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Schedule. April 20: Future Climatic Change, Conclusions and Perspectives April 23: Wrap-up April 27: Final 1-3:50 pm. The Climate Future. Trends. The world has about 6.77 billion people right now…. Estimates of the number of people who ever lived range 45-125 billion

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Presentation Transcript
Schedule
Schedule

  • April 20: Future Climatic Change, Conclusions and Perspectives

  • April 23: Wrap-up

  • April 27: Final 1-3:50 pm



Trends
Trends

  • The world has about 6.77 billion people right now….

    • Estimates of the number of people who ever lived range 45-125 billion

  • When I was born there were less than 3 billion people…..



Will we run out oil
Will we run out….oil?

  • The world consumes about 32 billion barrels of oil year.

  • World proven oil reserves are about 1300 bbl

  • BUT!

    • Reserves depend on PRICE and technology!

    • With a higher price worldreserves are much larger….


Take the kern field for example
Take the Kern Field for example

  • It started production with the expectation of recovering 70 million barrels (mbbl).

  • By 1942 they had recovered 280 mbbl with another 60 to go.

  • By 2007 they had recovered 2000 mbbl with another 480 to go…..!

  • How much oil is there REALLY?


Will we run out oil1
Will we run out….oil?

  • NE Greenland ~ 110 billion barrels

  • Offshore Cuba ~ 20 billion barrels

  • Russian Arctic ~ 90 billion barrels

  • Canadian Arctic… bad tectonics

  • Canadian Tar Sands ~ 1700 billion barrels

  • Orinoco Oil Sands ~ 1800 billion barrels


Will we run out coal
Will we run out…coal?

  • Annual use is about 7 billion tons

  • There are over 900 billon tons of proven reserves


Greenhouse trends
Greenhouse Trends

  • Methane accounts for about 16% of the total greenhouse-gas effect.

    • But……Methane growth has peaked

    • However, there is a problem with permafrost and methane clathrates in the oceans.

  • In the future CO2 will dominate greenhouse gasses


Greenhouse trends1
Greenhouse Trends

  • With increases in CO2 we get substantial warming.

  • Warming of the oceans

    • Reduce the solubility of CO2 in the oceans

    • Allow methane clathrates to melt releasing more methane

  • Warming of the polar regions

    • Methane and CO2 released from permafrost regions.


2 x co2 world
2 x CO2 world

  • The good news is that the pulse of CO2 is too fast for the climate system to come to equilibrium

    • Slow responding parts like the major ice sheets would not be able to melt fast enough

    • Fast responding parts (permafrost, shallow ocean, seasons) will change a lot.


2 x co2 world1
2 x CO2 world

  • 560 PPM CO2….About 2C warmer than now. Like the world 10 million years ago

    • Reduced arctic sea ice

    • Few mountain glaciers

    • Forests moving north

    • More water vapor and clouds

    • Stronger monsoons??? Greener North Africa?

    • More acid ocean

    • Somewhere between 30-200 cm sea level rise this century…..maybe more.


4 x co2 world
4 x CO2 world

  • 1100 PPM CO2….About 5-7C warmer than now. Like the world 50 million years ago

    • No arctic sea ice

    • No mountain glaciers

    • Unstable Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets

    • Forests on the shores of the Arctic Ocean

    • More water vapor and clouds

    • Stronger monsoons??? Greener North Africa?

    • More acid ocean

    • Somewhere between 1-2 meter sea level rise this century…..maybe more.



The bottom line
The Bottom Line

Do you like Sea Level where it is?







Can we have a different future
Can we have a different Future?

  • Can we limit the input of fossil carbon?

  • What will be the methane effect of thawing permafrost?

  • What will be the methane effect of thawing clathrates?


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