Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?

1. WORKING DRAFT Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles? Name??? 05/22/06

2. The Current Task Phase I Phase II Extent of Current Activity

3. The Current Task • Current Phase I Focus • “Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?” (Tasks A, B, C-) • Future Phase I Focus • Develop a capability that provides a risk analysis for PA on the use of rifles versus shotguns and muzzleloading firearms • Make recommendations of alternative actions to improve hunting safety in populated area (Tasks C+, D, and E) • Future Phase II • Provide information and recommendations to consider on whether “Special Regulations Areas” should be expanded in Pennsylvania

4. Timeline • Will only proceed with Task D and E and Phase II with your permission Today

5. PGC Regulations centerfire rifles, handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball Arms & Ammunition General Statewide Seasons: 1) Manually operated centerfire rifles, handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball, or a bullet designed to expand on impact; 2) muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber or larger; and 3) long, recurve, compound or crossbows with broadheads of cutting-edge design. Buckshot is illegal, except in Southeast Special Regulations Area. Archery  Seasons: Long, recurve and compound bows with broadheads of cutting-edge design. Crossbows permitted for deer in WMUs 2B, 5C and 5D. Persons hunting deer in the archery seasons may not possess a firearm of any type. Flintlock Muzzleloader Season: Flintlock ignition, single-barrel long gun, 44-caliber or larger, using single projectile ammunition. Iron, open .V. or notch sights only. Fiber optic inserts permitted. Crossbows permitted, but users must have a muzzleloader stamp. October Antlerless Muzzleloader Season: Any muzzleloader long gun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger. Scope sights permitted. Crossbows permitted, but users must have a muzzleloader stamp. Special Regulations Areas: (All of Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania and all of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties in the southeast): Muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber or larger, bows and arrows, manual or autoloading shotguns .410 or larger using slugs and 20-gauge or larger using buckshot. Buckshot may not be used in Allegheny County. Only bows and arrows are permitted in Philadelphia County. Crossbows with a draw weight of at least 125 pounds, but not more than 200 pounds may be used during the regular firearms deer seasons, including the antlerless deer season Dec. 26-Jan. 14, in WMU 2B & and Dec. 12-23 & Dec. 26-Jan. 28 in WMUs 5C & 5D muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber Any muzzleloader long gun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger

6. Approach and Limitations • Only deer-related incidents • Used representative high-end systems • .30-06, 150 grain soft point projectile, muzzle velocity approximately 2910 fps •  Manual or autoloading shotgun, 12 gauge sabot .50 caliber 385 grain HP semi-spitzer, muzzle velocity approximately 1900 fps •  Muzzleloading long gun (Example CVA Kodiak .50 Caliber 209 Magnum Rifle) .50 caliber, 348 gr. CVA PowerBelt Bullet, 90 gr. Hodgdon Triple Seven FFFG, muzzle velocity approximately 1595 fps

7. Street, City County Name Township Zip Code Incident Date Rural/Urban (Description) Type of Property Damaged Property (Description) Firearm Type (Description) Projectile Population Density (Description) Grounding in the Facts Incident Data, 1997 – 2005+

8. Limitations Incident Data • Not exact location of the incident • Vehicle locations are of owner • Some missing data • Some fields are estimates • Sample size

9. Incidents • 464 Incidents • 98 Not Used (Non-deer hunting, etc) • 366 Incidents Used in County Level Analysis • No rifle incidents in Special Regulations Areas • 19% in Special Regulations Areas • 79% in rural areas • 75% are residential structures • 65% in population density less that 200 people/sq mile • 313 Address Matches (85%)

10. Legend Counties Non-Address Matches 0 1. 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 Special Regulations Areas Non-Address Match Incidents

11. Legend Counties Total Incidents (366 Incidents) 0 - 2 3 - 5 6 - 9 10 - 16 17 - 23 Incidents Firearm Type (313 Incidents) Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas Incidents

12. Deer Harvest • Harvests are estimates • 2005 estimates not available

13. Legend Counties Counties Incidents Firearm Type Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas 2nd Order Hot Spots 1st Order Hot Spots Hotspot Analysis Note: Hotspot analysis was performed using a program called CrimeStat I, developed for the National Institute of Justice

14. Hotspot Analysis • 2nd Order Hotspots in: • Adams, York, and Cumberland Counties • Chester*, Montgomery*, Berks, Bucks*, Lehigh, and Northampton Counties (* Special Regulations Area)

15. Legend Risk Incidents/Deer Harvest 0.000000 - 0.439920 0.439921 - 1.098770 1.098771 - 2.064850 2.064851 - 4.125249 4.125250 - 8.577337 Incidents Firearm Type Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas Rate Map of Incidents vs. Deer Harvest Compares the actual county incident rate to the predicted incident rate that would be observed in the county Reference: Smoothing & Excess Risk Algorithms Used in GeoDa: Anselin, L., Y. W. Kim and I. Syabri. Web-Based Analytical Tools for the Exploration of Spatial Data Journal of Geographical Systems (forthcoming). For more details on EB smoother, also see Bailey-Gatrell (1995) (pp. 303-308).

16. Legend Risk Incidents/Population 0.000000 - 0.481598 0.481599 - 1.123726 1.123727 - 1.868351 1.868352 - 3.734348 3.734349 - 8.056151 Incidents Firearm Type Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas Rate Map of Incidents vs. Population Need to carefully consider how to define risk: • Incidents vs. Deer Harvest • Incidents vs. Population

17. Site Visits

18. The address does not represent the actual location of the structure Address Matching

19. | 763 | | | COLEMAN | RD | | 17325

20. | 431 | S | | YORK | RD | | 17019

21. | 260 | W | | BARRENS VALLEY | RD | | 17019

22. | 331 | | | FRANKLIN CHURCH | RD | | 17019

23. | 323 | | | BERMUDIAN CREEK | RD | | 17316

24. | 2 | | | TWO CHURCHES | RD | | 17316

25. | 355 | | | ROCK VALLEY | RD | | 17304

26. | 687 | | | QUAKER CHURCH | RD | | 17372

27. | 101 | | | HUNTERSTOWN HAMPTON | RD | | 17325

28. Preliminary Analysis of the Facts • 366 incidents is minimal for an analysis • There are hot spots of incidents inside and outside Special Regulations Areas • Need to define risk • An analysis of incidents within a smaller geographic unit is desirable to reduce the spatial variation of factors across counties • Improving data is desirable • Using and X-Y coordinate to locate incidents • Strike forensics • Estimated values (deer harvest)

29. Ballistics as Represented in the 1998 Report

30. Physics: Ballistic Analysis on the Risk of Rifles versus Shotguns and Muzzleloaders Aeroballistics Division, AETC Picatinny Arsenal, NJ

31. Representative Ammunition • Rifle: 30-06 Springfield (7.62mmx63mm) soft point • Mass = 150 grains, MV = 2910 fps • Shotgun: 12 gauge sabot .50 caliber HP semi-spitzer • Mass = 385 grains, MV = 1900 fps • Muzzleloader: .50 caliber CVA Powerbelt • Mass = 348 grains, MV = 1595 fps

32. Comparison of flight ballistics to examine two areas Initial Impact Distance Subsequent Ricochet Distance Approach

33. Initial Conditions • For the shotgun and muzzleloader ammunition, drag curves for the complete Mach number flight regime were generated using Aerodynamic prediction codes • Shooter and target height was set at 3 feet • Firing elevations were varied for a set of conditions

34. Ricochet Distance • Once initial trajectories are computed, ricochet trajectories are simulated based on established ricochet databases from comparable military ammunitions • Trajectory Plots are provided with both initial and maximum ricochet distances

35. Ricochet Example

36. Trajectories for 35° Firing Elevation No ricochets after impact

37. Maximum Ranges No Ricochet

38. Trajectories for 10° Firing Elevation

39. 10o Elevation with Ricochet Band Thickness is Ricochet

40. Trajectories for 5° Firing Elevation

41. 5o Elevation with Ricochet Band Thickness is Ricochet

42. Trajectories for 0° Firing Elevation

43. 0o Elevation with Ricochet Band Thickness is the Ricochet

44. Findings • Initial impact distance differences between rifle and shotgun (muzzleloader) become greater with decreasing firing elevation • However, ricochet distance differences between rifle and shotgun (muzzleloader) become less with decreasing firing elevation • Ricochet distance is a more realistic gauge for comparing overall range safety • Moderate (5o) to high (10o) aiming error distance comparisons provide appropriate levels for qualifying risk

45. Findings (cont’d) • Although shotguns and muzzleloaders still produce shorter impact distances versus rifles, the differences are between 20 to 25 percent less than rifle • In terms of area, the differences are between 40 to 50 percent

46. Finding • “Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?” • Yes, but… • the margin of safety is much less than previously assumed • reducing ricochets is essential when using shotguns as a safety management tool

47. Recommendations • Based on this analysis, complete the Request for Information (RFI) to identify new technologies that will improve deer hunting safety • Perform ballistics analysis with the results from the RFI • Apply geographic analysis using the appropriate HR61 factors with new ballistics and technology to determine where to use safety management tool • Make suggestions to improve incident data collection for the 2006 season

48. Closing Thought “if it is indeed true that the non-hunting public holds the unfounded perception that the 12 gauge rifled shotgun/rifle is safer than center fire rifles using expanding spitzer bullets, then it behooves the Commission to educate this non-shooting population.” John C. HomsherStrausburg, PA September 10, 1997