Public Opinion Chapter 9 part 2

1. Public Opinion Chapter 9 part 2 Mr. Westerfeld 9/22-23

2. Bellwork Obama maintains his lead in CNN's national poll of polls. According to the latest poll of polls, released Friday, Obama is ahead of McCain by three percentage points -- 47-44. The poll of polls consists of three surveys: Gallup (September 16-18), Diageo/Hotline (September 16-18), and Big Ten Battleground (September 14-17). With recent polls showing about 10 percent of voters still undecided, the debates could prove critical in deciding the election, according to Paul Steinhauser, CNN's deputy political editor. "These debates ... they could be crucial in these undecided Americans making up their minds. And those undecided Americans are the ones who are basically going to sway the election and move it one way or the other," he said.

3. Political Knowledge • 25% of Americans polled could name their two senators • Political ignorance is a fact of political life given the high cost of political attentiveness. • Reading, thinking, participation, social friction, and pessimism can all be costs of political knowledge • You can always be a free rider • Someone will make the decision • Shortcuts • The trusted other, believe what someone you usually agree with believes (the opposite is also true) • Party affiliation or ideology

4. Why that isn’t so good in a Democracy • Issues are often too complex to lend themselves to simple ideological interpretation. • Shortcut takers can become victims in political struggles because they cannot effectively defend their political interests • Large numbers of politically inattentive people means that the political process can be more easily manipulated by the forces that seek to shape public opinion.

5. Shaping Opinion • Government • Presidents and the Executive branch use polls, focus groups, planted news stories, and film to try to persuade the public with propaganda. • Perscription drug commercials • Armstrong Williams $240,000 taxpayer funds

6. Shaping Opinion • Private Groups • Special interests groups may try to shape opinion because of values or personal interest. • Partial Birth Abortion Ban • Cheap Handgun Ban • Sweatshop campaign

7. Shaping Opinion • The Media • Can be outlets for the other two • Do the scandals that the media uncovers impact your view of politicians and politics? • Dan Rather’s retirement

8. Measuring Public Opinion • Random digit dialing- a poll in which respondents are selected at random from a list of ten digit telephone numbers, with every effort made to avoid bias in the construction of the sample • Selection bias-a polling error in which the sample is not representative of the population being studied, so that some opinions are over- or underrepresented. • Sampling error- a polling error that arises on account of the small size of the sample

9. Measuring Public Opinion • Public Opinion Polls- the scientific instruments for measuring public opinion • Sample-a small group selected by researchers to represent the most important characteristics of an entire population • Probability sampling- a method used by pollsters to select a representative sample in which every individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected as a respondent

10. Measuring Public Opinion • Measurement error-the failure to identify the true distribution of opinion within a population because of errors such as ambiguous or poorly worded questions • Push Polling-A polling technique in which the questions are designed to shape a respondent’s opinion • Salient Interests-attitudes and views that are especially important to the individual holding them • Illusion of Salience-The impression conveyed by polls that something is important to the public when it actually is not.

11. Measuring Public Opinion • Bandwagon effect-a shift in electoral support to the candidate whom public opinion polls report as the front runner. • Rally round the flag effect- a shift in electoral support to the status quo during a time of war or crisis.

12. How does this influence policy? • Individual doorstep opinions vs. aggregate public opinion • Between 1935 and 1979 about 2/3 of all cases significant changes in public opinion were followed within one year by policy changes • Why doesn’t policy always follow opinion • The majority may not be intensely committed as the minority • Structure of the government creates a lag time (ex: supreme court rulings)