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Strategic Development Plan: Managing for Better Results Presentation by Civil Society

Strategic Development Plan: Managing for Better Results Presentation by Civil Society Economic Strategic Sector presented by Juvinal Dias Timor-Leste & Development Partners Meeting (TLDPM) Dili Convention Centre, 25-26 July 2014. Petroleum income so far.

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Strategic Development Plan: Managing for Better Results Presentation by Civil Society

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  1. Strategic Development Plan: Managing for Better Results Presentation by Civil Society Economic Strategic Sectorpresented by Juvinal Dias Timor-Leste & Development Partners Meeting (TLDPM) Dili Convention Centre, 25-26 July 2014

  2. Petroleum income so far

  3. Timor-Leste doesn’t have much oil

  4. If we keep going as we are, Timor-Leste cannot afford its budget in only 12 years.

  5. Recurrent spending keeps going up

  6. 77% of GDP is from oil and gas

  7. Non-oil GDP is stagnant

  8. Petroleum Dependency • Projected state revenues in 2014:…………..…… $2,380 million$2,213 million (93%) will be from oil (incl. $770m investment return)$ 166 million ( 7%) will be from non-petroleum sources • 2014 State Budget:…………………………………… $1,500 million $903 million (60%) will be taken from the Petroleum Fund in 2014.$430 million (29%) more is from the Petrol. Fund in the past and future. • Non-oil GDP in 2011:..………………………........... $1,047 million Petroleum GDP in 2011:…………….………………. $3,478 mill. (77%)Productive (agriculture & manufacturing) GDP …. $ 179 m (4%) and dropping • Non-oil balance of goods trade: $535m imports, $16m exports (98% coffee) • Petroleum “income” goes to the state, not the people. Only South Sudan, Libya (and Equatorial Guinea?) are more dependent on oil and gas exports than Timor-Leste is.

  9. Import dependency Import Exports (non-oil) Power plant imports “Imports” of U.S. dollar notes Importa Sistema Elétrika Nasionál This graph shows legal goods trade only. More than 80% of donor spending and 50% of state spending goes overseas.

  10. The 2014 budget doesn’t prioritize education, agriculture or health

  11. Budget execution through 24 July 2014 Transfers Capital & Development Minor Capital Goods & services Salaries & benefits Million US dollars The green ‘target’ in the back represents the amount which would have been spent if execution was uniform throughout the year.

  12. Revenue sources in 2014 budget$1.5 billion total Total revenue: $1,500 million, of which 89% comes from oil and gas in the past, present and future.

  13. What do 630,000 Timorese people age 15-64 do for work?

  14. Many children will become youth Timor-Leste has problems finding jobs for the 16,000 young people who will achieve working age during 2014. In 2024, 28,000 more people will seek work each year, and the oil and gas may be gone. Today’s youth will have children of their own.

  15. When VVIPs come, who pays?

  16. Oecusse Special Economic Zone • What are Oecusse’s competitive advantages? • Can ZEESM justify investing $4 billion? Who will benefit: Oecusse residents or political leaders?

  17. Overbuilding ports and airports • IFC is encouraging Timor-Leste to build a port and airport far beyond realistic traffic expectations. • How will the country pay for a $6 billion annual trade deficit after the oil is gone? Traffic forecast for Tibar Port

  18. Tasi Mane petroleum infrastructure project • In 2010, TL began the South Coast Petroleum Corridor. • During 2011-2013, TL spent $35 million • Total project costs could exceed $2 billion (much more if Timor-Leste pays for the refinery, pipeline or LNG plant). • The new budget allocates $46m in 2014 and $320m in 2015-2018, but leaves a lot out.

  19. Thankyou. You will find more and updated information at • La’o Hamutuk’s website http://www.laohamutuk.org • La’o Hamutuk’s bloghttp://laohamutuk.blogspot.com/ Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis Rua Martires do Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-Leste Mailing address: P.O. Box 340, Dili, Timor-Leste Telephone: +670 77234330 (mobile) +670 3321040 (landline) Email: info@laohamutuk.org

  20. State Budgets 2002-2014

  21. Cash balance, spending and Petroleum Fund

  22. Timor-Leste doesn’t have enough oil and gas wealth to meet our needs

  23. Year-on-year inflation, per GDS

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