ADAPTING OR LEARNING: POLICY APPRAISAL, THE RULES OF THE GAME AND BIOFUELS POLICY IN THE UK

1. ADAPTING OR LEARNING: POLICY APPRAISAL, THE RULES OF THE GAME AND BIOFUELS POLICY IN THE UK Dr Claire A. Dunlop Department of Politics Decarbonising the Car LSE 8th July 2009

2. Aims of the Paper • What depth of learning can policy appraisal stimulate? • Account of policy appraisal – political and cognitive factors using new institutional economic (NIE) analysis • Strength of using NIE – moves beyond functional explanations • Empirical illustration of biofuels in UK • Conclusions – move beyond limited learning types effected by reviews of appraisal evidence beyond government departments, key role of Chief Scientific Advisors

3. Research Approach and Proposition • Government learning on continuum between single and double-loop (Argyris and Schön, 1978) – adaptation or learning • Political world – tendency to single-loop adaptation not deep learning (Simon, 1957, North, 1990, Pierson, 2004) • Proposition: temporal features of policy appraisal may exacerbate these single-loop tendencies • Appraisals succeed goals • Different timetables • Information overload

4. Explaining the Impact of Policy Appraisal • NIE ‘rules of the game’ – create positive feedback and reinforce tendency toward single-loop adaptation not deep learning • Economic influence of technological evolution • Hierarchy and formal rules • Norms and socialization

5. UK Biofuels Policy and Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) Appraisal • 2 appraisal episodes: • RTFO appraisal 2004-2007 • Gallagher Review 2008 • From 2006 concerns growing, calls for moratorium on biofuel use and production • Appraisal learning was single-loop • But, importantly Gallagher did consider policy option of moratorium

6. 4 Sites of Positive Feedback (Arthur, 1988) • 1. Large-set up costs • 2. Learning by doing • 3. Co-ordination effects • 4. Adaptive expectations

7. Conclusions • NIE useful lens • Biofuels case – coordination effects of multilevel context limited how appraisal evidence on harm was interpreted • But, enhanced learning is possible – potential importance of one-off reviews of appraisal findings • Role for Chief Scientists as triggers of these reviews