The south american monsoon system recent evolution and current status
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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 April 2014. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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The south american monsoon system recent evolution and current status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Update prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

28 April 2014

For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons


Outline

Outline

  • Highlights

  • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions

  • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts

  • Climatology


Highlights

Highlights

  • Large rainfall deficits persist over the SAMS core region (Brazilian Plateau).

  • During the last 7 days (21-27 April 2014), below-average precipitation was observed over coastal areas of northeastern South America, southern Brazil, Uruguay and eastern Argentina, and above-average precipitation was observed over northern Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and portions of the western Amazon Basin.

  • For 28 April-4 May 2014, below-average precipitation is predicted for the southern Amazon Basin and southeastern Brazil, and above-average precipitation is southern Chile, Paraguay, extreme northeastern Argentina and portions of southern Brazil.


Rainfall total anomaly patterns last 7 days

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over coastal areas of northeastern South America, southern Brazil, Uruguay and eastern Argentina, and above-average precipitation was observed over northern Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and portions of the western Amazon Basin.


Rainfall totals anomaly patterns last 30 days

Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days

Total

Anomaly

During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over the eastern and southern Amazon Basin, Venezuela, western Colombia and Ecuador. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Paraguay and most of Argentina.


Recent evolution rainfall last 90 days

BP

Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days

BP: Brazilian Plateau

  • 90-day rainfall deficits (100-300 mm) continue over the Brazilian Plateau and the southern Amazon Basin.

  • 90-day rainfall totals are near average over southern Brazil.


Tropical pacific and atlantic sst anomalies

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies

SSTs are above average in most of the equatorial Pacific. SSTs are near average in most of the equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.)

A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml


Atmospheric circulation recent 7 days

Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days

  • Upper panels: During the period of 19-25 April 2014, anomalous cyclonic circulation was observed over the western Atlantic near 35S (red C).

  • Lower panels: Areas of anomalous rising motion were found over Bolivia, northern Paraguay and southern Brazil, while anomalous sinking motion, a proxy for suppressed precipitation, was observed over Chile, most of Argentina, and Uruguay.

C

Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions.

Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.


925 hpa wind temperature

925-hPa Wind &Temperature

Recent 30 Days

Recent 7 Days

  • During the 7-day period 19-25 April 2014, below-average temperatures were observed over eastern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.

Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.


Ncep gfs model forecasts bias corrected precipitation

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation

Forecasts from 28 Apr 2014– Days 1-7

Total

Anomaly

Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.


Ncep gfs model forecasts bias corrected precipitation1

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation

Forecasts from 28 Apr 2014– Days 8-14

Total

Anomaly

Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.


Ncep gfs model forecasts

NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS

  • For Days 1-7 (28 Apr-4 May 2014), below-average precipitation is predicted for the southern Amazon Basin and southeastern Brazil, and above-average precipitation is southern Chile, Paraguay, extreme northeastern Argentina and portions of southern Brazil.

  • For Days 8-14 (5-11 May 2014), below-average precipitation is predicted for the southern Amazon Basin and southeastern Brazil, and above-average precipitation northern Northeast Brazil, southern Paraguay, and eastern Argentina.


Forecast verification

Forecast Verification

Forecast from 14 Apr 2014

Valid for 21-27 Apr 2014

Forecast from 21 Apr 2014 Valid for 21-27 Apr 2014

Observed 21-27 Apr 2014


Climatology rainy season dates

ClimatologyRainy Season Dates

ONSET

DEMISE


Precipitation climatology

Precipitation Climatology


Precipitation climatology animation

Precipitation Climatology Animation


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