and citizens • Stakeholder Workgroups: • Oil and Gas (VOCs) • Stationary Sources (VOCs) • Modeling and Technical Analyses • NOx • Mobile Sources/Fuels • Transportation • Outcome-based process • Stakeholders work together to set goals and ensure they are met

16. Elements to be Addressed in the New Plan • Complex technical analyses • Control measures to meet the Governor’s directives – a “suite” of control options are under development • Stationary/oil & gas controls • Area/mobile/fuels controls • Contingency measures • Setting of emission budgets for transportation conformity • Demonstration of attainment by 2010

17. Next Steps • April 2006/2010 base case modeling • June 2010 sensitivity modeling • April Initial strategy analyses complete • May-August RAQC considers modeling and strategy analyses • June Meet with NFRMPO • June-August RAQC/APCD draft regulations • September RAQC/NFR/APCD proposes draft plan/regulations to AQCC • Oct.-Dec. AQCC prehearing process • December AQCC hearing and SIP/regulation adoption • January-May Legislative review • July 1, 2009 Deadline to submit plan to EPA

18. EPA Review of the Ozone Standard • EPA is promulgating a new, more stringent 8-hour ozone standard • 0.075 ppm or 75 ppb • March 2009: States submit recommendations (2006-2008 data) • March 2010: EPA makes designations (2006-2008 & 2007-2009 data) • March 2013: SIPs due to EPA • 2015-2030: Attainment required (dependent on severity of the problem) Note: Potential litigation could delay this timeline

19. Days Above .075 ppm(Denver/North Front Range Area)

20. New standard: 3-yr avg. of 4th max 8-hour < 0.075 ppm Counties violating: Larimer, Weld, Boulder, Jefferson, Arapahoe, Douglas