Rising to Depletion ?
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 37

Rising to Depletion ? PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 38 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Rising to Depletion ?. Towards a dialogue on the state of national marine fisheries. A PROFISH Preliminary Report presented to the World Bank on 26 May 2009. Outline. Introduction The approach The data Selected results Discussion Conclusions. 1. Introduction The study backdrop.

Download Presentation

Rising to Depletion ?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Rising to depletion

Rising to Depletion ?

Towards a dialogue on the state of national marine fisheries

A PROFISH Preliminary Report presented to the World Bank on 26 May 2009


Outline

Outline

  • Introduction

  • The approach

  • The data

  • Selected results

  • Discussion

  • Conclusions


1 introduction the study backdrop

1. IntroductionThe study backdrop

  • 90% of stocks are under national jurisdiction and the large majority is under excessive pressure

  • Countries are responsible and committed to restore stocks by 2015 (WSSD POI) but progress is very slow

  • At global level, information on stocks is often scarce, fragmented, too slowly updated and often outdated

  • There is therefore no regularly updated and easily accessible indicator of fishery development level at national, regional or global level


1 introduction the study outcome

1. IntroductionThe study outcome

  • An approach providing a simple, generally available and effective entry point into an interactive fishery reform process

  • The approach is scalable, at sub-sectoral, sectoral, national, regional or global levels

  • It may encourage countries to:

    • Build on their existing efforts, making better use of available statistics

    • Improve the quality of their statistics formalizing their use as indicators and

    • Publicly account for the health of their fishery resources


2 approach the development cycle

Max landing

Max growth

Zero growth

0

I II III IV V

Undev. Developing Mature Senescent Recovering

2. Approach The development cycle

Aggregate landings

Relative growth rate

Time


2 approach t he phase graph

Max landing

Max growth

II

I

III

V

IV

2. ApproachThe phase graph

Growth rate

Zero growth

0

Landings


2 approach the development cycle1

2. ApproachThe development cycle

I II III IV V

Landings ( )

Landings

0

Time

II

Growth rate

V

I

III

0

IV

Landings


2 approach the development cycle2

III

III

III

IV?

II

IV

IV

III

IV

II

I

2. ApproachThe development cycle

Growth Rate or landings

0

Time


2 approach the phase graph

Fluctuation loops

II

I

III

V?

IV

2. ApproachThe phase graph

Growth rate

0

Landings


2 approach fao areas and home areas

Country A

Country A

Country B

Country B

Home Area B

Home Area A

Home Area B

Home Area A

Offshore resources limit

Long-range fleets grounds

Offshore resources limit

Limit of the FAO Area

Limit of the FAO Area

2. ApproachFAO Areas and Home Areas


3 data

3. Data

  • FAO FISHSTAT+ landings database

  • Marine capture fisheries 1950-2006 in Home Areas

  • 5 taxonomic categories

    • Total Fishes

    • Bottom Fishes

    • Small Pelagic Fishes

    • Other Fishes

    • Crustaceans

  • 3 indicators (raw and smoothed)

    • Reported landings

    • Annual relative rates of increase

    • Annual landing ratio (Lt/Lmax)


4 selected results

4. Selected results

  • Typical patterns

  • World level diagnostic

  • Regional level diagnostic

  • National level diagnostic

  • Other observations


4a typical patterns

4aTypical patterns

World-Total

Belgium-Total

Denmark-Total


4a typical patterns albania total

Albania-Total Fishes

Albania-Total

50

30

9000

20

40

8000

10

30

7000

0

20

6000

-10

10

5000

ROI (%)

-20

0

ROI (%)

4000

-30

Landings (Tonnes)

-10

-40

3000

-20

-50

2000

-30

-60

1000

-40

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

-50

0

Landings (tonnes)

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

4a. Typical patternsAlbania - Total


4 b world level

4bWorld level

Total Fishes

Bottom Fishes

Pelagic Fishes


Rising to depletion

4bWorld Level

Other Fishes

Crustaceans

Cephalopods


Rising to depletion

4cRegional Level

Area 21-Total

Area 27-Total

Area 31-Total


4 colour coding

4. Colour coding

Developing

Mature

Senescent

LMax

100

90

75

% of LMAX

50

I II III IV

0

Time


4 c regional total fishes

4.C Regional – Total Fishes


4c regional bottom fishes

4c. Regional - Bottom Fishes


4 c regional bottom fishes in development phases

4.C Regional – Bottom Fishes% in development phases


4d national level types of patterns

Developing: Indonesia 77

Developing

t)

t)

3

20

70

30

6

3

60

2,5

15

20

50

2

10

40

ROI (%)

ROI (%)

1,5

5

10

Landings (10

Landings (10

30

1

0

20

0

0,5

-5

10

0

-10

0

-10

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Mature

t)

70

30

70

30

3

60

60

20

20

50

50

40

40

ROI (%)

ROI (%)

10

10

Landings (10

30

30

20

20

0

0

10

10

0

-10

0

-10

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

4d. National levelTypes of patterns

Mature: Cameroon

t)

3

Landings (10


4d national level types of patterns1

Senescent (1): Singapore

Senescent 1

t)

20,0

30

70

30

t)

3

60

3

20

15,0

20

50

10

40

ROI5 (%)

ROI (%)

10,0

0

10

Landings5 (10

30

Landings (10

-10

20

5,0

0

-20

10

0,0

-30

0

-10

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Senescent 2): Belgium

Senescent (2)

t)

70

10

70

30

t)

3

60

60

3

5

20

50

50

40

40

ROI5 (%)

0

ROI (%)

10

30

Landings5 (10

Landings (10

30

20

-5

20

0

10

10

0

-10

0

-10

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

4d. National levelTypes of patterns


4d national level types of patterns2

Indeterminate

t)

70

30

3

60

20

50

40

ROI (%)

10

Landings (10

30

20

0

10

0

-10

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

4d. National levelTypes of patterns


4d national level summary diagnostic

4d. National levelSummary diagnostic

*Note: countries bordering more than one FAO Area are counted more than once


4 d national level rising to depletion

4d. National levelRising to depletion?

Total Fishes

Bottom Fishes

Home areas

Home areas

1952 2004

1952 2004


4d national level

4dNational level

% in development phases


4d national level comparison of patterns

4d. National levelComparison of patterns


4e other observations oscillations

Tanzania - Total

30

Growth

20

10

ROI5 (%)

0

-10

Stabilization?

-20

0

10

20

30

40

50

3

Landings5 (10

t)

4e. Other observationsOscillations

Environment or business cycles?


4e other observations pattern similarities

4e. Other observationsPattern similarities

Data manipulations or large scale environmental signals?


4e other observations abnormal patterns

Ind. war 1961-74

4e. Other observationsAbnormal patterns


5 conclusion the title

Rising

0

Depletion

5. ConclusionThe title

to

As the aggregated level of saturation of the sector is reached, the risk of depletion increases


5 conclusion the bottom line

5. ConclusionThe bottom line

  • Countries are responsible for meeting their WSSD commitments

  • A robust country-level indicator on the state of the sector would help counties assess their progress and inform society

  • Existing statistics offer a possibility to be fully examined. They are underused and could be improved

  • Countries can improve on this first proposal through their own efforts. The Bank could help.

  • Country reporting to FAO would also be improved


5 conclusions what next regarding the study

5.ConclusionsWhat next regarding the study?

  • Continue peer review

  • Complete the analyses by resource types

  • Case studies (West Africa)


Rising to depletion

5Conclusions

Senegal (left)

Ghana (right)


5 conclusions what next regarding cases studies

5. ConclusionsWhat next regarding cases studies ?

  • Identify partner countries : normal, abnormal

  • Check sensitivity to drivers:

  • Integrate stock-specific and sector-wide analyses

  • Integrate development and management

  • Combine with sector-level economic analysis


Towards what future

Recovery

1950-2006

Future

Demise

1950-2006

Future

Towards what future?

Many thanks for your attention


  • Login