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It is probable that all heavy matter possesses – latent and bound up with the structure of the atom – a similar quantity of energy to that possessed by radium. If it could be tapped and controlled what an agent it would be in shaping the world’s destiny! The man who

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It is probable that all heavy matter possesses –

latent and bound up with the structure of the atom –

a similar quantity of energy to that possessed by radium.

If it could be tapped and controlled what an agent it

would be in shaping the world’s destiny! The man who

put his hand on the lever by which a parsimonious nature

regulates so jealously the output of this store of energy

would possess a weapon by which he could destroy the

earth if he chose.

F. Soddy,1904


World nuclear plant distribution
World Nuclear Plant Distribution

443 Total Nuclear Generating Facilities (364.9 GW)

Sources: International Nuclear Safety Center and Energy Information Administration

Regional Analysis


Wedges

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

14

14 GtC/y

Currently projected path

Seven “wedges”

O

Historical

emissions

7 GtC/y

7

Flatpath

1.9 

0

2104

1954

2004

2054


Nuclear power and global warming
Nuclear Power and Global Warming

Compared to a modern coal plant, nuclear would save about 186 g C/kWh or 680 g CO2/y

Total emissions today is about 7 gigatons C/y

Business as usual to 2050 projects about 14 gigatons C/y

700 GW nuclear could save about 1 gigaton C/y


Some countries in 1500 gw world
Some Countries in 1500 GW World

Algeria Pakistan

Armenia Philippines

Azerbajian Poland

Belarus Romania

Georgia Thailand

Indonesia Turkey

Iran Turkmenistan

North Korea Uzbekistan

Malaysia Venezuela

Mexico Vietnam


Lashkar A’bad

Sites circled in red

unknown pre-mid 2002

Ardekan

Gachin



Lashkar A’bad

Sites circled in red

unknown pre-mid 2002

Ardekan

Gachin


Natanz gas centrifuge uranium enrichment complex
Natanz Gas Centrifuge Uranium Enrichment Complex

Covered electric

transformer station

Dummy bldgs

to conceal

Ventilation shafts

Dummy bldg

to conceal

entrance ramp

AFTER: 20 JUN 04

DigitalGlobe Quickbird commercial satellite image

  • Covert facility in remote location, could enrich uranium for weapons

  • Dummy structures to prevent detection and identification

  • Concealed underground, hardened, well defended




Virtually any combination of plutonium isotopes … can be used to make a nuclear weapon… Reactor-grade plutonium is weapons-usable, whether by unsophisticated proliferators or by advanced nuclear weapon states. Theft of separated plutonium, whether weapon-grade or reactor-grade, would pose a grave security risk.”US Department of Energy, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Assessment of Weapons-Usable Fissile Material Storage and Excess Plutonium Disposal Alternatives, DOE/NN-0007, Washington, D.C., January 1997.


Materials Pathways for Advanced Separations/Recycling

Separation Plant

(>99.9999% U)

Receipt

(>99% Tc)

(>99.9% Cs/Sr)

High Radiation

Moderate Radiation

Low Radiation

and Storage

(>99.99% Pu/Am/Cm)

(>99.9% Np)

Transportation

Reactor Complex

(>99.99% Pu/Am/Cm)

(>99.9% Np)

(<0.1% lanthanides)

Note: no high-level liquid waste requiring underground tank storage


Some new irans
SOME NEW “IRANS”?

Countries with negligible nuclear power today, but lots in 2050:

Italy, South Africa, Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, Algeria, Morocco, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Thailand, North Korea, and several former Soviet republics.

GNEP would reverse 30+ years of no reprocessing in U.S. In that time no new commercial reprocessing anywhere.


Sustainability of a two tier world
SUSTAINABILITY OF A TWO-TIER WORLD?

, “I am concerned about a trend that we see reflected in the U.S.-India nuclear deal where we try to address proliferation risks by assessing the character of regimes and governments. Such an approach opens up divisions among the world’s nuclear powers, with each making a list of ‘friends’ who can be trusted with nuclear technology, and ‘foes’ who are dangerous risks,”

“Iran’s nuclear ambitions – a modest proposal,” Brent Scowcroft, The National Interest, Spring 2006.


A REPORT ON THE

INTERNATIONAL CONTROL

OF ATOMIC ENERGY

Prepared for

THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S COMMITTEE ON

ATOMIC ENERGY

by a Board of Consultants

Washington, D. C. March 16, 1946


… there is no prospect of security against atomic warfare

in a system of international agreements to outlaw such weapons

controlled only by a system which relies on inspection

and similar police-like methods. The reasons supporting

this conclusion are not merely technical but primarily

the inseparable political, social, and organizational problems

involved in enforcing agreements between nations, each free

to develop atomic energy but only pledged not to use bombs.

So long as intrinsically dangerous activities may be carried

out by nations, rivalries are inevitable and fears are engendered

that place so great a pressure on a system of enforcement by

police methods that no degree of ingenuity or technical competence

could possibly cope with them.


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