By: Yasmine Fouad Marwa Mahgoub

1. Faculty of Economics and Political Science Cairo UniversityEuro med PHD Program2010/2011 FROM HEADWATERS TRIBUTARIES TO INTERNATIONAL RIVER: observing adapting to climate change variability and change in Nile basin By: Yasmine Fouad Marwa Mahgoub

2. Outline of the presentation Objective and scope of the study International level: Nile as a source of the study of variability Contextualizing climate change including future analogues case studies Ethiopia Egypt NBI and climate adaptation conclusion

3. Water Wars? "if the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water -- unless we change our approach to managing this precious and vital resource". Ismail Serageldin whilst World Bank Vice President, August 1995 “The main conflicts in Africa during the next 25 years could be over that most precious of commodities - water, as countries fight for access to scarce resources” BBC News online, reporting on a UNDP report, 15 November 1999

4. Objective of the Study Selection of the Nile basin are explored in terms of adaptation to climate variability and change at the international and national levels. International level: the international context of water management and allocation in the Nile basin. National level:Egypt’s position as a down stream riparian and being water scarce. Required adaptive actions( who is involved, magnitude and level)

5. International level

6. Nile as a source of variability Literature review of the qualitative and quantitative studies of climate change and their main results ( 1994-2003) include : Different Models of climate change to investigate the sensitivity of river flow and lake level to various evaporation scenarios Those studies shared the same point of the uncertainties involved in predicting climate change and that the planning processes and hydrologic methodologies need to be improved to deal with this challenge

7. International river basins in Africa Wolf et al. 1999

8. Runoff changes in 2050s Drier 8 – 15 % Wetter 8 – 15 % Large uncertainties Results based on Milly et al. (2005) Nature International river basins in Africa Wolf et al. 1999 Slide adapted from one by D. Conway

9. The River Nile Basin • Multiple uses of river and lake water: Hydropower, irrigation agriculture, lake fisheries, industry, domestic, wetland agriculture, wildlife.

10. Contextualizing climate change Temperature Rain fall Magnitude and duration will differ than the past with increase in temperature Interannual and interdecadal variability is large and climate model is less consistent Need to understand the climate society interlinkages

11. Nile Delta – sea level rise What are the key vulnerabilities to climate change in the Nile Basin?Egypt – long-term water securitySudan - extreme events and food securityEthiopia – food securityLake Victoriabasin region – extreme events, hydropower generation Slide: D. Conway

12. The River Nile basin institutions • Multi-lateral institutions: Basin wide: Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Hydromet survey, TECCONILE, Regional: East African Community / Lake Victoria Basin Commission. Kagera River Basin Organisation • Bilateral institutions: Permanent Joint Technical Committee • National institutions Ministries of Water, Foreign Ministries, Nile Basin Discourse Forum

13. Nile Basin agreements International: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses (not ratified by Nile basin countries) Basin-wide agreements: • Cooperative Framework Agreement (currently under negotiation) Bilateral agreements, e.g. • 1929 Egypt and GB (Sudan) • 1959 Egypt and Sudan Multilateral • 1977, 1981 Kagera River Basin (Bu, Rw, Tz, Ug) • 2003 Lake Victoria protocol (Ky, Tz, Ug)

14. Current water allocation in the Nile Basin Status quo: existing use based on 1959 agreement 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan divides Nile flows between Sudan and Egypt No water allocated to upper basin states Rejected by other Nile Basin countries who call for a new agreement evaporation = 10 bcm Sudan = 18.5 bcm Egypt = 55.5 bcm

15. Future water allocation in the Nile Basin Current negotiations for a cooperative framework agreement under NBI Multiple principles for deciding water allocation Avoiding significant harm Equitable use - many possible criteria, e.g.: GDP Population in basin Area of country in basin Prior use Benefit sharing Population in Nile Basin by country

16. Case studies1) Head water tributaries: adaptation in Ethiopian highlands and lake Victoria2) Down stream riparian's : observing adaptation to climate change in Egypt

17. Ethiopia • Historical and contemporary evidence shows the problem of food security in Ethiopia explicit of climate change • Impact of climate variability on drought and food security in Ethiopia is unpredictable • Rural population in Ethiopia (around 80% of the population ) is all about coping • Current shift in water flows in lake Victoria levels an outflow is an excellent example for impact of climate change over water resources

18. Egypt • Climate variability is still a challenge for the available water resources especially with rapid growing population that makes this current surplus dwindling fast • Effects of the dry periods can be seen in the record of the Aswan high Dam ( AHD) where 1988 showed major water shortage and prepared country for future planning scenarios including institutional setups for modeling and forecasting of the upstream flow.( ABU Zeid and Hefny 1992) • The AHD buffers against the interannual variability but recent decades highlight Egypt's vulnerability to inter decadal variability

19. Egypt • Literature clearly demonstrates that Egypt had wide spread awareness and recognition on water scarcity and the need to act for example Egypt’s water vision for the 21st century shows that it is moving from supply to integrated approach which includes both supply and demand management • Paradoxically, Egypt is engaged in a massive expansion policy for integrated agriculture in the western desert and sinai • Egypt also is working on largest pumping station for irrigation scheme for the western desert whilst there is shortage in the AHD • The MWRI has strong technical capacity in water management, but less institutional and socio economic capacities on water demand management options and its linkage to climate change

20. Nile Basin Initiative and climate change adaptation • Climate change recently taken up as an issue • Some projects may contribute to adaptation, e.g.: • Flood preparedness and early warning system • Decision support system for water resources planning • NBI doesn’t address many unilateral water resource developments underway or planned in the basin

21. Conclusion • Effect of climate variability on rain fall interdecadal will affect Nile flow and consequently the water resources in Egypt • Ethopia is embarking on basket of polices ( mainly adaptation) to face food security through greater utilization of the Nile • The increase in Egypt ‘s great demand system will reduce Egypt’s flexibility to manage changes in future water supply • climate adaptation is vital for meeting the challenge of water scarcity • There is a need to work on adaptation actions, its scale and level of involvement of different stakeholders. • More research is needed on socio economic context of climate adaptation • There is a need to have more research on the scarcity issue as an opportunity to force cooperation between countries.

22. Thank you for your Kind attention