Alyssa Rosemartin University of Arizona

1. Phenology, Climate Change and the USA-NPN Alyssa Rosemartin University of Arizona www.usanpn.org

2. How might species respond to climate change? • No change • Extinction • Move with climate • Stay, but adapt • Morphology • Phenology

3. English Oak Winter Moth Pied Flycatcher A three-way mismatch EARLIER EARLIER SAME TIME EACH YEAR Both et al. 2006 Nature

4. Phenology Study of timing of plant & animal life cycle events

5. How else might phenology impact species, ecosystems and humans?

6. Shifting Phenology in the Catalinas • Timing of spring flowering • Low elevation species most influenced by precipitation & temperatures of the previous fall • High elevation species are more affected by spring temperatures, more like temperate systems • Timing of summer flowering • Highly variable • Tied to monsoon onset across elevations Crimmins et al. 2010

7. Shifting Phenology in the Catalinas • 26% of species show some sort of change in flowering range: • 13% species exhibited “range shift upslope” • 37% species exhibited “range expansion upslope” • 25% species exhibited “range contraction upslope” Crimmins et al. 2009

8. Shifting Phenology 1977: 3,000 Brant overwintered in Alaska Today: 40,000 overwinter Ward et al. 2009

9. Shifting Phenology Year Weishampel et al. 2004 GCB

10. Relationship to Populations & Distributions Increasing Decreasing + 0 Populations & Distributions Willis et al. 2008 PNAS Moller et al. 2008 PNAS Willis et al. 2010 PLOS Biology Hulme 2010 New Phyt. Change in phenology

11. Fotolia Shifting Phenology Red admiral: 1 day earlier/year Steve Scott Field skipper: 1 day earlier/year Forister and Shapiro 2003 GCB

12. Applications and decision-support tools • Science • Predictive services • Health • Resource mgmt • Conservation • Agriculture • Ecosystem services • Recreation

13. Timing of Management Practices

14. Juniper Pollen Project Juniper Phenology Observations Satellite Imagery Predictive Modeling Allergen Alerts

15. “Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (IPCC 2007)

16. What is USA-NPN?

17. What is USA-NPN? The USA National Phenology Network brings together… citizen scientists, government agencies, non-profit groups, educators and students of all ages to monitor the impacts of climate on plants and animals in the United States.

18. What is USA-NPN? • Key Goal • Understand how plants, animals and landscapes respond to environmental variation and climate change.

19. Ross Franklin, AP Steve Ringman, The Seattle Times What is USA-NPN? • Our Vision • Encourage people • of all ages and backgrounds to observe and record phenology. • Make phenology data, models, and related information available to scientists, resource managers, and the public.

20. What is USA-NPN? Data are available for download Dynamic Visualization Tool :

21. What is USA-NPN? Key sponsors and collaborators… The Great Sunflower Project

22. a project of the USA-NPN What is Nature’s Notebook?

23. What is Nature’s Notebook? • Nature’s Notebook is USA-NPN’s plant and animal phenology observation program.

24. What is Nature’s Notebook? • Nature’s Notebook engages scientists and citizen scientists to collect phenology observations on: • 258+ plant species • 160+ animal species