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Global Warming Prediction

Global Warming Prediction. Global Warming Prediction. It is very important to account for fossil-fuels depletion when calculating Global Warming predictions. Otherwise, it might be assumed that more carbon can be put into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels than physically possible.

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Global Warming Prediction

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  1. Global WarmingPrediction www.assignmentpoint.com

  2. Global Warming Prediction • It is very important to account for fossil-fuels depletion when calculating Global Warming predictions. • Otherwise, it might be assumed that more carbon can be put into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels than physically possible. • Calculating fossil-fuels depletion is not exact, but can be estimated reasonably well. www.assignmentpoint.com

  3. Fossil Fuels Global Warming • Fit depletion curves to extraction data for coal, crude oil and natural gas using discoveries data and reserves estimates. • Calculate the carbon emitted due to burning fossil fuels and the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, accounting for residence time. • Calculate the Earth temperature due to the CO2 in the atmosphere, including time lag. • Consider triggering of other effects that raise temperature, including temperature feedbacks that increase CO2 concentration. www.assignmentpoint.com

  4. Verhulst Function for resources depletion. Q = amount already extracted + amount left to be extracted = total amount to be extracted n ≠ 1 allows asymmetry. Verhulst Function: An asymmetric peaked curve. www.assignmentpoint.com

  5. Oil discoveries will not allow higher average extraction. Peak Oil Skewed toward later times. www.assignmentpoint.com

  6. You can’t extract it if you have not discovered it! Areas under both curves are the same. That is, the amount discovered equals the amount extracted. discoveries extraction www.assignmentpoint.com The areas under the two curves are the same: ~2x1012 barrels.

  7. Gas discoveries will not allow higher average extraction. Peak Gas Skewed toward later times. www.assignmentpoint.com

  8. You can’t extract it if you have not discovered it! Areas under both curves are the same. That is, the amount discovered equals the amount extracted. discoveries www.assignmentpoint.com The areas under the two curves are the same: ~8x1015 cu. ft.

  9. Peaks between 2060 & 2100 Double known coal. Unlikely! Known existent coal (EIA) www.assignmentpoint.com

  10. Factors and Assumptions • Coal = 50% carbon, short ton = 0.907 tonnes • Crude oil = 84% carbon, bbl = 0.136 tonnes • Natural gas = 76% carbon, tcf = 0.0189 tonnes • CO2 concentration in ppmv = 0.47 x gigatonnes carbon emitted (may increase with high concentration; i.e., may be nonlinear; see later) • Climate sensitivity = 3°C for doubling CO2 • 25% of fossil fuels are used to make useful materials or are lost instead of being burned. • Background year 1700 CO2 concentration = 280 ppmv www.assignmentpoint.com

  11. 20% left after 250 years 10% left after 2000 years 6% left after 10,000 years www.assignmentpoint.com

  12. Equation for CO2 left in nth year for emissions in all previous years. www.assignmentpoint.com

  13. Coal CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration contribution. Shift in ppmv is due to CO2 residence time. www.assignmentpoint.com

  14. Crude-oil CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration contribution. Shift in ppmv is due to CO2 residence time. www.assignmentpoint.com

  15. Natural-Gas CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration contribution. Shift in ppmv is due to CO2 residence time. www.assignmentpoint.com

  16. Fossil-Fuels CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration contribution. www.assignmentpoint.com

  17. CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning Peaks at about 2110. www.assignmentpoint.com

  18. CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning + background Below measured data, as it should be. www.assignmentpoint.com

  19. Non-Fossil-Fuels CO2 Emissions • Deforestation • Soil depletion • Cement production • Domestic animals Assume that non-fossil-fuels CO2 concentration is proportional to concentration due to burning fossil fuels. www.assignmentpoint.com

  20. Fit of CO2 Concentration Data to Fossil-Fuels Emissions NFF=14% of FF Pre-fossil-fuels industrialization www.assignmentpoint.com

  21. CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning + Non-fossil-fuels sources;latter assumed proportional to fossil-fuels concentration. www.assignmentpoint.com

  22. CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning + Non-fossil-fuels + background 465 ppmv It peaks at about 2100 instead of rising into the next century as many assume. Carbon-dioxide concentration due to burning fossil fuels with non-fossil fuels emissions, assuming that no Earth states are triggered. www.assignmentpoint.com

  23. Climate Sensitivity (s) Earth average atmospheric temperature rise due to doubling the carbon-dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Accounts for fast feedbacks, such as ice melting. The average is about 3 degrees Celsius. It must be applied each year using the carbon-dioxide concentration for that year. C0=concentration for reference year (1700). www.assignmentpoint.com

  24. Climate-Response Function There is a time lag for the atmospheric temperature after carbon emissions. Due to energy absorbed and released later in mostly the oceans, but also in ice. Fit of two hyperbolic tangents to the data. Data errors are large. www.assignmentpoint.com

  25. Climate-Response Function The climate-sensitivity function is multiplied by a series of two hyperbolic tangents: Temperature lag is due to energy absorbed and released later in mostly the oceans, but also in ice. www.assignmentpoint.com

  26. 1.3 degrees C Although the temperature is not extremely high, it hangs around for a long time. Close to the current measured value. Does not account for fluctuations due to global dimming. www.assignmentpoint.com

  27. Why such a high projection?! Disaster region! Peak in this calculation. Ice age to current interglacial is about 8 degrees C in Antarctica and about half that in the temperate regions. 8°C www.assignmentpoint.com Temperature & CO2 are mutually reinforcing (positive feedback).

  28. Assume carbon sequestration or a coal-burning moratorium. Probably optimistic! www.assignmentpoint.com

  29. Assume carbon sequestration or a coal-burning moratorium. Coal www.assignmentpoint.com

  30. CO2 is somewhat reduced by carbon sequestration or a coal-burning moratorium. 430 ppmv; reduced from 465 www.assignmentpoint.com

  31. Temperature is somewhat reduced by carbon sequestration or a coal-burning moratorium. 1.1 degrees C; reduced from 1.3 Will we have waited too late?! www.assignmentpoint.com

  32. Double the coal extracted. Coal www.assignmentpoint.com

  33. CO2 concentration due to doubled coal extraction 490 ppmv www.assignmentpoint.com

  34. Temperature is increased due to doubled coal extraction. 1.65 degrees C Instead of 1.3 www.assignmentpoint.com

  35. Temperatures for some of the cases considered DoubleCoal Coal Moratorium or Carbon Sequestration Assumes that there is no triggering of Earth states. www.assignmentpoint.com

  36. !Some Nightmares! • Suppose concentration/emissions factor changes with increasing concentration from 0.47 to 0.94 (land and ocean become saturated with CO2). • Suppose permafrosted tundra release of carbon during the next century (example of temperature feedback). • Suppose climate sensitivity changes from 3 to 4 over the next two centuries. (It is known that it changes to 6 over millennia because of slow feedbacks.) www.assignmentpoint.com

  37. Suppose concentration/emissions factor changes with concentration from 0.47 to 0.94 (doubled). 820 ppmv Assumes hyperbolic-tangent change with 450 ppmv break point and 50 ppmv width. Disaster Region! Due to land and oceans being saturated with carbon dioxide. www.assignmentpoint.com

  38. Suppose emissions/concentration Factor changes with concentration from 0.47 to 0.94 (doubled). 2.7 degrees C Dangerously high temperatures www.assignmentpoint.com

  39. Assume permafrosted tundra release of carbon. Total 400 gigatonnes Example of temperature feedback; there are other temperature feedbacks. www.assignmentpoint.com

  40. CO2 concentration due to permafrosted tundra release of carbon www.assignmentpoint.com

  41. Total CO2 concentration including permafrosted tundra release of carbon 555 ppmv Disaster Region! www.assignmentpoint.com

  42. Temperature including permafrosted tundra release of carbon. 1.8 degrees C Disaster Region! www.assignmentpoint.com

  43. Worst case CO2 concentration 1110 ppmv !Calamitous! Most likely fossil-fuels depletion, CO2 feedback & carbon release in Arctic www.assignmentpoint.com

  44. Worst case temperature Will cause terrible catastrophes for human life. (See Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas.) 4.5 degrees C for climate sensitivity change to 4 3.5 degrees C for climate sensitivity = 3 Approximately the same temperature change between the last glacial maximum and now! www.assignmentpoint.com

  45. Temperatures for some of the cases considered DoubleCoal Coal Moratorium or Carbon Sequestration !Could a coal moratorium keep those disastrous Earth states from triggering?! www.assignmentpoint.com

  46. Fossil Fuels Burning Reduction Reduces temperature below now, which might keep from triggering carbon releases and other temperature-raising feedbacks. www.assignmentpoint.com

  47. Conclusions • Peaking fossil fuels keeps CO2 concentration from going extremely high, unless it triggers other effects. • Since temperature rise of about 0.8°C from 18th century is already causing disastrous events, the continuing increase of another 1°C or more will cause even more disasters and may other Earth changes that will cause a higher temperature. • The peaking of fossil fuels may be as large immediate disaster as is global warming. www.assignmentpoint.com

  48. World Population Projections Population with renewable energy Fit of population to available fossil-fuels energy 1950-2006. Population without renewable energy www.assignmentpoint.com

  49. Next Major Ice Age with Global Warming Effect Accounting for claim that Earth average temperature changes are about half Antarctica average temperature changes. www.assignmentpoint.com

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