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Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models. CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011. Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9. Pedro Pires de Matos* Erin O. Sills NC State University. * Corresponding author: pedro_matos@ncsu.edu. Outline.

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Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on

Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models

CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011

Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9

Pedro Pires de Matos*

Erin O. Sills

NC State University

* Corresponding author: pedro_matos@ncsu.edu


Outline

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Environmental Law

Data

Econometric Models for Spatial Panels

Results


Deforestation in the Amazon

12% - 30%

(van der Werf, 2009 –

FAO, 2006)


Deforestation in the Amazon

The “Arc of Deforestation”


Deforestation in the Amazon

Annual loss of forest cover in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Km2

Causes of deforestation

in the Brazilian Amazon,

2000-2005

Logging (2-3%)

Other

1-2%)

Large-Scale

agriculture

(5-10%)

Small-scale

agriculture

(20-25%)

Source: INPE 2011

Cattle ranching

(65-70%)

Source: Mongabay.com, 2011


Environmental Law in Brazil

  • The first Forestry Code was created with Federal Decree N. 23.793, from 1934.

  • TheconceptofLegal Amazonwascreatedin1953 (Federal Law 1.806).

  • The Forestry Code was substantially revised by Federal Law n. 4.771, from 1965.

    • Defines small properties:

      • Small property in Legal Amazon <150 ha.

      • Minimum of 80% of household income from agro-forestry or extraction.

    • Defines Permanent Protection Areas (Área de Preservação permanente – APP):

      • Protect water resources, soil, landscape, biodiversity and population’s wellbeing.

    • Defines Legal Reserve (Reserva Legal – RL):

      • Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity.


Environmental Law in Brazil

  • APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services

    • River margins (riparian corridors)

    • Lakes and other bodies of water

    • Water springs

    • Top of hills and mountains

    • Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees)

    • High erosion areas

    • High altitude areas (> 1800m)

    • Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors)

  • RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity

    • 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon

      • Lowered to 50% for deforestedproperties

    • RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place within the same hydrographical basin


Environmental Law in Brazil

  • APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services

    • River margins (riparian corridors)

    • Lakes and other bodies of water

    • Water springs

    • Top of hills and mountains

    • Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees)

    • High erosion areas

    • High altitude areas (> 1800m)

    • Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors)

  • RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity

    • 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon

      • Lowered to 50% for deforestedproperties

    • RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place within the same hydrographical basin


The research question

The question:

Are these legal instruments effective?

The answer:

X

Yes

No

It depends

An economist’s default answer


Study Area

9392 Lots

0

20 Km


Data

Total area per land use/land cover


Data

Forest cover as percentage of lot area

1984

2009

2000

2005

1996


The research question

The question:

Are these legal instruments effective?

The answer:

X

Yes

No

It depends

An economist’s default answer

The “actual” research question:

Are these legal instruments affecting land use/land cover change dynamics?

(i.e. do farmers alter their behavior around legally defined minimum forest cover levels?)


Data


Age of Lot

Official Date

(INCRA)

First

occupation

Spatially

weighted

Lot settlement year

2/3 consecutive years:

Visible pasture > 0.5 ha

Decrease in forest > 0.5 ha

Visible urban class

Spatial weighting

Locate 10 nearest neighbours (NN)

If age gap between lot and

youngest of 8 NN > 10 y

Assign that age to lot


Market access

Distance to

main city

Distance to

nearest market


Key variables

Forest Cover 2000

Rivers


Spatial panel models

t


Spatial panel models

Pooled cross sections

Fixed effects

Random effects


Spatial panel models

Spatial Lag Model (SLM)

Spatial Error Model (SEM)


Spatial panel models

Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)

Generalized Spatial Model (GSM)


The Model


Results


Results


Results


Conclusions and ongoing work

  • Environmental legislation is not effective...

  • ... but farmers appear to “acknowledge” its presence.

  • Policy implications:

    • Improved enforcement decelerates deforestation (obvious).

    • Enforcement above incentives/subsidies (e.g. REDD+)?

  • Working with sub-samples and additional covariates.

  • Incorporating HH survey data.


Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on

Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models

Thank you for your time. Questions?

CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011

Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9

Erin O. Sills

Pedro Pires de Matos*

NC State University

* Corresponding author: pedro_matos@ncsu.edu


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