Research challenges for addressing climate change
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 33

Research Challenges for Addressing Climate Change PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 113 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Research Challenges for Addressing Climate Change. Prof Ogunlade R Davidson Co-Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III Capacity Building in the South for Transitions to Sustainable Energy Systems: From Rural Energy to Carbon Credits

Download Presentation

Research Challenges for Addressing Climate Change

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Research Challenges for Addressing Climate Change

Prof Ogunlade R Davidson

Co-Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III

Capacity Building in the South for Transitions to Sustainable Energy Systems: From Rural Energy to Carbon Credits

Capacity building in the Energy sector in Developing Countries (ICREP), University of Twente

Twente, Netherlands

10, April, 2008


Contents of lecture

Contents of Lecture

  • Climate Change Problem

  • AR4 Findings

    • WGI Findings

    • WGII Findings

    • WGIII Findings

  • Climate Change Research Challenges

    • Research in Climate Change Science

    • Research in Vulnerability and Adaptation

    • Research in Mitigation

  • Research in Cross-cutting Issues

    • Scenario development and modeling

    • Adaptation and Mitigation

  • Conclusions


Research challenges for addressing climate change

The Climate Change is more a developmental than environmental Problem

  • Carbon dioxide and other GHGs from fossil fuel combustion started in 1800s and has continued

  • Concentration of GHGs causing warming of the earth

  • Major actions needed to reduce carbon emissions, hence low carbon society


Research challenges for addressing climate change

The Evolution of Ideas within the IPCC

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

IPCC Third Assessment Report

IPCC Second Assessment Report

IPCC First Assessment Report

Climate +Impacts

Efficiency

Equity

Climate +Impacts

Efficiency

Climate +Impacts

Climate +Impacts

Sustainability

+Development

Efficiency

Equity

(Efficiency)

(Equity)

(Sustainability

+Development)

(Sustainable

Development)

Continuing Focus

New Focus

Emerging Focus


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Participants of AR4

+2500 scientific expert reviewers

800 contributing authors

450 lead authors

+130 countries


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Observations: All major GHG concentrations has increased since Pre-industrial

CO2 grew from 280 ppm in 1750 to 379 ppm in 2005

Methane grew from 715 ppb in 1750 to 1774 ppb 2005

N20 grew from

270 ppb in

1750 to 319

ppb in 2005


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Scientific Observation

Global average temperature

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

Global average sea level

Northern hemisphere

snow cover


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Climate change is human induced

Consistent pattern of warming over land, oceans and over each continent (except Antarctica)


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Observed impacts


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Increasing sea level rise

  • Rate of global average sea level rise has risen from 1.8mm/yr from 1960-2003 to 3.1mm/yr from 1993-2003

  • Total sea level rise in 20th century was 17 cm

  • Contributions from thermal expansion (57%), melting glaciers & ice caps and polar ice sheets

  • Projected sea level rise of 18-59 cm by the end of the 21st century

  • No upper bound, risk of additional contributions from Greenland and Antarctica may be larger


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Impacts by sector


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Impacts by region


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Systems and sectors likely to be especially affected

Particular ecosystems: tundra, boreal forest, mountain regions, Mediterranean-type ecosystems, tropical rainforests; mangroves and salt marshes; coral reefs; the sea ice biome

Water resources in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, due to changes in rainfall and evapo-transpiration, and in areas dependent on snow and ice melt

Agriculture in low-latitudes, due to reduced water availability

Low-lying coastal systems, due to threat of sea level rise and increased risk from extreme weather events

Human health in populations with low adaptive capacity


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Regions likely to be especially affected

The Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of warming on natural systems and human communities

Africa, because of low adaptive capacity and projected climate change impacts

Small islands, which are highly vulnerable to projected sea level rise

Asian and African megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea level rise, storm surges and river flooding


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Projected impacts

  • Many species atincreasing risk of extinction

  • Decreased crop productivity and hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress

  • Sea-level rise expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards

  • Health-related problems affecting millions of people


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Mitigation is possible, but should start soon

*Through deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are either currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades

  • Assumingappropriate and effective incentives are in place for development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion and addressing related barriers

  • But there are inertia in the system

    • Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentration were held constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming would occur in the next two decades at a rate of 0.1deg C per decade

    • Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions lead to investments that lock in more emission intensive infrastructure and development pathways


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Mitigation targets

Under most equity interpretations and for low to medium stabilization targets (450-550ppm CO2-eq), developed countries need to significantly reduce their emissions below 1990 levels:

  • 10-40% by 2020

  • 40-95% by 2050

Developing country emissions need to deviate below their projected baseline within the next few decades


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor and is still rising


Projected ghg and mitigation potential

Projected GHG and Mitigation Potential

  • Current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices (SRES), could increase between 25-90% between 2000 and 2030

  • Mitigation potential based on both bottom-up and top-down studies could offset the expected GHG emissions growth

  • All sectors could contribute though their potential differ in quantity and sectors

Estimates do not include non-technical options such lifestyle changes


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Key technologies currently available

Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bio-energy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage

Energy

Supply

More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; bio-fuels;

modal shifts from road transport to rail and public

transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Transport

Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and air-condition;

improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling;

alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and

appliances

Buildings


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Stabilisation scenarios


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Stabilisation scenarios


Lower stabilisation level require global emissions to go down early

Lower stabilisation level require global emissions to go down early

  • Lower stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) require major policies and government support:

    • RD&D efforts

    • Investments in new technologies

    • Tax credits

    • Standard setting

    • Technology development and transfer

    • Market creation

  • An effective carbon-price signal could realize significant mitigation potential


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Key policies and measures

  • Financial incentives to stimulate technology development

  • Effective carbon price signal

  • Regulationsandstandards

  • Changes inlifestyleandbehavior


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Climate Policy alone will not solve the climate change problem

  • Macro-economic policy:taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies, structural adjustment

  • Trade policy: “embodied carbon”, removing barriers for low-carbon products, domestic energy sources

  • Energy security policy : efficient energy use, domestic energy sources (low-high carbon)

  • Access to modern energy:bio-energy, poverty tariffs

  • Air quality policy:clean fuel

  • Bank lending policies: lending for efficiency/ renewable energy, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing countries

  • Insurance policy:Differentiated premiums, liability insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green products


Research in climate change science

Research in Climate Change Science

  • Climate data on observed changes in natural and managed systems, especially in developing countries

  • Analysing and monitoring changes in extreme events, including drought, tropical cyclones, extreme temperatures, frequency and intensity of precipitation

  • Effects of climate change on human and some natural systems

  • Attribution of observed changes to natural and human causes

  • Carbon dioxide emissions from land-use change and methane emissions from individual sources


Research in climate change vulnerability

Research in Climate Change Vulnerability

  • Impacts of climate change in the context of multiple stresses such as globalisation, poverty, and low–lying coastal areas.

  • Identify characteristics that reduce vulnerability

  • Identify characteristics that strengthens adaptive capacity

  • Identify characteristics that predispose physical, biological, and human systems to irreversible changes as a result of climate stresses

  • Identify the likely thresholds for natural ecosystems and possible feedbacks


Research on adaptation to climate change

Research on Adaptation to Climate Change

  • Explore the inter-linkages between adaptive capacity and sustainable development

  • Identify factors which contribute to these linkages

  • Policies that will enhance adaptive capacity

  • Develop strategies for climate proofing

  • The costs of climate change impacts and adaptation

  • Optimal strategies for implementing adaptation policies


Research areas in climate change mitigation i

Research Areas in Climate Change Mitigation (I)

  • Collection of sectoral data on emissions and specific processes for mitigation, especially on non-CO2 GHGs, black carbon and CO2 from various sources such as deforestation, decay of biomass and peat fires

  • Identify the inter-linkages between mitigation and sustainable development

  • Identify inter-linkages between mitigation and local/national policies (energy security, water, health, air pollution, forestry, agriculture)

  • Human dimensions and institutional arrangements in the mitigation of climate change

  • Lifestyle changes and climate change mitigation


Research areas in climate change mitigation ii

Research Areas in Climate Change Mitigation (II)

  • Development of politically feasible and economically attractive mitigation policies

  • Alternative development paths that promote development but also climate protection

  • Identify macro-indicators for sustainable development

  • Development of adequate methods to analyse costs and potentials of mitigation that cover all sectors, GHGs and regions/countries

  • The effect of domestic or sectoral mitigations on other countries or sectors (spillover effects)

  • Development and deployment of low carbon technologies and cleaner technologies

  • Improved understanding of how technology adoption of climate mitigation technologies

  • Relation between climate and non-climate policies and market mechanisms (investments, change in consumer preferences)

  • Human behavour and technology evolution


Cross cutting issues in climate change

Cross-cutting Issues in Climate Change

  • Linkages between adaptation and mitigation

  • Scenario development and modelling: issues to be considered are:

    • Representative concentration pathways

    • Future evolution of the world under different and wide-ranging assumptions about how societies, technology , economies will develop in future

    • Regional and local scales appropriate for adaptation analysis

    • Allow adaptation to be incorporated into climate change impacts

    • Abrupt climate impacts and extreme events

    • Different socio-economic pathways


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Fitting in together in the long term

  • Global warming is equivocal and early action by all and governments are needed to reduce serious climate risks

  • Large number of technologies are available now and in the near future to offset the GHG emissions

  • Linking sustainable development with climate policies provide governments the opportunity to avert the possible climate threats

  • An effective climate change strategy will require the integration of development, equity and sustainability

  • Climate change could worsen the gap in distributional goods and services between and within generations as the poor and dis-advantaged will be the most affected

  • Significant R&D in climate change and related areas are needed


Research challenges for addressing climate change

Thank you for your attention

Further Information

Contact

University of Sierra Leone

Freetown, Sierra Leone.

Tel. No. 232-22-223340

Fax. No 232-22-223270

Email: [email protected]


  • Login