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The AQ Operational Review Group 2009

The AQ Operational Review Group 2009. 12 November – 31 Homer Road, Solihull.

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The AQ Operational Review Group 2009

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  1. The AQ Operational ReviewGroup 2009 12 November – 31 Homer Road, Solihull “Whilst every effort is made to ensure the technical accuracy of the information contained within this presentation, xoserve can accept no responsibility for any claims (however they arise) made against the company as a result of using the information contained within this presentation” AQ Review 2009

  2. Analytical Services, Revenue Assurance Reporting & AQ Review Team Structure (01/06/09) Dean Johnson Operations Manager (XM1) Joseph Lloyd Business Analyst (TS6) Sue Prosser Account Officer (TS6) Mark Perry Business Analyst (TS6) John Ryder Business Analyst (TS6) Neil Cole Business Analyst (TS6) John Harris A. Administrator (TS4) Frank Miracco A. Administrator (TS4) Sabah Hussain Year In Industry (TS2) Matthew Harper A. Administrator (TS4) Ian Bevan A. Assistant (TS2) Alan Heer A. Assistant (TS2) Andy Hinton A. Assistant (TS2) Nicky Kingham A. Assistant (TS2) AQ Review 2009

  3. Outstanding Actions Actions from previous AQ Meeting held on 25th March 2009 AQ Review 2009

  4. Outstanding Actions Slide 8 - Domestic Energy Report • New slide created from Trial Calc 2009. This slide shows Energy split by LDZ for SSP and LSP. xoserve action to investigate if a new column can be added to slide to show the ‘Final AQ’. There is no actual final energy during a Trial Calc, therefore no new column will be added to the slide. Slide 15 - AQ Appeal Activity 2009 • The slide shows the AQ Appeals received. xoserve action was the show the AQ decision: System Calc, Spec Calc or Carry Forward for the Appeals activity for September, October, November and December 2008. This breakdown was published with the Meeting Minutes on the xoserve website on 9th April 2009. AQ Review 2009

  5. Domestic Energy Report AQ Review 2009

  6. AQ Review 2009

  7. Outstanding Actions Slide 22 - Any Other Business • Mark Jones raised a question regarding the November AQ Forum Slides The LSP and SSP Energy Movement slides, whether it would be useful to have the Energy numbers quoted to one decimal point. The slides will be kept this same, but the full Energy values will be published in the Meeting Minutes. • A question was asked if the Trial Calc reports, Warnings and Threshold Crossers could be sent any earlier These reports were only sent out as a trial. We are happy to release these reports again for Trial Calc 2010. It will be our best endeavours to send out the reports to the same timescales as last year (22nd January) Presentation of what xoserve found……. AQ Review 2009

  8. LSP Energy Movement 219,590,373,357 245,787,925,679 231,764,005,614 AQ Review 2009

  9. SSP Energy Movement Small Supply Point (Domestic) Movement 374,757,812,309 367,450,747,668 361,423,783,111 AQ Review 2009

  10. Threshold Crossers 2009 Trial Calc → Actual Calc The total number of Meter Points on the Threshold Crossers report has increased by 109,445 MPRs from Trial Calc to Actual Calc. This is an increase of 28.43%. The total number of Meter Points on the Threshold Crossers Manual Analysis has increased by 5,622 MPRs from Trial Calc to Actual Calc. This is an increase of 24.19%. The total number of Meter Points that appeared on the Trial Calc Threshold Crossers, then again on the Actual calc Threshold Crossers was 344,654. This is 89.52% of the Trial Calc Threshold Crossers and 69.71% of the Actual Calc Threshold Crossers. The total number of Meter Points that were Manually Checked in the Trial Calc Threshold Crossers, then again in the Actual calc Threshold Crossers was 15,787. This is 67.93% of the Trial Calc Manual Analysis and 54.70% of the Actual Calc Manual Analysis. The total number of Meter Points that Manually Checked in the Trial Calc Threshold Crossers and also appeared in the Actual calc Threshold Crossers was 17,875. This is 4.64% of the Trial Calc Threshold Crossers and 3.62% of the Actual Calc Threshold Crossers. AQ Review 2009

  11. The AQ Operational ReviewGroup 2009 12 November – 31 Homer Road, Solihull AQ Review 2009 1

  12. Introduction 2006Total Calculated: 18,402,513SSP: 18,086,922 – LSP: 315,591Carried Forward: 206,450None Calcs: 4,798,200SSP: 4,598,576LSP: 199,624 2007Total Calculated: 17,917,849SSP: 17,559,109 – LSP: 358,740Carried Forward: 236,634None Calcs: 4,770,232SSP: 4,605,182 LSP: 165,050 2008Total Calculated: 18,417,477SSP: 18,088,731 – LSP: 328,746Carried Forward: 258,468None Calcs: 4,371,570SSP: 4,195,203LSP: 176,367 2009Total Calculated: 18,696,274SSP: 18,373,665 – LSP: 322,609Carried Forward: 231,347None Calcs: 4,186,595SSP: 4,031,034LSP: 155,561 AQ Review 2009 2

  13. LSP Energy Movement AQ Review 2009 3

  14. SSP Energy Movement Small Supply Point Movement AQ Review 2009 4

  15. AQ’s Calculated – Trial Calc AQ Review 2009 5

  16. AQ’s Calculated – Actual Calc AQ Review 2009 6

  17. Meter Point Movement : Current to Amended AQ AQ Review 2009 7

  18. Energy Movement : Current to Amended AQ AQ Review 2009 8

  19. Meter Points Calculated Large Supply Points Total Meter Points Calculated 322,609 (155,561 Non-Calcs) • Current Energy 245 TWH • xoserve Calculated Energy 220 TWH • Final Applied Energy 01/10 232 TWH (Incl. 1.1 TWH SSP - LSP – 19,835 M.Points) Small Supply Points Total Meter Points Calculated 18,373,665 (4,031,034 Non-Calcs) • Current Energy 374 TWH • xoserve Calculated Energy 367 TWH • Final Applied Energy 01/10 361 TWH (Incl. 3.0 TWH LSP - SSP – 41,453 M.Points) AQ Review 2009 9

  20. Warnings Report (LSP) AQ Review 2009 10

  21. Warnings Report (LSP) AQ Review 2009 11

  22. Warnings Report (SSP) AQ Review 2009 12

  23. Warnings Report (SSP) AQ Review 2009 13

  24. Calculated AQs Threshold Crossers – SSP to LSP Total Meter Points Crossing19,853 • Current Energy 1.1 TWH • Final Applied Energy 2.2 TWH Threshold Crossers – LSP to SSP Total Meter Points Crossing41,453 • Current Energy 5.0 TWH • Final Applied Energy 2.0 TWH AQ Review 2009 14

  25. AQ 2009: Speculative Calculator File Submission By SHP AQ Review 2009 15

  26. AQ Amendments Total AQ Amendments Received 2,249,153 • Total Accepted 2,185,474 (97.2%) • Total Rejected 63,679 (2.8%) - Inclusive of Referrals Total Referrals10,840 • Total Accepted 6,132 (56.6%) • Total Rejected 4,708 (43.4%) Standards Of Service • 100% Clearance in……..15 Days • 100% Clearance in……… 5 Days • 99.7% Clearance in……….2 Days AQ Review 2009 16

  27. Total Amendments Received As % of Shipper Portfolio AQ Review 2009 17

  28. % of Amendments Accepted or Rejectedby Shipper AQ Review 2009 18

  29. Amendment Rejections by Rejection Code AQ Review 2009 19

  30. Amendment Rejections by Rejection Code Top 10 Rejection Reasons AQ Review 2009 20

  31. % of Amendments + or – xoserve Proposed AQ by Shipper AQ Review 2009 21

  32. Total Number of Amendments by Shipper : Count & Energy AQ Review 2009 22

  33. AQ Appeal Activity 2009 AQ Review 2009 23

  34. Appeal Activity 2009 – January to October N.B. The appeals window was closed from 31 July to 14 September 2009. AQ Review 2009 24

  35. AQ Appeal Activity 2008 v 2009 January to October 3 Average Days Taken to Clear (2009) AQ Review 2009 25

  36. T.O.G.

  37. TOG – Theft of Gas A valid Theft of Gas is the taking of gas by bypassing the gas meter and/or the physical tampering of a meter to avoid its actual consumption being registered. Suggestion: xoserve are notified of approximately 150 valid Theft of Gas cases on a Monthly basis. Where a Theft of Gas has occurred and an AQ calculation overlaps the period of theft, then the calculation will not be a true reflection of a sites gas consumption. The AQ Team have analysed 584 valid Theft of Gas cases and found that of this total 104 AQ calculations overlapped a Theft and had a decreasing AQ value for AQ Review 2009. Solution: • The AQ Team would like to propose that the previous gas years AQ is Carried Forward where a calculation overlaps a Theft and the AQ value is decreasing. AQ Review 2009

  38. Example Theft of Gas period, 01/01/2007 – 20/01/2009 AQ calculation dates, 01/03/2008 – 21/03/2009 Current AQ, 65,000 kWh Calculated AQ, 10,000 kWh Current AQ of 65,000 kWh to be Carried Forward AQ Review 2009

  39. Seasonal Normal Review:Impact to AQ Backstop DateAQ Forum – 12th November 2009

  40. Background – Seasonal Normal Review & WAALPs • Understanding the relationship between gas demand and weather is fundamental to the demand modelling carried out by the gas industry • At least every 5 years Transporters must review the application & appropriateness of the gas industry weather variable known as CWV (Composite Weather Variable) - UNC Section H • The seasonal normal review process incorporates: • Review of CWV methodology and parameters • Appropriateness of current seasonal normal weather basis - calculated as SNCWV • Last review was in 2005 and the current basis is only effective until 30th September 2010 • Seasonal Normal review process has been ongoing during 2009 and is being managed by DESC • All material available on Joint Office website

  41. Background – Seasonal Normal Review & WAALPs • New basis and revised values are required to be effective from 1st October 2010 to 30th September 2015 • Once revised basis has been agreed, the outputs from the Seasonal Normal (SN) Review are: • Revised SNCWVs, ALP, DAF & EWCF parameters adjusted to new SN basis • Revised values used in calculation of future and historical Weather Adjusted Annual Load Profiles (WAALP) • WAALPs are subsequently used in the calculation of AQs (UNC H3.4) • Adjusting the Relevant Metered Quantity (RMQ) of the AQ to a SN value • Representative of expected consumption under average conditions

  42. AQ Calculation – Historical WAALPs • KEY: AQ calculations are based on historical consumption that is used to represent a view of expected consumption in the next 12 months adjusted to SN • IMPACT: Historical WAALP values have to be recalculated to the new SN basis for AQs effective from 01/10/10 • WAALP values are recalculated to new SN basis using the most recent Demand Estimation demand models i.e. from 2008/09 to apply 2009/10 (UNC H3.4.3) • The recalculated values will be used in March 2010 (onwards) AQ Review calculation processes • For AQs that are not calculated (i.e. Carry Forward AQs) • A multiplicative factor per EUC will be applied to the current AQ value to adjust from the old SN basis to the new SN basis • UNC H3.4.4 (AQ = (Current AQ x (A/B))

  43. Timeline to Derive and Implement WAALPs • SNCWV’s derived and finalised by the end of December 2009 • Historical WAALP values derived by re-running latest Demand Estimation models - January & February 2010 • New historical WAALP values up to February 2010 are loaded into Transporter systems at start of March 2010 • Ongoing daily calculation and loading of WAALPs for March 2010 to September 2010 takes place • AQ calculation (SSP) takes place in March 2010 (LSP – April) • Utilising historical WAALP values and metered quantity

  44. Issues Resulting in UNC MOD 268 • 1.Timescales are tight to derive the new SNCWV and parameters based on the new SN basis • Calculating additional historical WAALPs would require significant additional modelling as the models being used (as per UNC) only utilise data post 01/10/06 • 2.Models used to back calculate new WAALPs are based on data pertaining to 01/10/06 onwards (06/07, 07/08 and 08/09) • Models not representative of the period prior to 01/10/06 • WAALP data will only be available back to 01/10/2006 for AQ calculations

  45. Issues Resulting in UNC MOD 268 • 3. UNC (H3.2.3) currently states that AQs can be calculated using meter reads back to to 01/10/2002 - AQ ‘backstop date’ • No consumption history prior to this date can be used • Changed during last SN Review in 2005 (Modification 0018) • Conflict – what is possible and appropriate with what is required in UNC • If AQs are calculated using the old (or a mixed) SN basis • + • New SN basis is anticipated to create warmer SNCWVs thereby reducing AQs • Old SN basis WAALPS creates AQs that are too high (allocation, charging, rec. etc) • Would not adhere to UNC (two SN basis)

  46. Current UNC Text • Relevant UNC Section H3.2: • 3.2.3 The starting Meter Read shall be: • (a) the latest Valid Meter Read before the target opening date, or if there was no such Meter Read less than three years before the target opening date; • (b) subject to paragraph 3.2.4, the first Valid Meter Read after the target opening date. • Provided always that the starting Meter Read shall be no earlier than 1 October 2002 • 3.2.4 If there was no Valid Meter Read less than three years before the target opening date or more than 6 months before the ending Meter Read, or the first Valid Meter Read after the target opening date was earlier than 1 October 2002, paragraph 3.1.2 shall apply. • Fixing a date in UNC is not a preferable option • Same issue will arise in the future

  47. Proposal (UNC Modification 268) UNC SECTION H3.2 • Proposal: • Change the AQ backstop date in UNC from 01/10/2002 to be • Start of the gas year in which a Seasonal Normal Review becomes effective (01/10/xx) – 4 years • e.g. 01/02/10 backstop becomes 01/10/06 • e.g. 01/02/15 backstop becomes 01/10/11 • Change to be effective 1st February the preceding year • Therefore backstop date would be • At its shortest point (February prior to SN change effective year) 3 years 4 months • At its longest point (January prior to SN change effective year) 8 years 4 months

  48. Effect of Implementation

  49. Proposal Requirements • Requirements: UNC Modification 268 has been raised • Review ongoing at November DESC and report back to November Distribution Workstream • Aim for Implementation by 12th February 2010 • New SNCWV and model back calculating takes place in Jan-Feb 2010 • New WAALPs derived in Feb 2010 • Meter Point backstop dates amended prior to AQ calculation in March 2010 • Revised WAALP data then loaded in March 2010 • SSP AQ calculation takes place end March 2010 (LSP takes place end of April 2010)

  50. Analysis of Impacts of Proposal • Detailed analysis has been undertaken • Impacts cannot be fully assessed as this would require a change to the backstop date in the system and run of the AQ calculation process • Analysis has been undertaken on the following: • Rules within UNC (H3.2) regarding ‘Relevant Metered Period’ (period for AQ calculation) • Comparison of impacts from last backstop date change in 2005 • Review of AQ 2009 calculations • Overview of AQ calculation validation process • Anticipated impact of backstop date change should be small…

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