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Growing Up in Ireland Conference The Value of Child Cohort Studies – Historical and International Perspectives. Professor John Bynner, Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, London 7 th December 2009, Dublin. Contents. Why longitudinal research

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Growing Up in Ireland ConferenceThe Value of Child Cohort Studies – Historical and International Perspectives

Professor John Bynner, Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, London

7th December 2009, Dublin


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Contents

  • Why longitudinal research

  • Longitudinal studies: time and place

  • The studies

  • Context of social change

  • Changing life course process

  • Trajectories of disadvantage and policy challenge


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Value of longitudinal data

  • Predicting consequences of early experience and circumstances – e.g. childhood disadvantage

  • Explaining outcomes – e.g. Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET)

  • Estimating returns – e.g. to qualifications

  • Identifying factors that override predictions – e.g. “escape from disadvantage”

  • Life course dynamics – e.g. interactions between literacy proficiency, ICT competence, employment, family, health

Bynner et al 2009 Use of Longitudinal Research in the evaluation of the Scottish Government’s Strategic Outcomes http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2008/11/25160140/0

Bynner, J. & Joshi, H. (2007) ‘Building the Evidence Base from Longitudinal Data’. Innovation, 20, 159-179


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e.g.2000

e.g. 2010


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Types of longitudinal cohort study

  • Birth cohort studies: 1946, 1958, 1970, 1992 Avon Longitudinal Survey of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), 2000 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)

    2005 Growing Up in Scotland (GUS), 2008 Growing Up In Ireland (GUI), 2010 French Birth cohort study (ELFE), 2012 German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS contains one birth cohort out of multiple age cohorts),  2009 US National Children’s Study (NCS)

  • Age cohort studies: 2004Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), 2005 Growing Up in Scotland (GUS), 2008 Growing Up in Ireland (GUI), 2012 German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS)

  • Sequential cohort studies: UK Youth Cohort Study (YCS), Scottish School Leavers Survey (SLS), 2012 German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS)

Martin, J. Bynner, J. Kalton, G. Boyle, P. Goldstein, H. Gayle, V. Parsons, S. Piesse (2006), A. Review of Panel and Cohort Studies. Bynner, J. Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Purdon, S. Michael, R. (2007), Scientific Case for a New Birth Cohort Study. Bynner, J. Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Lessof, C. Michael, R. (2009) Options for the design of the 2012 birth cohort study.www.Longviewuk.com /pages/reportsnew.shtml


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British Birth Cohort Studies

60

55

54 Year NSHD

50

NSHD

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010


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British Birth Cohort StudiesNational Child Development Study (NCDS)

60

55

50 Year NCDS

50

45

42 Year NCDS

NCDS

40

37 Year NCDS

35

33 Year NCDS

30

25

23 Year NCDS

20

16 years NCDS

15

11 Year NCDS

10

7 Year NCDS

Child

Data

5

0

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010


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British Birth Cohort Studies1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)

60

55

50

45

40

38 Years BCS70

35

BCS70

30 Years BCS70

30

26 Years BCS70

25

21 Years BCS70S (sub sample)

20

16 Year BCS70

15

10 Years BCS70

10

5 Years BCS70

5

42 Months BCS70

22 Months BCS70

0

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010


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British Birth Cohort StudiesMillennium Cohort Study MCS)

Age

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

11 years

10

7 years

MCS

5 years

5

3 years

9 months

0

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010


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The British Birth Cohort studies

Age

60

55

NSHD 1946 (n = 5,000)

50

45

NCDS 1958 (n = 17,000)

40

BCS70 1970 (n = 17,000)

35

30

25

ALSPAC 1992 (n = 15,000)

20

15

MCS 2000 (n = 19,000)

10

NCS 2012 (n= 30,000)

Child

Data

Child

Data

5

0

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

NCS= New cohort study

.


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Theoretical perspective

Distal and Proximal ecological factors in child development (Bronfenbrenner)

  • Interactional contexts – e.g. the family

  • Structural factors - e.g. social class, locality

    Life course trajectories (Elder, Heinz) shaped by :

  • Human agency – development of the individual

  • Linked-lives – social relations

  • Timing – age, period, cohort

  • Location in time and space – history and culture


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Housing space – people per room

%

Birth cohort


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Parents/carers with degrees

%

Birth cohort


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Experienced temporary suspension from school by family social class

professional

%

unskilled

Ferri, E. , Bynner, J. and Wadsworth . M. (2003) Changing Britain Changing Lives . IoE press

Birth cohort


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Modeling the routes to adult statuses

Early resource accumulationTransition resourcesAdult statuses

Family backgroundEarly influencesLeaving choicesEmployment/Family

(Birth)(Age 10/11)(Age 16+)Age 26

Rural vs urban area


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Structural equation model of education pathways to unemployment


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1958 cohort boys: impact of family background


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1970 cohort boys: impact of family background


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1958 cohort boys: influences on school leaving exam scores


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1970 cohort boys: influences on school leaving exam scores


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1958 cohort boys: influences on unemployment


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1970 cohort boys: influences on unemployment


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Trajectoryof disadvantage


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Conclusions

  • Collection and use of longitudinal data in accordance with the life course perspective is increasingly recognized as a key tool for science and policy - hence the widening investment in longitudinal research resources across the world.

  • Such multi-disciplinary enquiry enables identification of the key features of changing social, economic, political and environmental contexts impacting on child development and to chart their long term effects.

  • GUI’s potential value will be enhanced by the growing comparative opportunities for identifying the key formative influences on development to which policy can be directed across the life course in Ireland.


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