Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on
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Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models. CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011. Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9. Pedro Pires de Matos* Erin O. Sills NC State University. * Corresponding author: [email protected] Outline.

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Cenrep camp resources 2011

Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on

Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models

CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011

Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9

Pedro Pires de Matos*

Erin O. Sills

NC State University

* Corresponding author: [email protected]


Cenrep camp resources 2011

Outline

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Environmental Law

Data

Econometric Models for Spatial Panels

Results


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Deforestation in the Amazon

12% - 30%

(van der Werf, 2009 –

FAO, 2006)


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Deforestation in the Amazon

The “Arc of Deforestation”


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Deforestation in the Amazon

Annual loss of forest cover in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Km2

Causes of deforestation

in the Brazilian Amazon,

2000-2005

Logging (2-3%)

Other

1-2%)

Large-Scale

agriculture

(5-10%)

Small-scale

agriculture

(20-25%)

Source: INPE 2011

Cattle ranching

(65-70%)

Source: Mongabay.com, 2011


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Environmental Law in Brazil

  • The first Forestry Code was created with Federal Decree N. 23.793, from 1934.

  • TheconceptofLegal Amazonwascreatedin1953 (Federal Law 1.806).

  • The Forestry Code was substantially revised by Federal Law n. 4.771, from 1965.

    • Defines small properties:

      • Small property in Legal Amazon <150 ha.

      • Minimum of 80% of household income from agro-forestry or extraction.

    • Defines Permanent Protection Areas (Área de Preservação permanente – APP):

      • Protect water resources, soil, landscape, biodiversity and population’s wellbeing.

    • Defines Legal Reserve (Reserva Legal – RL):

      • Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity.


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Environmental Law in Brazil

  • APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services

    • River margins (riparian corridors)

    • Lakes and other bodies of water

    • Water springs

    • Top of hills and mountains

    • Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees)

    • High erosion areas

    • High altitude areas (> 1800m)

    • Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors)

  • RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity

    • 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon

      • Lowered to 50% for deforestedproperties

    • RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place within the same hydrographical basin


Cenrep camp resources 2011

Environmental Law in Brazil

  • APP – Protect resources and provide ecosystem services

    • River margins (riparian corridors)

    • Lakes and other bodies of water

    • Water springs

    • Top of hills and mountains

    • Steep hillsides (> 45 degrees)

    • High erosion areas

    • High altitude areas (> 1800m)

    • Urban green areas (e.g. protection of highway corridors)

  • RL – Preserve ecosystems and biodiversity

    • 80% of rural properties’ area in the Legal Amazon

      • Lowered to 50% for deforestedproperties

    • RL can be shared by several lots and be located in a different place within the same hydrographical basin


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The research question

The question:

Are these legal instruments effective?

The answer:

X

Yes

No

It depends

An economist’s default answer


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Study Area

9392 Lots

0

20 Km


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Data

Total area per land use/land cover


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Data

Forest cover as percentage of lot area

1984

2009

2000

2005

1996


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The research question

The question:

Are these legal instruments effective?

The answer:

X

Yes

No

It depends

An economist’s default answer

The “actual” research question:

Are these legal instruments affecting land use/land cover change dynamics?

(i.e. do farmers alter their behavior around legally defined minimum forest cover levels?)


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Data


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Age of Lot

Official Date

(INCRA)

First

occupation

Spatially

weighted

Lot settlement year

2/3 consecutive years:

Visible pasture > 0.5 ha

Decrease in forest > 0.5 ha

Visible urban class

Spatial weighting

Locate 10 nearest neighbours (NN)

If age gap between lot and

youngest of 8 NN > 10 y

Assign that age to lot


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Market access

Distance to

main city

Distance to

nearest market


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Key variables

Forest Cover 2000

Rivers


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Spatial panel models

t


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Spatial panel models

Pooled cross sections

Fixed effects

Random effects


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Spatial panel models

Spatial Lag Model (SLM)

Spatial Error Model (SEM)


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Spatial panel models

Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)

Generalized Spatial Model (GSM)


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The Model


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Results


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Results


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Results


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Conclusions and ongoing work

  • Environmental legislation is not effective...

  • ... but farmers appear to “acknowledge” its presence.

  • Policy implications:

    • Improved enforcement decelerates deforestation (obvious).

    • Enforcement above incentives/subsidies (e.g. REDD+)?

  • Working with sub-samples and additional covariates.

  • Incorporating HH survey data.


Cenrep camp resources 2011

Environmental Law in the Amazon: Testing Impacts on

Land-Use Dynamics using Spatial Panel Models

Thank you for your time. Questions?

CEnREP – Camp Resources 2011

Wrightsville Beach NC, August 7-9

Erin O. Sills

Pedro Pires de Matos*

NC State University

* Corresponding author: [email protected]


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