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NCEP/EMC Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Modeling System

NCEP/EMC Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Modeling System. Vijay Tallapragada JCSDA-HFIP Workshop on Satellite Data Assimilation for Hurricane Forecasting December 02, 2010. 1. Outline. Current operational HWRF system Evolution of HWRF FY2011 ongoing developments

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NCEP/EMC Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Modeling System

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  1. NCEP/EMC Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Modeling System Vijay Tallapragada JCSDA-HFIP Workshop on Satellite Data Assimilation for Hurricane Forecasting December 02, 2010 1

  2. Outline • Current operational HWRF system • Evolution of HWRF • FY2011 ongoing developments • Collaborative efforts • Future developments

  3. Operational HWRF Modeling System • Current operational HWRF • Regional-Scale Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Modeling System specially designed to advance hurricane track and intensity forecasts. • Non-Hydrostatic system of equations formulated on a rotated latitude-longitude, Arakawa E-grid and a vertical, pressure hybrid (sigma-P) coordinate. • Based on WRF NMM V2.0 framework with movable, vortex following high-resolution nested grid • 27 km outer domain, 9 km inner domain, 42 vertical levels • Advanced vortex initialization and GSI/3DVAR data assimilation • Advanced vortex initialization and GSI/3DVAR data assimilation consisting of Vortex relocation, Storm size and intensity correction based on tcvitals, and combination of bogus (synthetic) vortex and six-hour cycling • Assimilation of satellite radiance datasets in the hurricane environment • Coupled to Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Atlantic • Feature based initialization of cold wake, loop current, warm and cold core eddies • Physical parameterizations designed for tropical environment • GFS/GFDL SAS Convection and PBL • GFDL Surface Physics, Radiation, Ferrier Microphysics 3

  4. Evolution of HWRF • Initial implementation in 2007 hurricane season • Model design and development of movable nested grid started in 2002 • Initial HWRF workshop at NSF in 2004 • 28 different configurations tested individually (each with about 200 simulations) before initial implementation • Extensive 3-season (2004-2006) pre-implementation testing of HWRF for all storms in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins • Vortex initialization upgrades in 2008 • Address intensity bias for weaker systems, modifications to storm balance • Infrastructure upgrade and transition to P6 in 2009 • Capability enhancements to allow coupling to HyCOM and Wave Watch-III • Script enhancements (identical scripts for NCO operations and EMC parallels) • Physics and initialization upgrades in 2010 to improve the forecast skill. • New baseline version with several bug fixes • Modified surface physics formulation and use of Gravity Wave Drag parameterization • Addition of satellite radiance data assimilation in the hurricane environment • Focus on reducing intensity bias 4

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  6. Performance of the Operational HWRF for 2010 ATL hurricane season HWRF Atlantic Track Forecast Errors HWRF Atlantic Intensity Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times) Rapid growth of intensity errors Negative bias for HWRF Atlantic Intensity Forecasts

  7. Performance of the Operational HWRF for 2010 EPAC hurricane season HWRF E-Pac Track Forecast Errors HWRF E-Pac Intensity Forecast Errors (less skillful at all times) Rapid growth of intensity errors Negative bias for HWRF E-Pac Intensity Forecasts

  8. Current HWRF activities/developments Major upgrade to the HWRF modeling system for 2011: Establish a community repository of the operational HWRF and upgrade HWRF infrastructure to V3.2+ (collaboration with DTC) Couple to HYCOM ocean model in the Atlantic Improve vortex initialization for more realistic storm size and intensity corrections Physics upgrades include testing of new GFS convection, modified PBL and modifications to treatment of horizontal diffusion Simplified operational system with added flexibility and multi-platform compatibility Subversion based code management HWRF-POM and HWRF-HYCOM baseline configurations for T&E Synchronization of EMC and DTC repositories Product development Generating simulated GOES WV and IR imagery and simulated radar reflectivity products starting in 2010 Additional simulated microwave products in 2011/2012 High-frequency output and additional derived variables for diagnostics Enhancements to GrADS based HPLOT diagnostics and visualization software New enhanced HWRF website for product display and navigation

  9. FY2011 Operational HWRF Configuration WRF Repository (hosted by DTC) Extensive Testing (pre implementation) HWRF operational configuration (2011) 02/2011 WRF V3.2+ 04/2010 WRF V3.2 Extensive Testing (individual upgrades) upgrades 2011 07/2009 WRF V3.1.1 • Modified vortex initialization (storm size correction and balanced vortex) • Coupling to HYCOM in the Atlantic • New GFS Deep/Shallow Convection • Modified PBL, Radiation, Microphysics • Modified horizontal diffusion 04/2009 WRF V3.1 04/2008 WRF V3.0 12/2006 WRF V2.2 08/2005 WRF V2.1 HWRF 2007 HWRF 2008 HWRF 2009 HWRF 2010 05/2004 WRF V2 9 Regional Hurricane Model Development at EMC

  10. Vortex Initialization Issues/Challenges HWRF produces too few strong storms Positive bias for weaker storms, negative for stronger storms (spinup/spindown) Insufficient vortex size correction Broad initial vertical structure

  11. 6h fcst Intensity correction Size correction Modified vortex initialization procedure: Improved mass/wind balance & storm size correction, with a focus on reducing initial spinup/ spindown issues, and improve track/intensity forecast skill in the first 12-24 hrs

  12. Time series of max. wind speed (Celia: 2010062218) 9kts drop at the first 9min 84kts becomes 55kts around the first 2hours Maximum wind speed (kts) Forecast Time (9min)

  13. 34kts radii distribution observation (y-axis) vs HWRF forecast (x-axis) 06hr 24hr 48hr 96hr 120hr 72hr

  14. Band 3 Loop Simulated Band 3 Loop Real 15

  15. Ongoing Model development & collaborative efforts Further advancements to the HWRF modeling system (EMC & HRD) third nest capability, advanced diagnostic capability (diapost), idealized simulations Code management and community support at DTC Setup HWRFV3.2+ and provide support to the community through DTC Development of R2O/O2R infrastructure and testing facility at DTC Data assimilation (EMC, HRD, CIRA) Real-time test of the P3 TDR data flow from aircraft to NCO/TOC/AOC and assimilation using advanced GSI. Ensemble data assimilation (MLEF, CIRA) and hybrid EnKF (HRD). HWRF Diagnostics (HFIP, EMC, NHC, FSU, CIRA, HRD, UMBC/UMD) Identifying forecast errors from different components of model physics and dynamics Hurricane model diagnostics, evaluation and verification Develop a common and comprehensive diagnostics framework and tools to integrate model output with available observations for verification Cloudtop datasets for storm scale diagnostics HWRF Physics (URI, GFDL, ESRL,HRD) Surface fluxes, sea spray and wave coupling Physics for high-resolution (convection, micro physics, PBL, LSM )

  16. Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land Land and coastal waters HWRF SYSTEM NMM V2.0 Hurricane atmosphere Upgrade to HWRF V3.2+ in FY2011 NOAH LSM* runoff GFDL Slab Model High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model* Surge* Inundation* fluxes Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer radiative fluxes winds air temp. other fluxes elevations currents 3D salinities temperatures SST currents FY2011Upgrade to HYCOM Ocean Model Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for Atlantic Region wave spectra WAVEWATCH III* Spectral wave model wave fluxes 17 *Future developments

  17. HWRF Prioritized Activities for FY11 Comprehensive testing of HWRFV3.2 Focus on reducing intensity errors in the first 24 hrs of forecast Focus on improving track forecast skill Focus on improving intensity forecast skill Comprehensive HWRF model diagnostics Real-time parallels using high resolution triple nested HWRF (27/9/3) Real-time parallels using advanced GSI and hybrid-EnKF DA methods Continuous advancements to the HWRF modeling system

  18. Advancing the HWRF System HWRFV3.2+ . Potential 2011 upgrades Future developments *Potential Computer upgrade Ongoing Work

  19. Thanks for your attention Questions?

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