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Road safety in Australia –the data and the challenge

Road safety in Australia –the data and the challenge. Kym Bills Executive Director Australian Transport Safety Bureau. National Road Safety Strategy 2001-2010. Joint strategy involving all levels of government & other stakeholders endorsed by ATC in late 2000

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Road safety in Australia –the data and the challenge

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  1. Road safety in Australia–the data and the challenge Kym Bills Executive Director Australian Transport Safety Bureau

  2. National Road Safety Strategy 2001-2010 • Joint strategy involving all levels of government & other stakeholders endorsed by ATC in late 2000 • Series of two-year action plans, providing a focus on priority issues • Target a 40% reduction in the number of road deaths per 100,000 population by end 2010 (5.6 max)

  3. Basis of target • Based on estimated effects of known measures following a 1998 summit & Corben/Vulcan paper • Focus on measures likely to be ‘in the pipeline’ (eg road investment, some vehicle technology) plus those feasible to implement & cost-effective • Estimates adjusted to allow for expected increase in vehicle use, and discounted to avoid double-counting of savings • 40% challenging, but not cf 50% or ‘vision zero’

  4. 2010 target: indicative estimates of the effects of known measures

  5. Measuring progress • Steady progress toward the target would require a 5% reduction in the fatality rate each year • On that basis, the cumulative reduction by the end of May 2007 should have been 27.9%

  6. Measuring progress

  7. Changes in vehicle usage • Total vehicle usage (kilometres per person) has been growing at about 0.9 of a percentage point per year • slightly faster than expected when the target was set • but not enough to explain the gap between safety outcomes and the pro-rata target • unlikely that the changed safety trend since 2004 is a result of a surge in total vehicle use • in fact, fuel price rises have probably moderated aggregate exposure growth.

  8. Changes in vehicle usage • Truck VKT growth in line with forecast and deaths have decreased (but not in line with pro rata 40% target) • Unforseen increase in motorcycle usage and motorcycle deaths • motorcycle deaths have increased by 36% since 1999(22% since 2004) • the trend in motorcycle deaths accounts for about two fifths of the current gap between the total fatality rate & pro-rata target

  9. Was the target unrealistic? • Two states have achieved cumulative reductions that are very close to the national pro-rata target for May 2007: • National pro-rata target: 27.9% • NSW reduction: 27.2% • SA reduction: 27.3% • In Victoria, which started with the lowest rate among the states, the rate has dropped by 24% since December 2000

  10. Was the target unrealistic? • In the 12 months to May 2007, NSW and Victoria both had road death rates slightly below the national pro-rata target • National pro-rata target: 6.7 deaths per 100,000 • NSW and Victoria: 6.6 deaths per 100,000 • Victoria recorded a 31% reduction in the fatality rate in the two years to April 2004, mainly by using a robust approach to speed management

  11. Victoria’s campaign on speeding: results Rolling 12 month average

  12. Why are we above the national target? • National Road Safety Action Plan for 2007 & 2008 many cost-effective measures: • have not been implemented or • have not been implemented in all jurisdictions or • have not been implemented on a sufficient scale • The target was an estimate of what could be achieved not a forecast of what would be

  13. Is the national target still within range?

  14. Is the national target still in range? • Average annual percentage reduction to meet targetover 10 years: 5.0% • Average annual percentage reduction to May 2007: 2.8% • Average annual percentage reduction required from now to 2010: 8.8% • Total percentage reduction required from now to 2010: 28% “If I wanted to get to there, I wouldn’t start from here.”

  15. The challenge • On average, 31 people die on Australia’s roads every week • More than 10 times as many people are seriously injured • These numbers could be much lower • Many available options for improving safety would result in a net economic benefit • We would probably have a more efficient and reliable road transport system with reduced greenhouse emissions and noxious emissions • We have the outcomes that we have because, as a society, we have made certain choices.

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