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Master Plan Timeline

Committed to Our Coast Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan Oyster Advisory Committee Meeting November 29, 2012. Master Plan Timeline. January 10, 2012 – Draft Plan Released for Public Review January 23, 2012 – Public Meeting in New Orleans January 24, 2012 – Public Meting in Houma

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Master Plan Timeline

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  1. Committed to Our CoastLouisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master PlanOyster Advisory Committee MeetingNovember 29, 2012

  2. Master Plan Timeline • January 10, 2012 – Draft Plan Released for Public Review • January 23, 2012 – Public Meeting in New Orleans • January 24, 2012 – Public Meting in Houma • January 25, 2012 – Public Meeting in Lake Charles • February 25, 2012 – Public Comment Period Ends • March 12, 2012 – Legislative Session Convenes • March 21, 2012 – CPRA Reviews Final Plan • TBD – Plan Submitted to Legislature • June 4, 2012 – Legislative Session Adjourns

  3. Leading the Way: Developing the 2012 Coastal Master Plan Step 1: Set Goals & Identify Potential Projects Step 2: Evaluate Projects Step 3: Compare Projects & Develop Alternatives Step 4: Select Plan Step 5: Implement Plan

  4. Step1: Set Goals & Identify Potential Projects

  5. Step 1: Set Goals & Identify Potential Projects • Build on previous planning efforts • Set goals and objectives • Identify previously proposed projects for evaluation Oyster Barrier Reef Conveyance Channel Ridge Restoration Diversions Barrier Island Restoration Flood Gates Protective Levees Marsh Creation Non-Structural Protection

  6. Our Objectives • Reduce economic losses from storm-based flooding • Promote a sustainable coastal ecosystem by harnessing natural system processes • Provide habitats suitable to support an array of commercial and recreational activities coast-wide • Sustain Louisiana’s unique heritage and culture 5. Provide a viable working coast to support industry.

  7. Projects Under Evaluation Note: Map does not include Non-Structural Projects or Programs

  8. Potential Funding for the Future Current estimates show potential available funding in the range of $20 to $50 billion over the next 50 years • For the plan, we estimate an average of $400 million to $1 billion every year for the next 50 years • This funding level is not guaranteed • Funding will be spaced out over 50 year period, so projects will not all be built at once Total implementation costs of all projects under analysis is approximately $250 billion

  9. Step2: Evaluate Projects

  10. Step II: Evaluate Projects • Use systems-based models to show effects on: • Landscape • Ecosystem services • Protection services • Determine what a future with no action will look like • Analyze each project’s benefits and drawbacks

  11. Modeling in a Systems Context Stage, Salinity, Water Quality Land Configuration, Elevation Stage, Salinity 2 3 4 1 Stage, Salinity Sediment Dominant Vegetation Dominant Vegetation Upper Trophic Land Configuration, Elevation Land Configuration, Elevation Dominant Vegetation Island Configuration 7 6 5 Stage Surge Surge, Waves

  12. Land Area Change in Coastal LA1932 - 2010 Land Loss Land Gain Historic Land-Water Change from 1932-2010 Couvillion et al (USGS), 2011

  13. Future Without Action Predicted Land Loss Predicted Land Gain “Moderate” Future Environmental Scenario Predicted Land-Water Change from 2010-2060

  14. Future Without Action Predicted Land Loss Predicted Land Gain “Declining” Future Environmental Scenario Predicted Land-Water Change from 2010-2060

  15. Oyster HSI – Current Conditions

  16. Oyster HSI – Future Without Action “Moderate” Future Environmental Scenario

  17. Oyster HSI – Future Without Action “Declining” Future Environmental Scenario

  18. Step3: Compare Projects & Develop Alternatives

  19. Step 3: Compare Projects & Develop Alternatives • Account for constraints • Water, sediment, funding • Use Planning Tool to compare project benefits • Develop project groupings that reflect the limits of our resources and diversity of possible choices Project Benefits Constraints Water Sediment Funding

  20. Moving Toward a Final Plan 410

  21. Why We’re Using Tools • Models provide gigabytes of data about project effects and coastal conditions. • The Planning Tool helps us use these data to consider a range of options. • The tools’ results inform our decisions. The hard choices are up to us.

  22. Factors in Making Decision: Inputs for the Planning Tool • Other Factors • Risk-Reduction Metrics • Ecosystem Metrics • Distribution of flood risk across socioeconomic groups • Persistence of land area • Use of natural processes • O&M costs  • Support for cultural heritage • Flood protection of historic properties • Support for navigation • Flood protection of strategic assets • Support for oil & gas Oyster Shrimp • Residual Damages: • 50- 100- 500-yr Storm Surge/Wave Reduction Freshwater Availability Alligator • Land Area Waterfowl Saltwater Fisheries Freshwater Fisheries Carbon Sequestration Nitrogen Removal Agriculture / Aquaculture

  23. Step4: Select Plan

  24. Step IV: Select Plan • The selected alternative will: • be the centerpiece of 2012 Coastal Master Plan • guide state investment in Louisiana’s coast • have a specific action plan for the next 10 years • be updated in 5 years

  25. Step5: Implement Plan

  26. Master Plan Timeline • January 10, 2012 – Draft Plan Released for Public Review • January 23, 2012 – Public Meeting in New Orleans • January 24, 2012 – Public Meting in Houma • January 25, 2012 – Public Meeting in Lake Charles • February 25, 2012 – Public Comment Period Ends • March 12, 2012 – Legislative Session Convenes • March 21, 2012 – CPRA Reviews Final Plan • TBD – Plan Submitted to Legislature • June 4, 2012 – Legislative Session Adjourns

  27. Working Together to Develop the Master Plan

  28. Working Together to Develop the Master Plan “Committed to Our Coast”

  29. Outreach Completed to Date 40 Meetings with State Legislators and Parish Presidents 38 Presentations to Civic or Professional Groups 20 Meetings with the Framework Development Team 10 Meetings with Fisheries, Oil and Gas, and Navigation Focus Groups 5 Updates to Levee Boards/Districts 2 Coastal Zone Manager Quarterly Briefings

  30. Focus Groups • Large-scale coastal protection and restoration will affect businesses and industry in south Louisiana. • In order to integrate the perspectives of those in key business sectors we have created three focus groups: • Navigation • Fisheries • Oil and Gas • Leaders in each sector are being asked to meet with us regularly over the next year to explore productive paths forward.

  31. Ongoing Outreach

  32. New Website: coastalmasterplan.la.gov

  33. Discussion and Q&A

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