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The Outlook for Electricity Supply and Demand to 2035: Key Drivers

The Outlook for Electricity Supply and Demand to 2035: Key Drivers . Center for Public Utilities Current Issues Conference Session on Balancing Reliability, Affordability, and Environmental Protection College of Business New Mexico State University March 12, 2012 | Santa Fe, New Mexico

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The Outlook for Electricity Supply and Demand to 2035: Key Drivers

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  1. The Outlook for Electricity Supply and Demand to 2035: Key Drivers Center for Public Utilities Current Issues Conference Session on Balancing Reliability, Affordability, and Environmental Protection College of Business New Mexico State University March 12, 2012 | Santa Fe, New Mexico Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator

  2. While electricity consumption grows by 23% over the AEO2012 Reference case projection, the annual rate of growth slows percent growth (3-year rolling average) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.8 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 2000-2010 1.0 2010-2035 0.8 History 2010 Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency Projections Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  3. Electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options in the Reference case , led by growth in renewables and natural gas electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 2010 27% Natural gas 24% 16% Renewables 10% 39% Coal 45% 20% 18% Oil and other liquids Nuclear 1% 1% Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  4. Domestic natural gas production is projected to grow faster than consumption U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release History Projections 2010 Consumption Domestic supply Net imports Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  5. Technically recoverable natural gas resources for AEO 2012 reflect updated assessments U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet *Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Unproved shale gas Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) Proved reserves (all types and locations) 2,214 482 1,460 273 AEO Edition Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  6. Growing shale gas supplies are projected to more than offset declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release History Projections 2010 49% Shale gas 23% 26% Tight gas 21% 9% Non-associated offshore 9% 7% Coalbed methane 10% 7% Associated with oil 7% 21% Non-associated onshore 1% 2% 9% Alaska Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  7. Global spot natural gas and crude oil prices with average monthly LNG prices in Japan 482 1,460 273 Source: EIA based on Bloomberg as of 3/5/2012 Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  8. EIA’s natural gas price projections are slightly lower than in AEO2011, consistent with recent market developments natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2010 dollars per million Btu Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release and EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2010 AEO2011 AEO2012 Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  9. The average delivered price of coal to electricity generators varies widely across U.S. regions – transport costs are a key reason 2010 Delivered coal prices, $ per million Btu $3.41 $2.02 $2.96 $2.01 N/A $1.51 $1.49 N/A $2.48 $2.91 $1.75 $1.57 $1.46 1.77 $2.45 $3.65 $1.83 $1.93 $1.83 $3.40 $1.91 $4.46 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  10. The “crossover point” for least-cost dispatch of coal and natural gas capacity depends on both fuel prices and the carbon value. At lower natural gas prices, the “crossover” occurs at a lower carbon value. Environmental operating costs and retrofit costs for pollution controls at existing coal-fired plants can “raise the bar” for their continued operation. For retrofit decisions, the unit’s perceived “useful life,” which plays a critical role, can be affected by views regarding future climate policies Operating costs: existing plants with and without a value on carbon Fuel Cost for Existing Coal and Combined Cycle Natural Gas Units with a Value Placed on Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2010 dollars per megawatthour Coal at $3 Coal at $2 Natural Gas CC at $7 Natural Gas CC at $4 Natural Gas CC at $3 Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer For more information EIA Information Center InfoCtr@eia.gov Our average response time is within three business days. (202) 586-8800 24-hour automated information line about EIA and frequently asked questions. Howard Gruenspecht Santa Fe, March 12, 2012

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