Factors affecting demand for food
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Factors Affecting Demand for Food. Text adapted from The World Food Problem Leathers & Foster, 2009. ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389. Age Structure. Population Pyramids indicate age structure Developing countries

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Factors Affecting Demand for Food

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Factors affecting demand for food

Factors Affecting Demand for Food

Text adapted from

The World Food Problem

Leathers & Foster, 2009

ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389


Age structure

Age Structure

  • Population Pyramids

    • indicate age structure

  • Developing countries

    • have much higher percentage of young people

  • Developed countries

    • have even distribution of age groups

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg


Momentum

Momentum

  • Changes in age structure affect population for decades

    • Example: Baby Boom

  • If a developing country achieves replacement fertility rates for adults

    • Population growth continues for decades

    • Because there are more children

Baby boom age pyramid


Age structure for china 1990

Age structure for China (1990)

Great Leap Forward Famine, 1959-1960

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/images/charts/p_19a_m.gif


Dependency ratios

Dependency Ratios

  • Ratio of dependents to working adults

  • Burden of dependent children per adult greater in developing country

    • Developed nation ex:

      • 0.21 children/adult

    • Developing nation ex:

      • .77 chlidren/adult

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg


Age structure determines future calorie needs

Age Structure determines future calorie needs

  • Calorie needs are different at different ages

  • Age structure allows prediction of future calorie needs

    • as current population grows up

  • Need for food can grow faster than the population

    • if more adults than children

      • Adults require more food

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg


Other factors affecting future food needs

Other factors affecting future food needs

  • Number of Pregnant women

  • Amount of physical activity

  • Height of population

    • indicates nutrition level

  • Population + demand/person + more meat

    • Huge synergistic effect

Sierra Leone 8 year old girl


More meat

More Meat

  • As incomes rise, people eat more meat

    • less cereals

  • Meat production requires plant calories

    • Average 6:1 conversion ratio

  • Developing countries eat 4,224 Calories from plants

    • 2,255 directly from plants

    • Plus 315 meat calories (12.5%)

      • Requires 1,969 plant calories to produce meat

http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/20/63/23036320.jpg


More meat1

More Meat

  • If people in developing countries ate 15% meat

    • Would increase total plant calories required

      • to 4,591/person

    • Equivalent increase in demand to 8.7% increase in population

http://delishfood.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/img_4381.JPG


More meat2

More Meat

  • If people in developing nations ate amount of meat eaten in developed nations (27% calories)

    • Would require 6,200 plant-derived calories

    • 47% increase

http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t49/cinzia326/7025.jpg


Optimistic future scenario next 50 yrs

Optimistic Future Scenario: Next 50 yrs

  • Per capita income increases

  • Population growth of 50%

    • Fertility declines

  • Food supplies keep pace with demand

  • Life expectancy increases

  • Average height increases

  • Age structure changes toward fewer children

  • Food demand grows by 101%

Morocco: middle income country


Same impact if pessimistic future

Same impact if pessimistic future

  • Self-Correction on impact with lower quality of life:

    • If prosperity declines

      • Food supply doesn’t keep up with demand

      • Population grows more rapidly

      • Less decline in fertility rates

    • But need less food because

      • Age structure: more children

      • Average height: less change

      • Calories per capita low

        • Undernutrition

      • Dietary diversification small

    • Impact: 98% growth in food demand

Sierra Leone mother

http://www.voices-unabridged.org/photo_gala/gala_dec_2006_pt_18.jpg


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