Could India “overtake” China?. Is India catching up to China?.
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Could India “overtake” China?
In 2005 India’s GDP growth rate was almost 8% and rising, versus 9.5% and falling in China.
“India and the Knowledge Economy”
World Bank Institute Development Studies,
June 26, 2005, 178 pages.
Since the 1991 crisis, when energy imports exhausted reserves, India’s GDP growth is up (averaging 5 – 7%), volatility is down, inflation is down and all three trends have been resilient. The debt burden has been stable and FX reserves have increased to safe levels.
India’s “demographic peak” (when its ratio of income-earners to dependents peaks) is, unlike China’s, yet to come.
India has the world’s largest population under democracy and the world’s fastest growing free market. Good or bad for growth? More later.
India has mastered 21st century Information Technology, leap-frogging the need for transportation infrastructure. Its youthful population embraces this technology. Vocational training is at last taking off, after decades of strictly academic education.
Outsourcing – to Hyderabad and Bangalore – is now legendary, documented anecdotally in Thomas Friedman’s “The Earth is Flat”. Young Indians can sell services to rich countries without leaving India, and H. and B. are now attracting engineers and investment bankers from all over the world.
Instead, India espouses “21st Century Farming”: eg, rural village kiosks (“e-chaupals”) where world prices are quoted and small sellers can trade.
Food, Fashion, and Film.