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Factors Affecting Demand for Food. Text adapted from The World Food Problem Leathers & Foster, 2009. ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389. Age Structure. Population Pyramids indicate age structure Developing countries

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factors affecting demand for food

Factors Affecting Demand for Food

Text adapted from

The World Food Problem

Leathers & Foster, 2009

ttp://www.amazon.com/World-Food-Problem-Toward-Undernutrition/dp/1588266389

age structure
Age Structure
  • Population Pyramids
    • indicate age structure
  • Developing countries
    • have much higher percentage of young people
  • Developed countries
    • have even distribution of age groups

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg

momentum
Momentum
  • Changes in age structure affect population for decades
    • Example: Baby Boom
  • If a developing country achieves replacement fertility rates for adults
    • Population growth continues for decades
    • Because there are more children

Baby boom age pyramid

age structure for china 1990
Age structure for China (1990)

Great Leap Forward Famine, 1959-1960

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/images/charts/p_19a_m.gif

dependency ratios
Dependency Ratios
  • Ratio of dependents to working adults
  • Burden of dependent children per adult greater in developing country
    • Developed nation ex:
      • 0.21 children/adult
    • Developing nation ex:
      • .77 chlidren/adult

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy1.jpg

age structure determines future calorie needs
Age Structure determines future calorie needs
  • Calorie needs are different at different ages
  • Age structure allows prediction of future calorie needs
    • as current population grows up
  • Need for food can grow faster than the population
    • if more adults than children
      • Adults require more food

http://www.scalloway.org.uk/images/poppy2.jpg

other factors affecting future food needs
Other factors affecting future food needs
  • Number of Pregnant women
  • Amount of physical activity
  • Height of population
    • indicates nutrition level
  • Population + demand/person + more meat
    • Huge synergistic effect

Sierra Leone 8 year old girl

more meat
More Meat
  • As incomes rise, people eat more meat
    • less cereals
  • Meat production requires plant calories
    • Average 6:1 conversion ratio
  • Developing countries eat 4,224 Calories from plants
    • 2,255 directly from plants
    • Plus 315 meat calories (12.5%)
      • Requires 1,969 plant calories to produce meat

http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/detail/20/63/23036320.jpg

more meat1
More Meat
  • If people in developing countries ate 15% meat
    • Would increase total plant calories required
      • to 4,591/person
    • Equivalent increase in demand to 8.7% increase in population

http://delishfood.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/img_4381.JPG

more meat2
More Meat
  • If people in developing nations ate amount of meat eaten in developed nations (27% calories)
    • Would require 6,200 plant-derived calories
    • 47% increase

http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t49/cinzia326/7025.jpg

optimistic future scenario next 50 yrs
Optimistic Future Scenario: Next 50 yrs
  • Per capita income increases
  • Population growth of 50%
    • Fertility declines
  • Food supplies keep pace with demand
  • Life expectancy increases
  • Average height increases
  • Age structure changes toward fewer children
  • Food demand grows by 101%

Morocco: middle income country

same impact if pessimistic future
Same impact if pessimistic future
  • Self-Correction on impact with lower quality of life:
    • If prosperity declines
      • Food supply doesn’t keep up with demand
      • Population grows more rapidly
      • Less decline in fertility rates
    • But need less food because
      • Age structure: more children
      • Average height: less change
      • Calories per capita low
        • Undernutrition
      • Dietary diversification small
    • Impact: 98% growth in food demand

Sierra Leone mother

http://www.voices-unabridged.org/photo_gala/gala_dec_2006_pt_18.jpg

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