Factors Affecting Demand for Food

1. Factors Affecting Demand for Food Text adapted from The World Food Problem Leathers & Foster, 2009 ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389

2. Age Structure • Population Pyramids • indicate age structure • Developing countries • have much higher percentage of young people • Developed countries • have even distribution of age groups http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg

3. Momentum • Changes in age structure affect population for decades • Example: Baby Boom • If a developing country achieves replacement fertility rates for adults • Population growth continues for decades • Because there are more children Baby boom age pyramid

4. Age structure for China (1990) Great Leap Forward Famine, 1959-1960 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/images/charts/p_19a_m.gif

5. Dependency Ratios • Ratio of dependents to working adults • Burden of dependent children per adult greater in developing country • Developed nation ex: • 0.21 children/adult • Developing nation ex: • .77 chlidren/adult http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg

6. Age Structure determines future calorie needs • Calorie needs are different at different ages • Age structure allows prediction of future calorie needs • as current population grows up • Need for food can grow faster than the population • if more adults than children • Adults require more food http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg

7. Other factors affecting future food needs • Number of Pregnant women • Amount of physical activity • Height of population • indicates nutrition level • Population + demand/person + more meat • Huge synergistic effect Sierra Leone 8 year old girl

8. More Meat • As incomes rise, people eat more meat • less cereals • Meat production requires plant calories • Average 6:1 conversion ratio • Developing countries eat 4,224 Calories from plants • 2,255 directly from plants • Plus 315 meat calories (12.5%) • Requires 1,969 plant calories to produce meat http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/20/63/23036320.jpg

9. More Meat • If people in developing countries ate 15% meat • Would increase total plant calories required • to 4,591/person • Equivalent increase in demand to 8.7% increase in population http://delishfood.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/img_4381.JPG

10. More Meat • If people in developing nations ate amount of meat eaten in developed nations (27% calories) • Would require 6,200 plant-derived calories • 47% increase http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t49/cinzia326/7025.jpg

11. Optimistic Future Scenario: Next 50 yrs • Per capita income increases • Population growth of 50% • Fertility declines • Food supplies keep pace with demand • Life expectancy increases • Average height increases • Age structure changes toward fewer children • Food demand grows by 101% Morocco: middle income country

12. Same impact if pessimistic future • Self-Correction on impact with lower quality of life: • If prosperity declines • Food supply doesn’t keep up with demand • Population grows more rapidly • Less decline in fertility rates • But need less food because • Age structure: more children • Average height: less change • Calories per capita low • Undernutrition • Dietary diversification small • Impact: 98% growth in food demand Sierra Leone mother http://www.voices-unabridged.org/photo_gala/gala_dec_2006_pt_18.jpg