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第 4 章 推測統計の基礎 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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第 4 章 推測統計の基礎. 統計学基礎  2012 年度. 目次. Ⅰ  全数調査と標本調査 1)  標本調査のメリット 2)  標本抽出法 3)  標本調査における誤差 Ⅱ  確率の基礎 1)  確率の計算 2)  確率分布 3)  確率の定義 ⅰ ) 先験的確率 ⅱ ) 経験的確率 ⅲ ) 主観的確率 Ⅲ  統計的推論入門. Ⅰ  全数調査と標本調査. 「社会生活統計指標  - 都道府県の指標 -2011 」のページには、数多くの都道府県別データがある。

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第 4 章 推測統計の基礎

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4

2012


1)

2)

3)

1)

2)

3)


  • --2011

  • (A1101)()(L3211)


1)

N

n


    • 15(11)10

    • (20)(1)1000()



2)

(sampling)

  • ()()

    • 1


3)

2


    • 1936

      • F

      • A

      • ()

        • 5

        • 20057%

      • ()

        • 300054%

          60%


        • 1000200

    N

    N

    n

    n


    551021

    10250%100%0%

    2

    11

    2


    1

    1105153%

    2110065%

    3100156%

    201194

    495467%

    5101462%


    1)

    551021

    21A

    A(Probability)

    1A

    102


    • 102

      • 10110

      • 919

      • 10()9()=90901

      • 902=45()

    • 102

    102


    x

    x

    x

    x


    x


    • 21

      • 5

      • 5

      • 5()5()=25

    2()45-102=25()


    551022

    52

    2

    102


  • AB(A)B

    • A1

    • B2

  • 2

    22

    12

    1

    ABAB

    12

    1

    12


    • 22

      • A1

      • B2

  • 2

  • 12

  • AB

  • 12

    2

    1


    2)


      • 22

      • t2

    • (bell curve)


    • 80105020

    • 709068.3%307068.3%109095.4%


    3)

    )


    )


    )

    • ()

      • AP(A)A


    WBC(World Baseball Classic)160%

    ()

    • ()

    • ()

    • ()



    55102102

    n

    N

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    11

    2

    2

    1

    1


    • xx

      xn


    1

    10000.60.570.6395%

    1000

    p=0.6


    p

    95%

    0.57

    p=0.6

    0.63

    0.61



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