The Media and The Future

1. The Media and The Future April 30, 2013

2. Opportunities to discuss course content • Today 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2

3. Learning Objectives • Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. Readings • Chapter 3: Partisan Change (72-87) (Flanigan) • On Reserve: McCutcheon, Chuck. The Elections of 2012: Outcomes and Analysis. “Lessons Learned from the 2012 Elections” pp 41-42

5. Horse Racing Today • It Once was the Sport of Kings • The Running of the Urinals

6. Paid Media in 2012

7. Paid Media • Unmediated • Control the Message • More outlets than ever

8. A Record Breaking Year • 1 million ads were aired • Both Sides were overwhelmingly negative • Obama Spent more and Ran More Ads • The Best Ads

9. Herman Cain Bizarre Ads • The Rabbit • Smoking

10. Targeting Ads and their Effect • Uncommitted voters vs Partisans • When are they Most Effective? • Ads are a sign of political viability

11. Candidate Credibility • We have to trust the messenger • Issue Ownership • Try to focus on your best issue

12. Getting More Votes • Delivering a positive message about your candidate (mobilizing) • Deliver a negative message about the opposition (mobilizing/demobilizing)

13. Biographical Ads • Inform us about the Candidate • Very important early in the campaign • Obama doesn’t need to run these….

14. Issue Ads • Focus on a specific issue or a policy area • Associate yourself with favorable policies • Do not mention issue weakness

15. Examples of Issue Ads • The Bear in the Woods in 1984 • Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris... • Hillary Clinton- Attack/Issue Ad

16. Attack Ads • The Norm Rather than the Exception • The Mother of all Attack Ads

17. The Effect of Attack ads on voters • Some voters become disenchanted and disaffected • Your Base Loves them!

18. How Effective are these • If they didn’t work, candidates wouldn’t run them • The Lessons of 1988 • The Revolving Door • Willie Horton

19. Why They Work and Who uses them more • We don’t trust politicians • They are more memorable and informative • Challengers and vulnerable incumbents use them

20. How To Deal with them • Defend the Charges • Counterattack on the same issue or up the ante- The Puppy Ad • Attack the Credibility of your opponent

21. How not to deal with them • Do Nothing • If you get Punched in the nose, you must punch back

22. How the attack can backfire • If you are seen as being too evil

23. Ads Can Backfire • You Do it too Early…. The Lesson from 2012 • You do it too late to make a difference • You bring a knife to a gun fight

24. The New Media • Innovative in 2008 • Candidates had a lot to like • They didn’t like the anarchy

25. Social Media in 2012 • No new Innovations • Obama Retains the social media advantage • More Control • More negative

26. You have No Friends on Social Media

27. Changes for the Future

28. It will Survive The Electoral College

29. Why No Change • To Difficult to Amend the Constitution • The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences

30. The Map Favors the Democrats

31. District Plan • Maine and Nebraska use this system • Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives • Could pass without an amendment

32. National Popular Vote Interstate Compact • Would provide a back door to 538 • Popular after 2000 • Momentum has Slowed • Now largely partisan

33. Why No Change • Institutional Difficulties • More hits than Misses • Unanticipated Consequences

34. What of the Primaries and Conventions

35. The Republicans • Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules • Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules • Will Reevaluate for 2016

36. The Conventions • The late convention is no longer a financial positive • Low Ratings, Low Excitement • 3 Days and earlier Dates

37. Big Money • Outcome • Corporations have stayed quiet • Develop new strategies • Big $ likely to stay

38. Was 2012 part of a realignment?

39. Short Term Deviations • Congressional Elections • Weaker partisan ties • Poor challengers • These can result in a landslide for one party

40. How To Wreck a Party Realignments

41. What is a Realignment • A Durable shift in voting Patterns • The New Party Kills the Old • Majority Parties become minorities

42. Who Switches in a Realignment • Hard Cores do not switch • Independents do • New Voters • Weak partisans become strong Partisans

43. What Causes a Realignment • Economic or social crisis • Failure of the party to interpret change • A changed electorate

44. The Policy Implications • A mandate for change • Major New Policies • Continued electoral success

45. Options for the Losers • Ignore the issue • Try to absorb it • Change

46. Good Times A Theory of critical elections

47. Kinds of Realignments • Secular Realignments- happen over time • Regional Realignments • Critical Elections

48. VICTORY Defeat same Maintaining Deviating Converting Realigning change Types of Election Majority Party

49. A Realigning Election • The Actual Critical Election • 1800 • 1860 • 1896 • 1930 • High Intensity • High Turnout

50. A Maintaining Election • A boring election • The party in power remains in power • 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960