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Project Minerva Workshop

Project Minerva Workshop. COLA at George Mason University 16-17 September 2013. Welcome!. COLA News. GMU Ph.D . Program in Climate Dynamics. Affiliated with the Department of Atmospheric , Oceanic, and Earth Sciences Faculty T . DelSole ; Ph.D., Harvard Univ.

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Project Minerva Workshop

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  1. Project Minerva Workshop COLA at George Mason University 16-17 September 2013

  2. Welcome!

  3. COLA News

  4. GMU Ph.D. Program in Climate Dynamics Affiliated with the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences Faculty • T. DelSole; Ph.D., Harvard Univ. • P. Dirmeyer; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland • B. Huang; Ph.D., Univ. of Maryland • V. Krishnamurthy; Ph.D., M.I.T. • J. Kinter; Ph.D., Princeton Univ. B. Klinger; Ph.D., M.I.T./Woods Hole Ocean. Inst. E. Schneider; Ph.D., Harvard Univ. P. Schopf; Ph.D., Princeton Univ. J. Shukla (director); Ph.D., B.H.U.; Sc.D., M.I.T C. Stan; Ph.D., Colorado State Univ. D. Straus (chair, AOES); Ph.D., Cornell Univ.

  5. Project Minerva • Explore the impact of increased atmospheric resolution on model fidelity and prediction skill in a coupled, seamless framework byusing a state-of-the-art coupled operational long-range prediction system to systematically evaluate the prediction skill and reliability of a robust set of hindcast ensembles at low, medium and high atmospheric resolutions • NCAR Advanced Scientific Discovery Program to inaugurate Yellowstone(72 K-core IBM iDataPlex) • Allocated 21 M core-hours on Yellowstone • Used ~28 M core-hours (Our jobs squeaked in under core size that “broke” the system) Many thanks to NCAR for resources and sustained support!

  6. Project Minerva • COLA team: • Ben Cash, lead • RondroBarimalala • Paul Dirmeyer • Mike Fennessy • V. Krishnamurthy • Julia Manganello • David Straus • University of Oxford: • Tim Palmer • Andrew Dawson ECMWF team: • Frederic Vitart, lead • Roberto Buizza • ErlandKallen • Franco Molteni • Tim Stockdale • Peter Towers • Nils Wedi Many thanks to ECMWF for code and sustained collaboration!

  7. ECMWF Coupled Ensemble Systems Courtesy Franco Molteni & Frederic Vitart, ECMWF

  8. ECMWF Coupled Ensemble Systems Courtesy Franco Molteni & Frederic Vitart, ECMWF

  9. Minerva Prediction Experiments

  10. Minerva: Coupled Prediction of Tropical Cyclones 11-12 June 2005 hurricane off west coast of Mexico: precipitation in mm/day every 3 hours (T1279 coupled forecast initialized on 1 May 2005) The predicted maximum rainfall rate reaches 725 mm/day (30 mm/hr) Based TRMM global TC rainfall observations (1998-2000), the frequency of rainfall rates exceeding 30 mm/hr is roughly 1%

  11. Minerva vs. AthenaNH TC Frequency JJASON; T1279 9-Year Mean (2000-2008) OBS 49.9 Athena 59.1 Minerva 48.9 (all members) Athena IBTrACS Minerva

  12. Individual Forecast Anomalies MAY 2013 Precipitation IC: 01 May 2013 Ens: 2 members May Mean Soil Wetness

  13. Individual Forecast Anomalies MAY-JULY 2013 Precipitation IC: 01 May 2013 Ens: 2 members May-July Mean Soil Wetness

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