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Summary of causes and nature of conflict in the post 9/11 period

Summary of causes and nature of conflict in the post 9/11 period. Two phases: - Flare up of many longstanding regional and ethnic conflicts held in check mostly by the bipolar nature of the Cold War (e.g. Breakup of Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Somalia)

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Summary of causes and nature of conflict in the post 9/11 period

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  1. Summary of causes and nature of conflict in the post 9/11 period • Two phases: - Flare up of many longstanding regional and ethnic conflicts held in check mostly by the bipolar nature of the Cold War (e.g. Breakup of Yugoslavia, Rwanda, Somalia) - Began with September 11, 2001 and the subsequent shift in US foreign policy to one that incorporated “strategic pre-emption”

  2. “WAR ON TERROR” • A conflict between the US (most powerful economic and military state in history) and a loose network of Islamist terrorists operating under the broad banner of al-Qaeda. • Not a “traditional” war – al-Qaeda uses internet to spread message, recruit followers and co-ordinate attacks. • Nature of this conflict means that it is difficult to fight with conventional military means.

  3. U.S. APPROACH TO “WAR ON TERROR” • Attack states thought to harbour terrorists (Afghanistan) or support them (Iraq). An attempt to use its conventional military strength to isolate al-Qaeda from state support. Shifted from a policy of containment to an era of “pre-emptive strikes” – a challenge to the idea of the sovereignty of states. U.S. forgo many conventions and rules of international conflict which restricted the rights of its own citizens as well as the international combatants.

  4. INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO U.S. APPROACH • Realignment of former diplomatic Cold War alliances (e.g. France and Germany refused to support U.S. actions) • U.S. needed to ultimately seek support from the UN and European allies as it found itself stretched very thinly to fight in both Afghanistan and Iraq simultaneously.

  5. LATER APPROACH BY GEORGE W. BUSH • Started to refer to the conflict as a “struggle against violent extremism” rather than a “war on terrorism”. • Indicating a recognition that conventional military tactics will be ineffective in winning the war, and must employ diplomacy, economic and educational reforms to defeat extremists. Unilateralism will not defeat terrorists.

  6. OBAMA’S APPROACH • Rebuild infrastructure for innocent civilians (schools, hospitals, roads, public buildings) • Troop surge with a plan for withdrawal • Support establishment of good governance practices (government, police, armed forces)

  7. Could terrorism be “successful”? • Terrorism can sometimes be viewed as “successful” as historically it has brought colonial, occupying powers to the negotiating table. • However, it does not appear that al-Qaeda seek such opportunity for negotiation. The establishment of an Islamic caliphate would involve the removal of existing states and present a strong threat to existing power structures.

  8. Effects of Terrorist Attacks • Legal and human rights • Introduction of anti-terrorism legislation that proscribes certain groups and reduces rights for suspects in custody (e.g. Holding a person for 14 days without charges and without a lawyer). • US “Patriot Act” – indefinite detention of non-deportable non-US citizens if Attorney-General has reasonable grounds to believe engagement in terrorist activities or endanger national security. • US “Patriot Act” – non-US citizens accused of terrorism can be tried by military commission rather than being part of normal legal process (impacting on the concept of a “fair trial”) • Overall reduced legal provisions for rights of individuals.

  9. Effects of Terrorist Attacks • Economic 9/11 considered to have cost about half a million dollars to conduct. US govt gave City of New York US$20 billion for clean up and another US$5 billion to families of victims. Total cost estimated at $US50billion including building damage. Cost of invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq contributed to the financial crisis in US today. Estimates of Iraq invasion under Bush in excess of $400 billion (Robyn E. Blumner).

  10. Effects of Terrorist Attacks • Increased anti-US sentiment Strong militaristic response of US caused many states to view US unfavourably. 2007 Pew Institute’s Global Attitudes Poll – US viewed unfavourably by majority of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Western European countries, all Muslim Middle Eastern countries except Kuwait. - Bush approval very low – only Israel and a few sub-Saharan African countries giving him more than 50% approval rating.

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