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Systems Engineering Cost Estimation Systems Engineering Day, São José dos Campos, Brazil. Dr. Ricardo Valerdi Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 6, 2011 [[email protected]]. Theory is when you know everything, but nothing works.

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Systems Engineering Cost Estimation

Systems Engineering Day, São José dos Campos, Brazil

Dr. Ricardo Valerdi

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

June 6, 2011

[[email protected]]


Theory is when you know everything, but nothing works.

Practice is when everything works, but no one knows why.

Harvard is where theory and practice come together...

Nothing works and no one knows why.

- on the door of a laboratory at Harvard


The delphic sybil michelangelo buonarroti capella sistina il vaticano 1508 1512

The Delphic Sybil

Michelangelo Buonarroti

Capella Sistina, Il Vaticano (1508-1512)


Cost Commitment on Projects

Blanchard, B., Fabrycky, W., Systems Engineering & Analysis, Prentice Hall, 1998.


Cone of Uncertainty

4x

2x

Relative Size Range

x

0.5x

Initial Operating Capability

OperationalConcept

Life Cycle Objectives

Life Cycle Architecture

0.25x

Feasibility

Plans/Rqts.

Design

Develop and Test

Phases and Milestones

Boehm, B. W., Software Engineering Economics, Prentice Hall, 1981.


How is systems engineering defined
How is Systems Engineering Defined?

  • Product Realization

    • Implementation Process

    • Transition to Use Process

  • Technical Evaluation

    • Systems Analysis Process

    • Requirements Validation Process

    • System Verification Process

    • End Products Validation Process

  • Acquisition and Supply

    • Supply Process

    • Acquisition Process

  • Technical Management

    • Planning Process

    • Assessment Process

    • Control Process

  • System Design

    • Requirements Definition Process

    • Solution Definition Process

EIA/ANSI 632, Processes for Engineering a System, 1999.



COSYSMO Scope

  • Addresses first four phases of the system engineering lifecycle (per ISO/IEC 15288)

  • Considers standard Systems Engineering Work Breakdown Structure tasks (per EIA/ANSI 632)

Conceptualize

Operate, Maintain,

or

Enhance

Replace

or

Dismantle

Transition

to

Operation

Oper Test

& Eval

Develop


COSYSMO Operational Concept

# Requirements

# Interfaces

# Scenarios

# Algorithms

+

3 Adj. Factors

Size

Drivers

COSYSMO

Effort

Effort

Multipliers

  • Application factors

    • 8 factors

  • Team factors

    • 6 factors

Calibration


Cosysmo model form
COSYSMO Model Form

Where:

PMNS = effort in Person Months (Nominal Schedule)

A = calibration constant derived from historical project data

k = {REQ, IF, ALG, SCN}

wx = weight for “easy”, “nominal”, or “difficult” size driver

= quantity of “k” size driver

E = represents diseconomies of scale

EM = effort multiplier for the jth cost driver. The geometric product results in an overall effort adjustment factor to the nominal effort.


Cost driver clusters

UNDERSTANDING FACTORS

Requirements understanding

Architecture understanding

Stakeholder team cohesion

Personnel experience/continuity

COMPLEXITY FACTORS

Level of service requirements

Technology Risk

# of Recursive Levels in the Design

Documentation Match to Life Cycle Needs

OPERATIONS FACTORS

# and Diversity of Installations/Platforms

Migration complexity

Cost Driver Clusters

  • PEOPLE FACTORS

  • Personnel/team capability

  • Process capability

  • ENVIRONMENT FACTORS

  • Multisite coordination

  • Tool support


Stakeholder team cohesion

Represents a multi-attribute parameter which includes leadership, shared vision, diversity of stakeholders, approval cycles, group dynamics, IPT framework, team dynamics, trust, and amount of change in responsibilities. It further represents the heterogeneity in stakeholder community of the end users, customers, implementers, and development team.


Technology Risk

The maturity, readiness, and obsolescence of the technology being implemented. Immature or obsolescent technology will require more Systems Engineering effort.


Migration complexity

This cost driver rates the extent to which the legacy system affects the migration complexity, if any. Legacy system components, databases, workflows, environments, etc., may affect the new system implementation due to new technology introductions, planned upgrades, increased performance, business process reengineering, etc.




Effort profiling
Effort Profiling

Transition to

Operation

Operational

Test &

Evaluation

Conceptualize

Develop

ISO/IEC 15288

ANSI/EIA 632

Acquisition & Supply

Technical Management

System Design

Product Realization

Technical Evaluation




Prediction accuracy
Prediction Accuracy

PRED(30)

PRED(25)

PRED(20)

PRED(30) = 100% PRED(25) = 57%


Impact

10 theses

Academic Curricula

Model

Academic

prototype

Commercial Implementations

Intelligence Community

Sheppard Mullin, LLC

Policy & Contracts

Proprietary Implementations

SEEMaP

COSYSMO-R

SECOST


Contact
Contact

Ricardo Valerdi

MIT

[email protected]

(617) 253-8583

http://rvalerdi.mit.edu


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