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Influences on Net Migration. Kelly Howard kh[email protected] American University School of International Service. Research Question & Research hypothesis. Research Question: What is the relationship between the prosperity and well-being of a country and its net migration rate?

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influences on net migration

Influences on Net Migration

Kelly Howard

[email protected]

American University

School of International Service

research question research hypothesis
Research Question & Research hypothesis
  • Research Question: What is the relationship between the prosperity and well-being of a country and its net migration rate?
  • Research Hypothesis: In general, I expect that the more prosperous the country, the more likely it is that country will have positive net migration.
      • Ha1: GDP per capita
      • Ha2: Unemployment rate, total (% of total labor force)
      • Ha3: Infant mortality rate under 5 (per 1000)
      • Ha4: Life Expectancy (years)
      • Ha5: Primary School Completion rate (% of relevant age group)
literature review
Literature Review
  • “The Effect of Development on Migration”
        • by Michael Vogler and Ralph Rotte
    • Question: Why, given high differences in income and living conditions, is migration from the Third World to industrialized countries low?
    • Findings : Costs / benefits of migration; cultural groups are affected by variables differently.
  • “Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe”
        • By Eric Neumayer
    • Question: What factors can explain asylum migration to Western European countries?
    • Findings : to reduce immigration rates, promote economic growth and human rights in the countries they’re emigrating from.
slide4
Data
  • Country-level cross sectional analysis
  • World Bank database
  • Dependent variable : net migration rate (per 1000 population)
  • Independent variables: :
      • GDP per capita (gdppc)
      • Unemployment rate, total (% of total labor force) (ur08)
      • Infant mortality rate under 5 (per 1000) (mrate5)
      • Life Expectancy (years) (le09)
      • Primary Completion rate (% of relevant age group) (primrate)
dependent variable net migration rate per 1000
Dependent Variable: Net Migration Rate (per 1000)

Mean: -.307277

Median: -1.86375

Fairly unimodal

Range: -92.26 to 103.11

N = 177

Missing = 71/248

two independent variables
Two independent variables:

GDP per capita

Mean: 13230.9

Median: 4216

Range: 160 to 186175

Normalcy

N = 183

Missing = 63/248

Unemployment Rate, total (% of total labor force)

Mean: 8.58

Median: 6.65

Range: 1.2 to 47.5

Normalcy

N=68

Missing = 150/248

bivariate analysis2
Bivariate Analysis

Note: figures in bold are significant at the alpha = 0.05 level.

regression analysis dependent variable net migration rate
Regression Analysis, Dependent Variable: Net Migration Rate

Note: figures in bold are significant at the alpha = 0.05 level

findings policy implications of the research
Findings & Policy Implications of the research
  • Findings: Did you accept your research hypothesis?
    • Yes, GDP per capita has a positive association with net migration rate
    • But no, the infant mortality rate and the primary completion rate did not have a significant association with the dependent variable
  • What are the policy implications of your findings?
    • To increase one’s net migration rate, increase GDP per capita
    • To reduce one’s net migration rate, increase GDP per capita in the countries you’re receiving immigrants from
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