Globalization and the Race to the Bottom. Economic Competition (a.k.a. Globalization) Aging populations Increasing frustration/distrust of public authority Fiscal Crises. In Fact we see Variation - Not Convergence. Is Globalization like Global Warming?. Variation: Not Convergence.
Is Globalizationlike Global Warming?
Variation: Not Convergence
The Scientific Method - Derived from the Hard Sciences
[Social scientists] envision a world composed of linear relationships among variables, parity in the size of cause and effect, recurrent patterns over time, and the fundamental insignificance of chance happenings.
Alan Zuckerman (1997)
If politics were mechanics:
Assume variable independence
Omit or control for:
Accurately predict change.
My argument:Political Systems areComplex Adaptive Systems:They Evolve and Adapt in a dynamic environment (which they, in part, create themselves)
This model explicitly brings in:
Historical context (the dynamic ecology)
Symbiosis and Co-Evolution
Agency (source of Variation)
(New Deal, Great Society, War on Poverty)
Increasing Support for the Universal Welfare State Sweden
Political Evolution and Institutional Choice
Institutions, like genes, are rules that structure behavior by telling actors how to behave in particular contexts.
History “evolves” precisely because humans have the capacity to create, select and copy institutions.
When building institutions, we build part of the ecological contexts in which future generations make new choices.
Human’s thus make their own ‘evolutionary history’ but they cannot make it exactly according to their wishes.