Markus Blesl, IER, Germany RS “Modelling Pan European Policy scenarios”

1. The NEEDS TIMES PanEU modelling platform and main results of scenario analysis New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability Final Conference "External costs of energy technologies" Markus Blesl, IER, Germany RS “Modelling Pan European Policy scenarios” Brussels, February 17, 2009

2. Scenario analysis Baseline case (REF) • Continuation of the support of renewable on a minimum level, nuclear phase out and limited use of nuclear in the countries they have used nuclear in the past. Post-Kyoto climate policy (450 ppm) • An overall EU reduction target of -71% emissions by 2050 compared to 1990, is imposed • A scenario variant (450ppm_oil100) is analysed with oil prices going above USA$ 100/bb • Security of energy supply (OLGA and OLGA_NUC) • Imports of fossil fuels are constrained to foster the use of renewables, efficiency standards and new nuclear (-30 % Oil, -40% Gas below baseline imports in 2010) • A scenario variance is analyzed (OLGA_NUC) where nuclear reactors are free options to mitigate climate change

3. Carbon Emissions in Mt CO2/yr

4. Attributes of CO2 emissions reductions in the EU27 in Mt CO2/yr Scenario – 450 ppm in the year 2020 CHP (30.2 %) CCS 0% Renewables CCS 11% CON Efficiency increase Fossil Switch 1% Enduse 17% 1% Fossil Switch 14% Efficiency End use 1% 33% CCS Renewable 10% 18% Renewable 5% Electricity and Heat Nuclear 1% 0% Fossil Switch Efficiency 21% 0% Power plant (36.8 %)

5. Cost Optimal Burden Sharing of the 20% GHG EC Target for 2020

6. Emission Reduction ETS vs. NonETS in 450ppm Scenario in 2020

7. Attribution of CO2 emission reduction in the EU27 (450 ppm wi/wo security of supply) with oil and gas restriciton without oil and gas restriction

8. Attributes of CO2 emissions reductions in the EU27 in Mt CO2/yr Scenario – 450 ppm in the year 2050 CHP (15.2%) CCS CON CCS 4% 7% Renewables Fossil Switch Efficiency increase 0% 6% Enduse Efficiency 8% 2% Fossil Switch 19% End use CCS 52% 13% Renewable 17% Electricity and Heat 7% Renewable Power plants (33.2%) 9% Nuclear 6% Efficiency Fossil Switch 0% 2%

9. Attribution of CO2 emission reduction in the EU27 (450 ppm wi/wo security of supply) with oil and gas restriction and without nuclear phase out with oil and gas restriction and with nuclear phase out

10. Scenario Comparison, EU27: Net Electricity Production

11. Scenario Comparison 450 PMM wi/wo security of supply EU27: By Electrical Capacity and Technology in GW without oil and gas restriction with oil and gas restriciton

12. Scenario Comparison 450 PMM with security of supply EU27: By Electrical Capacity and Technology in GW with oil and gas restriction and without nuclear phase out with oil and gas restriction and with nuclear phase out

13. CO2 Prices and CO2 Costs

14. Conclusions • The role of technologies and structural changes in the energy system of the EU27 are more influenced by policies than of the technologies them self. • A strong reduction of the import-dependence on oil and gas is only possible if the technology development will be successful in all parts of the energy system. • In case of CO2 emission reduction with a limitation on the further use of nuclear, renewable, CCS , fossil fuel switch and a increase of electricity in the final energy consumption plays a big rule. • Efficiency improvement will be compensated by a higher share of renewable and the use of CSS till 2030. Only in case of security of supply efficiency improvement takes up an additional part. • In the long term energy demand and end use technologies determinate more and more the possibility of structural changes and CO2 prices.