Future challenges exoplanets
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Future Challenges: Exoplanets. Don QUB Oxford 20120316. Suzanne: purpose of this talk is “refutable comments” In actual fact I think only a crazy person would attempt to predict the ESP future…. What is the aim of exoplanet research?.

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Future challenges exoplanets

Future Challenges: Exoplanets

Don

QUB

Oxford 20120316


Future challenges exoplanets

Suzanne: purpose of this talk is “refutable comments”

In actual fact I think only a crazy person would attempt to predict the ESP future…


What is the aim of exoplanet research

What is the aim of exoplanet research?

  • Our aims may be quite different from that of our funding bodies.

  • Do we see the “big picture”?

  • While doing the STFC roadmap I originally thought about aims that were, I though, important and in my career horizon eg terrestrial planets and their atmospheres. This was loosely rewritten above me to something like the “Star Trek Boldly go” phase

    “Seek out new life and civilizations…”


Future challenges exoplanets

So is the life question what its all about?

Maybe its not so far away from where we are moving towards – habitability and HZ planets


Reflection

Reflection

Before you move forward its time to reflect – that way you can take stock of where you actually are


Landmark events

Landmark events

1992 – the pulsar planets (Wolszczan & Frail0)

1995 – first hot jupiter, 51 Peg (Mayor & Queloz)

start of RV surveys (continuing)

1999 – first transit detection (Charbonneau et al, Tony et al)

start of transit surveys (continuing)

(worth pointing out that at this time there was barely a UK ESP community)

2001 – Na in HD209458b (Charbonneau et al, Brown et al)


Future challenges exoplanets

2005 – first detection of thermal emission with spitzer (Charbonneau et al, Deeming et al)

2007 – (water vapour in ESP atmospheres, Tinneti et al)

2008 – first unambiguous direct images (Kalas et al, Marois et al) (probably other object a few years earlier)

2009 – launch of Kepler, 2 big esp results:

size distribution

multiple planet systems

(>50 HZ planets)

(but Kepler is transformational for stellar science)

2010 – first direct spectrum (Janson et al)

2011 – K22b?


Kepler

Kepler

Kepler is addressing important question – its prime science driver is

But Keplerhas raised many questions for example:

1) Are planets with R~2RE terrestrial or ice/gas composition

2) Multiple planets eg Why are these systems so flat?

3) Small planets

Kepler has given an opportunity to look at architectures in a new way - a field day for evolution and dynamics


New thinking themes

New thinking/themes…

  • Comparative planetology – tentative steps but probably not for a few years for a more thorough investigation. Diversity amongst small planets – Corot-7b/K10 (Mercury like) and quite different to many of the K11 components and GJ1214b

  • Planet-star interactions and tidal interactions – the Kepler data has made this a viable subject

  • Planetary atmospheres – Keplerdoesn’t help much, but in the future we can imagine looking at ages of planets (astroseismology) and atmospheric composition – what will we find?


Future challenges exoplanets

  • Planets in different environments especially binary systems and evolved stars

    sampling long period

    (relatively high mass) planets


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Exoplanet science is young – still in a discovery/characterisation phase. Fundamental discoveries are still being made – knowledge of ESP atmospheres is at best rudimentary. Theorists need more constraints.

  • Exoplanetscience, perhaps not unsurprisingly, driven by technology developments (be it hardware or sometime software (data analysis techniques)).

  • But also creative thinking (which can happen at any time)


An easy way out eprat 2010

An Easy Way out – EPRAT 2010

2011-17

2015-22

Post 2020


Ambitious plans don t last their first clash with reality

Ambitious plans don’t last their first clash with reality…


Big questions over this timescale

Big questions over this timescale

  • What is the diversity and architecture of exoplanetary systems as a function of stellar parameters and birth environment?

  • What is the diversity of the internal structure of exoplanets?

  • What is the diversity of exoplanetary atmospheres?

  • What is the origin of the diversity and how do planets form?

  • What are the conditions for planet habitability, how common is exo-life and can we detect the biosignatures?


Missing science

Missing science

  • Activity – we need to be much smarter in the way we deal with this – it is vital to getting the most out of our esp observations. This has implications – we have little information about planets and early type stars, some sketchy info on evolved stars. We need as many “clocks” as we can get hold of.

  • Formation – still missing an understanding of conglomerates – maybe ALMA?


Looking forward

Looking forward

Discovery/Characterisation potential technology driven

2012-16 Kepler extended mission?


Kepler looking forward

Kepler – looking forward

  • Devils advocate: What more is Kepler going to deliver? We already know ~ the frequency of terrestrial HZ planets (or rather that’s hidden in the data), so why bother? Is it really all about ?

  • No matter what you think of the ESP future the stellar astrophysics results will be transformational….

    (no one has mentioned the heatbeat binaries – its so cool!)


Looking forward1

Looking forward

Discovery/Characterisation potential technology driven

2012-16 Kepler extended mission?

2012-13 The start of “routine” direct imaging


Direct imaging

Direct Imaging

  • Planets are visible due to scattered starlight or because they are self luminous. The planetary cross-section is small so that scattered starlight is faint compared to host star (table in delta mags):

Ratio more favourable at IR wavelengths where planets can be self-luminous (depending on temperature). Need to block light from host star (coronagraph).

  • Resolution: as viewed from 10pc the Earth would be 0.1 arcsec and Jupiter 0.5 arcsec from the Sun. At 100 pc the separations are 10 and 50 milli-arcsec respectively. Telescope resolution (in milli-arcsec) dependant on aperture and wavelength:

Optical – resolution ok, contrast bad, IR – resolution worse, contrast better


Direct ground based imaging

Direct Ground based imaging

GPI

  • Coronagraphic devices

  • Large, young, planets at 5AU

Drivers: high contrast 14-16 mags, high angular resolution 0.1-3 arcsec, sensitivity down to V=10, companions to H~24, spectral resolution R~30

SPHERE


Looking forward2

Looking forward

Discovery/Characterisation potential technology driven

2012-16 Kepler extended mission?

2012-13 The start of “routine” direct imaging

2013-18 Astrometry begins


Astrometric detection

Astrometric detection

Astrometric techniques aim to measure the transverse component of the photocentric displacement. ‘Astrometric Signature’ given by:

Semi-major axis (AU), d distance (pc)

Note – signature scales linearly with semi-major axis (ie better for long period objects), compliments RV technique/transits which have bigger signals at short periods.

Astrometric limit given by the non-uniformity of illumination over the stellar disk eg in the case of the sun - a spot covering 1% of disk would cause the apparent centre of the sun to shift by up to 0.005RSun (the wobble induced in the sun by the Earth is has a maximum amplitude ~0.0003RSun).


Astrometric first detections

Astrometric First Detections

VB10 (Pravdo & Shaklin 2009). Host star is an extremely cool M dwarf

10yr of ground based measurements => 6 MJ companion in 0.74yr orbit

Not confirmed by recent results

Upcoming experiments

PRIMA/VLT (soon), ~30as

GAIA (launch 2012/3), ~10as

Maybe Sim(-lite) (2020? but not yet funded), 4as

Astrometric signal + RV => orbital plane etc 10as would enable the detection of

Jupiter’s to 240pc, Uranus’s to 44pc, Earth’s to 1.5pc


Looking forward3

Looking forward

Discovery/Characterisation potential technology driven

2012-16 Kepler extended mission?

2012-13 The start of “routine” direct imaging

2013-18 Astrometry begins

2019 or 2024 EUCLID/WFIRST micrlensing


Microlensing

Microlensing

  • First thing – I don’t believe EUCLID or WFIRST will have a microlensprogramme. Its already not in the EUCLID baseline, and I doubt WFIRST will even be build. But there is good reason for a microlens survey: it’s the easiest way to measure the frequency of terrestrial sized bodies at large orbital periods. There are many problems but this fact stands – there is a case for a mission – we cannot sample this parameter space by any other means


Looking forward4

Looking forward

Discovery/Characterisation potential technology driven

2012-16 Kepler extended mission?

2012-13 The start of “routine” direct imaging

2013-18 Astrometry begins

2019 or 2024 EUCLID/WFIRST micrlensing

2019 JWST


Future challenges exoplanets

JWST

Will be transformational in many areas in particular planet formation and atmospheres

Spectroscopy, coronagraphic imaging etc


Longer term

Longer term

  • Space Missions:

    These are actively being studied and in competitions

    TESS 2017 Explorer class. Bright star transit survey (but the devil or rather the correlated noise is in the detail…)

    FINESSE 2017 Explorer class. Hot-jupiter spectra

    PLATO 2024? ESA M3? Bright star transit survey

    ECHO 2024 ESA M3. Hot-jupiter, ice-giant, and maybe a HZ planet spectra.


Whats happened to all the other concepts

Whats happened to all the other concepts?

Darwin - interferometer

Sim(lite) – astrometry

TPF-C - coronagraph

TPF-I - interferometer

SEE-COAST – coronagraph

etc

There are loads more – too many to list. Why have they fallen away? Answ: mixture of immature technology and community infighting… <- this is our biggest danger and stems from our diversity.

Is there one mission/concept addressing top level science that the ESP community can gather behind?


Lets not forget ground based work

Lets not forget ground based work

  • RV surveys – ESPRESSO will be built and available from 2015, HARPS-N in the next few weeks (primarily Keplerfollowup)

  • NGTS (I could ignore it)

  • E-ELT? CODEX/AO Imaging


Lessons for young astronomers

Lessons for young astronomers

  • You need an angle – get attached to a project that will produce.

  • Work on a significant problem.

  • Look forward – try and gauge where the fun will be – right now all the Kepler small planets are in Harvard…

  • The next few years look to be difficult for PDRA positions – go where the job is (WASP/UK students and PDRA’s are involved in Keplerand other projects).


Conclusions1

Conclusions

This is a fast moving, dynamic subject!

Stand back-

We live at an extremely privileged time where the dreams/thoughts from our ancestors are, for the first time in reach.


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