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John Rawlins, [email protected] List of energy references (online, books) http://faculty.whatcom.ctc.edu/jrawlins/phys109/artlist.htm Daily world news – energy, climate change, sustainability http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php Blog on Peak Oil by experts http://www.theoildrum.com

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John rawlins jrawlins whatcom ctc

  • John Rawlins, [email protected]

  • List of energy references (online, books)http://faculty.whatcom.ctc.edu/jrawlins/phys109/artlist.htm

  • Daily world news – energy, climate change, sustainabilityhttp://www.energybulletin.net/news.php

  • Blog on Peak Oil by expertshttp://www.theoildrum.com

  • Blog on Climate Change by expertshttp://realclimate.org/

  • My articles in Whatcom Watch, Sep. 2006 – Aug. 2007http://www.whatcomwatch.org/php/WW_open.php

  • What will we eat as the oil runs out?http://www.energybulletin.net/38091.html


First some lame philosophy

FIRST, SOME LAME PHILOSOPHY

  • "To punish me for my contempt for authority, fate made me an authority myself."--Albert Einstein, physicist.

  • “Understanding and reporting the facts has made me a reporter and wannabe sustainable farmer, not an authority.”--John Rawlins, (retired) physicist.


The elephants in our living rooms

THE ELEPHANTS IN OUR LIVING ROOMS

TWO SIDES OF ONE COIN:

THE FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS

(and humans)


Elephant numero uno peak oil

ELEPHANT NUMERO UNO:PEAK OIL


Lifestyle depends on energy

LIFESTYLE DEPENDS ON ENERGY

AND 85% OF WORLD ENERGY COMES FROM FOSSIL FUELS


A correlation that bodes ill find the yellow curve that s us

A CORRELATION THAT BODES ILL(find the yellow curve – that’s us)

1980

1940

population

1900

1860


A century of growth in the u s based on fossil fuels

A CENTURY OF GROWTH IN THE U.S. BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS

Iranian revolution

37%

Arab-Israeli war

U.S. Oil

Peak

23% EA.

8%

3% EA.


Petroleum products from one barrel of crude oil in california

Petroleum Products from One Barrel of Crude Oil in California

42 gallons + few refinery gain

http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html


No way to manage the bank account withdrawals deposits 3 1 rising

NO WAY TO MANAGE THE BANK ACCOUNT: WITHDRAWALS / DEPOSITS ~ 3:1 & RISING


John rawlins jrawlins whatcom ctc

30 COUNTRIES PRODUCING HALF OF WORLD TOTAL ARE NOW IN DECLINE; ADD SAUDI ARABIA?WITHIN 2 YEARS: RUSSIA

PNW

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


World conventional oil supply now in decline 1 year approaching steeper decline

WORLD CONVENTIONAL OIL SUPPLY NOW IN DECLINE, ~ 1%/YEAR, APPROACHING STEEPER DECLINE

1%/y

(27 Gbbl/y)

3-5%/y

~ 50% in 2030


Other sources maintaining total liquid fuel so far demand exceeds supply from now on

OTHER SOURCES MAINTAINING TOTAL LIQUID FUEL SO FAR; DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY FROM NOW ON

(31.4 Gbbl/y)


Since 2002 30 y increase

SINCE 2002, ~30%/Y INCREASE


Pnw oil myth 1

PNW OIL MYTH #1

  • “CANADIAN OIL SANDS CONTAIN MORE BBL OIL THAN SAUDI ARABIA, ENOUGH TO LAST THE WORLD FOR DECADES”

    • IT IS NOT OIL, IT IS DIRT CONTAMINATED WITH TAR

    • IT HAS HIGH SULFUR CONTENT

    • IT IS A MINING/PROCESSING OPERATION, NOT DRILLING

    • PROCESSING: REQUIRES GOBS OF WATER & NATURAL GAS (IN DECLINE)

      PRODUCTION RATE WILL ALWAYS BE SMALL, 2-3 M BBL/D, AND WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL REFINING STEPS

      (S REMOVAL)

      (& CHINA WANTS IT TOO)


Origin of carter doctrine

ORIGIN OF “CARTER DOCTRINE”

U.S. REQUIRES LARGE MILITARY TO ENSURE ACCESS TO FOREIGN OIL

WHAT’S OUR OIL

DOING

UNDER THEIR SOIL?

IN PERMANENT

DECLINE

2% ETHANOL SLICE USES 20% OF U.S. CORN


John rawlins jrawlins whatcom ctc

NOTE: 80% DECLINE BY 2030!!

80% LESS

BY 2030 ??


So let s just substitute ethanol for gasoline

SO LET’S JUST SUBSTITUTE ETHANOL FOR GASOLINE!

50% ANIMAL FEED

20% ETHANOL

20% EXPORT

10% FOOD PRODUCTS

ETHANOL PRODUCTION ACTS LIKE AN

INFECTION IN FOOD SUPPLY

ALL U.S. CORN CROP ~ 10% OF GASOLINE USE

S. STANIFORD, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2431


Beware of greenspin

BEWARE OF GREENSPIN


World natural gas will peak 2020 2030 then decline sharply

WORLD NATURAL GAS WILL PEAK ~ 2020-2030, THEN DECLINE SHARPLY

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


N american gas in decline set for steep drop

N. AMERICAN GAS IN DECLINE, SET FOR STEEP DROP

PNW: CANADA,

U.S. ROCKIES


World coal production will peak 2020 2030

WORLD COAL PRODUCTION WILL PEAK ~ 2020-2030

CHINA: PEAK ~ 2015

U.S.: PEAK ~ 2002 IN ENERGY; FINAL PEAK ~2025?

OTHERS: AUSTRALIA, INDIA, S. AFRICA, RUSSIA

THESE SIX NATIONS: 80% OF WORLD TOTAL

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


World nuclear is near peak

WORLD NUCLEAR IS NEAR PEAK

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


This is what happens when we build civilization on fossil fuels

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE BUILD CIVILIZATION ON FOSSIL FUELS

PEAK EVERYTHING


What if world population depends on oil except for 1 billion

WHAT IF WORLD POPULATION DEPENDS ON OIL, EXCEPT FOR ~ 1 BILLION?

Source: Paul Chefurka


Fossil fuel a crutch used temporarily to increase pop beyond carrying capacity

FOSSIL FUEL: A CRUTCH USED TEMPORARILY TO INCREASE POP. BEYOND CARRYING CAPACITY


Assume birth rate decline

ASSUME BIRTH RATE DECLINE

Source: Paul Chefurka


Population decline might look like this

POPULATION DECLINE MIGHT LOOK LIKE THIS

Source: Paul Chefurka


Annual excess deaths would look like this peaking 2030

ANNUAL EXCESS DEATHS WOULD LOOK LIKE THIS, PEAKING ~ 2030

NORMAL

WW II

Source: Paul Chefurka


World food production begs for immediate political attention

WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION BEGS FOR IMMEDIATE POLITICAL ATTENTION

**WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION NOW >90% DEPENDENT ON FOSSIL FUEL**************************************************

OPTIONS TO MINIMIZE POPULATION COLLAPSE

-PRIORITIZE OIL & GAS USE TO FOOD PRODUCTION IN NEAR-TERM

-START NOW TO UNLINK FOOD PRODUCTION FROM FOSSIL FUELS (SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION)


So what does sustainable food production entail

SO, WHAT DOES SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION ENTAIL?

  • RESTORE SOIL NUTRIENTS & MICROBES

  • NO FOSSIL FUEL INPUTS

  • LABOR: HUMANS & OXEN

  • COMPOST / RECYCLE ALL WASTE TO MAINTAIN NUTRIENT & MICROBE LEVELS IN SOIL

  • SMALL (FEW ACRE) “FAMILY” FARMS

  • IN CITIES, FOOD NOT LAWNS

  • FOOD GROWING ZONES AROUND CITIES

  • FOOD PRESERVATION IN COLD CLIMATES

  • FOOD PRODUCED WITHIN 10(?) MILES


Two general sustainable food growing methods

TWO GENERAL SUSTAINABLE FOOD GROWING METHODS

  • PERMACULTURE – LEAST EFFORT

    • MODEL: AN EDIBLE FOREST GARDEN

    • FRUIT & NUT TREES

    • BERRY BUSHES

    • PERENNIAL VEGGIES / GROUND-COVER

  • BIO-INTENSIVE GARDENING

    • DOUBLE-DUG, RAISED BEDS

    • ANNUAL VEGGIES

  • BOTH CAN USE COMPANION PLANTING AND APPROPRIATE ANIMALS


This food challenge almost defies imagination

THIS FOOD CHALLENGE ALMOST DEFIES IMAGINATION

  • RICHARD HEINBERG SAYS THE U.S. NEEDS 50 MILLION NEW FARMERS BY 2030 USING SUSTAINABLE METHODS

  • WHATCOM COUNTY WOULD NEED ABOUT 30,000 “SMALL” FARMERS

  • WE NEED TO BE TRAINING ABOUT 1,500 NEW “SMALL” FARMERS PER YEAR, AND

  • GET THEM ONTO SMALL FARMS


The second accelerating elephant

THE SECOND, ACCELERATING ELEPHANT


O o o o ops we ve reached 0 8 deg c since 1800

OOOOOPS, WE’VE REACHED 0.8 DEG CSINCE 1800!!!

(WITH ANOTHER 0.6 DEG C IN THE PIPELINE)

WE MAY HAVE PASSED 2 “TIPPING POINTS”


Observed regional warming consistent with models

OBSERVED REGIONAL WARMING CONSISTENT WITH MODELS


This is what happens when we build civilization on fossil fuels1

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE BUILD CIVILIZATION ON FOSSIL FUELS


Comparing with the un ipcc scenarios

Comparing with the UN IPCC Scenarios

  • Our projection has lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios

  • This is still true even with full coal reserves

  • Jean Laherrere has been pointing out that something is wrong for years

Projection

SOURCE: http://rutledge.caltech.edu/


Simulated carbon dioxide levels

Simulated Carbon-Dioxide Levels

Realistic fossil fuel (solid) 50% Stretch-out (dashed)

  • Simulations from the program MAGICC from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. This program was used in the earlier UN IPCC Assessment Reports.

  • Our projection gives a peak CO2 concentration of 460ppm

SOURCE: http://rutledge.caltech.edu/


Simulated temperature rises

Simulated Temperature Rises

+1.7C

Realistic FF

50% Stretch-out

  • SOURCE:http://rutledge.caltech.edu/

Future coal burning +0.3C

Recovery 800 years


Will fossil fuel decline resolve climate change worries

WILL FOSSIL FUEL DECLINERESOLVE CLIMATE CHANGE WORRIES?

  • 2008 ANSWER: NO, BECAUSE

    • FIRST HALF OF FOSSIL FUELS LED TO~1.5 DEG C AVE. T CHANGE AND DESTABLIZED THE POLAR REGIONS

    • SECOND HALF WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 1.5 DEG C INCREASE, AND ??????????????

    • EVEN 1.5 DEG C EXCEEDS THRESHHOLD FOR DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE OF 0.5 DEG C


Conclusions

CONCLUSIONS

  • FOSSIL FUEL DECLINE WILL PRESENT UNPRECEDENTED HARDSHIP, RISK, & DOWNSCALED LIFESTYLES, ~~ NOW

  • DITTO FOR MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE; TOO LATE TO AVOID DANGEROUS AGW (BUT WHEN?)

  • WHILE ADJUSTING TO ENERGY DECLINE, WATCH YOUR BACKSIDE FOR CLIMATE SURPRISES


My list of tttad

MY LIST OF TTTAD

DONE OR STARTED

  • EXPERIMENT WITH PERMACULTURE, BIO-INTENSIVE FOOD GROWING

  • ELECTRIC VEHICLES, BIKE, TRANSIT

  • HOME HEAT VIA WOOD

  • COMMUNITY PRESENTATIONS & AGITATION

    FUTURE

  • SOLAR PANELS, SOLAR HEAT, WIND

  • COMPOSTING TOILET SYSTEM

  • ROOFTOP WATER COLLECTION

  • ANIMALS FOR FOOD & FIBER & DAIRY

  • RESIST MOVING TO PORTLAND AREA


Agitate for city county to develop adopt a peak oil plan

AGITATE FOR CITY/COUNTY TO DEVELOP & ADOPT A PEAK OIL PLAN

PORTLAND HAS A PEAK OIL PLAN, APRIL 2007


And madeleine lives in portland

AND, MADELEINE LIVES IN PORTLAND


The end of this presentation

THE END(OF THIS PRESENTATION)

YOU LIVE IN

INTERESTING TIMES


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