1 / 14

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report provides highlights, recent evolution, and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System. It includes rainfall patterns, temperature and wind anomalies, and bias-corrected precipitation forecasts.

sphillips
Download Presentation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 September 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed to the north of the equator and over western and southern Brazil. • During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions to the north of 30S. Above-average precipitation was found over eastern Argentina and central Colombia.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed to the north of the equator and over western and southern Brazil.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions to the north of 30S. Above-average precipitation was found over eastern Argentina and central Colombia.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are below average over the southern Amazon basin and the Brazilian Plateau.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Above-average SSTs are observed in much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean especially the central Pacific. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 27 August – 2 September 2012, in the upper troposphere, a weak anomalous cyclonic pattern (red C) was observed over Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) was observed over most of the South America. C Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 27 August – 2 September 2012, temperatures were above average over central-northern Brazil and below average over southeastern Bolivia. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 4 September 2012 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Unavailable Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 4 September 2012 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Unavailable Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  13. Precipitation Climatology

  14. Precipitation Climatology Animation

More Related