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John Rawlins, jrawlins@whatcom.ctc.edu List of energy references (online, books) http://faculty.whatcom.ctc.edu/jrawlins/phys109/artlist.htm Daily world news – energy, climate change, sustainability http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php Blog on Peak Oil by experts http://www.theoildrum.com

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  • John Rawlins, jrawlins@whatcom.ctc.edu

  • List of energy references (online, books)http://faculty.whatcom.ctc.edu/jrawlins/phys109/artlist.htm

  • Daily world news – energy, climate change, sustainabilityhttp://www.energybulletin.net/news.php

  • Blog on Peak Oil by expertshttp://www.theoildrum.com

  • Blog on Climate Change by expertshttp://realclimate.org/

  • My articles in Whatcom Watch, Sep. 2006 – Aug. 2007http://www.whatcomwatch.org/php/WW_open.php

  • What will we eat as the oil runs out?http://www.energybulletin.net/38091.html


FIRST, SOME LAME PHILOSOPHY

  • "To punish me for my contempt for authority, fate made me an authority myself."--Albert Einstein, physicist.

  • “Understanding and reporting the facts has made me a reporter and wannabe sustainable farmer, not an authority.”--John Rawlins, (retired) physicist.


THE ELEPHANTS IN OUR LIVING ROOMS

TWO SIDES OF ONE COIN:

THE FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS

(and humans)


ELEPHANT NUMERO UNO:PEAK OIL


LIFESTYLE DEPENDS ON ENERGY

AND 85% OF WORLD ENERGY COMES FROM FOSSIL FUELS


A CORRELATION THAT BODES ILL(find the yellow curve – that’s us)

1980

1940

population

1900

1860


A CENTURY OF GROWTH IN THE U.S. BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS

Iranian revolution

37%

Arab-Israeli war

U.S. Oil

Peak

23% EA.

8%

3% EA.


Petroleum Products from One Barrel of Crude Oil in California

42 gallons + few refinery gain

http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html


NO WAY TO MANAGE THE BANK ACCOUNT: WITHDRAWALS / DEPOSITS ~ 3:1 & RISING


30 COUNTRIES PRODUCING HALF OF WORLD TOTAL ARE NOW IN DECLINE; ADD SAUDI ARABIA?WITHIN 2 YEARS: RUSSIA

PNW

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


WORLD CONVENTIONAL OIL SUPPLY NOW IN DECLINE, ~ 1%/YEAR, APPROACHING STEEPER DECLINE

1%/y

(27 Gbbl/y)

3-5%/y

~ 50% in 2030


OTHER SOURCES MAINTAINING TOTAL LIQUID FUEL SO FAR; DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY FROM NOW ON

(31.4 Gbbl/y)


SINCE 2002, ~30%/Y INCREASE


PNW OIL MYTH #1

  • “CANADIAN OIL SANDS CONTAIN MORE BBL OIL THAN SAUDI ARABIA, ENOUGH TO LAST THE WORLD FOR DECADES”

    • IT IS NOT OIL, IT IS DIRT CONTAMINATED WITH TAR

    • IT HAS HIGH SULFUR CONTENT

    • IT IS A MINING/PROCESSING OPERATION, NOT DRILLING

    • PROCESSING: REQUIRES GOBS OF WATER & NATURAL GAS (IN DECLINE)

      PRODUCTION RATE WILL ALWAYS BE SMALL, 2-3 M BBL/D, AND WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL REFINING STEPS

      (S REMOVAL)

      (& CHINA WANTS IT TOO)


ORIGIN OF “CARTER DOCTRINE”

U.S. REQUIRES LARGE MILITARY TO ENSURE ACCESS TO FOREIGN OIL

WHAT’S OUR OIL

DOING

UNDER THEIR SOIL?

IN PERMANENT

DECLINE

2% ETHANOL SLICE USES 20% OF U.S. CORN


NOTE: 80% DECLINE BY 2030!!

80% LESS

BY 2030 ??


SO LET’S JUST SUBSTITUTE ETHANOL FOR GASOLINE!

50% ANIMAL FEED

20% ETHANOL

20% EXPORT

10% FOOD PRODUCTS

ETHANOL PRODUCTION ACTS LIKE AN

INFECTION IN FOOD SUPPLY

ALL U.S. CORN CROP ~ 10% OF GASOLINE USE

S. STANIFORD, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2431


BEWARE OF GREENSPIN


WORLD NATURAL GAS WILL PEAK ~ 2020-2030, THEN DECLINE SHARPLY

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


N. AMERICAN GAS IN DECLINE, SET FOR STEEP DROP

PNW: CANADA,

U.S. ROCKIES


WORLD COAL PRODUCTION WILL PEAK ~ 2020-2030

CHINA: PEAK ~ 2015

U.S.: PEAK ~ 2002 IN ENERGY; FINAL PEAK ~2025?

OTHERS: AUSTRALIA, INDIA, S. AFRICA, RUSSIA

THESE SIX NATIONS: 80% OF WORLD TOTAL

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


WORLD NUCLEAR IS NEAR PEAK

http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf


THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE BUILD CIVILIZATION ON FOSSIL FUELS

PEAK EVERYTHING


WHAT IF WORLD POPULATION DEPENDS ON OIL, EXCEPT FOR ~ 1 BILLION?

Source: Paul Chefurka


FOSSIL FUEL: A CRUTCH USED TEMPORARILY TO INCREASE POP. BEYOND CARRYING CAPACITY


ASSUME BIRTH RATE DECLINE

Source: Paul Chefurka


POPULATION DECLINE MIGHT LOOK LIKE THIS

Source: Paul Chefurka


ANNUAL EXCESS DEATHS WOULD LOOK LIKE THIS, PEAKING ~ 2030

NORMAL

WW II

Source: Paul Chefurka


WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION BEGS FOR IMMEDIATE POLITICAL ATTENTION

**WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION NOW >90% DEPENDENT ON FOSSIL FUEL**************************************************

OPTIONS TO MINIMIZE POPULATION COLLAPSE

-PRIORITIZE OIL & GAS USE TO FOOD PRODUCTION IN NEAR-TERM

-START NOW TO UNLINK FOOD PRODUCTION FROM FOSSIL FUELS (SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION)


SO, WHAT DOES SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION ENTAIL?

  • RESTORE SOIL NUTRIENTS & MICROBES

  • NO FOSSIL FUEL INPUTS

  • LABOR: HUMANS & OXEN

  • COMPOST / RECYCLE ALL WASTE TO MAINTAIN NUTRIENT & MICROBE LEVELS IN SOIL

  • SMALL (FEW ACRE) “FAMILY” FARMS

  • IN CITIES, FOOD NOT LAWNS

  • FOOD GROWING ZONES AROUND CITIES

  • FOOD PRESERVATION IN COLD CLIMATES

  • FOOD PRODUCED WITHIN 10(?) MILES


TWO GENERAL SUSTAINABLE FOOD GROWING METHODS

  • PERMACULTURE – LEAST EFFORT

    • MODEL: AN EDIBLE FOREST GARDEN

    • FRUIT & NUT TREES

    • BERRY BUSHES

    • PERENNIAL VEGGIES / GROUND-COVER

  • BIO-INTENSIVE GARDENING

    • DOUBLE-DUG, RAISED BEDS

    • ANNUAL VEGGIES

  • BOTH CAN USE COMPANION PLANTING AND APPROPRIATE ANIMALS


THIS FOOD CHALLENGE ALMOST DEFIES IMAGINATION

  • RICHARD HEINBERG SAYS THE U.S. NEEDS 50 MILLION NEW FARMERS BY 2030 USING SUSTAINABLE METHODS

  • WHATCOM COUNTY WOULD NEED ABOUT 30,000 “SMALL” FARMERS

  • WE NEED TO BE TRAINING ABOUT 1,500 NEW “SMALL” FARMERS PER YEAR, AND

  • GET THEM ONTO SMALL FARMS


THE SECOND, ACCELERATING ELEPHANT


OOOOOPS, WE’VE REACHED 0.8 DEG CSINCE 1800!!!

(WITH ANOTHER 0.6 DEG C IN THE PIPELINE)

WE MAY HAVE PASSED 2 “TIPPING POINTS”


OBSERVED REGIONAL WARMING CONSISTENT WITH MODELS


THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE BUILD CIVILIZATION ON FOSSIL FUELS


Comparing with the UN IPCC Scenarios

  • Our projection has lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios

  • This is still true even with full coal reserves

  • Jean Laherrere has been pointing out that something is wrong for years

Projection

SOURCE: http://rutledge.caltech.edu/


Simulated Carbon-Dioxide Levels

Realistic fossil fuel (solid) 50% Stretch-out (dashed)

  • Simulations from the program MAGICC from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. This program was used in the earlier UN IPCC Assessment Reports.

  • Our projection gives a peak CO2 concentration of 460ppm

SOURCE: http://rutledge.caltech.edu/


Simulated Temperature Rises

+1.7C

Realistic FF

50% Stretch-out

  • SOURCE:http://rutledge.caltech.edu/

Future coal burning +0.3C

Recovery 800 years


WILL FOSSIL FUEL DECLINERESOLVE CLIMATE CHANGE WORRIES?

  • 2008 ANSWER: NO, BECAUSE

    • FIRST HALF OF FOSSIL FUELS LED TO~1.5 DEG C AVE. T CHANGE AND DESTABLIZED THE POLAR REGIONS

    • SECOND HALF WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 1.5 DEG C INCREASE, AND ??????????????

    • EVEN 1.5 DEG C EXCEEDS THRESHHOLD FOR DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE OF 0.5 DEG C


CONCLUSIONS

  • FOSSIL FUEL DECLINE WILL PRESENT UNPRECEDENTED HARDSHIP, RISK, & DOWNSCALED LIFESTYLES, ~~ NOW

  • DITTO FOR MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE; TOO LATE TO AVOID DANGEROUS AGW (BUT WHEN?)

  • WHILE ADJUSTING TO ENERGY DECLINE, WATCH YOUR BACKSIDE FOR CLIMATE SURPRISES


MY LIST OF TTTAD

DONE OR STARTED

  • EXPERIMENT WITH PERMACULTURE, BIO-INTENSIVE FOOD GROWING

  • ELECTRIC VEHICLES, BIKE, TRANSIT

  • HOME HEAT VIA WOOD

  • COMMUNITY PRESENTATIONS & AGITATION

    FUTURE

  • SOLAR PANELS, SOLAR HEAT, WIND

  • COMPOSTING TOILET SYSTEM

  • ROOFTOP WATER COLLECTION

  • ANIMALS FOR FOOD & FIBER & DAIRY

  • RESIST MOVING TO PORTLAND AREA


AGITATE FOR CITY/COUNTY TO DEVELOP & ADOPT A PEAK OIL PLAN

PORTLAND HAS A PEAK OIL PLAN, APRIL 2007


AND, MADELEINE LIVES IN PORTLAND


THE END(OF THIS PRESENTATION)

YOU LIVE IN

INTERESTING TIMES


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