1 / 50

The State of the San Diego Economy: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed? October 17, 2013

The State of the San Diego Economy: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed? October 17, 2013. Welcome Dr. Ronald Uhlig Dean, School of Business and Management. Introduction Dr. Michael R. Cunningham President, National University Chancellor, National University System. Presentation

shima
Download Presentation

The State of the San Diego Economy: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed? October 17, 2013

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The State of the San Diego Economy: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed? October 17, 2013

  2. Welcome Dr. Ronald Uhlig Dean, School of Business and Management

  3. Introduction Dr. Michael R. Cunningham President, National University Chancellor, National University System

  4. Presentation Kelly Cunningham Senior Fellow and Economist, National University System

  5. Kelly CunninghamEconomist, Senior Fellowwww.nusinstitute.org The State of the San Diego Economy: Where Have We Been, Where Are We Headed? October 17, 2013

  6. The State of the San Diego Economy: • Great Recession “ended” in 2009 • National indicators of recovery • State and regional indicators • San Diego’s economic interdependence and independence/strengths and weaknesses • Industries • Jobs • San Diego demographics • Our economic outlook: opportunities • San Diego region • National University • Individual

  7. Debt Limit/Default – October 17, 2013 • If we hit this date without raising the debt limit the U.S. is not going to automatically default on the debt. • At this time, the Treasury would have to start prioritizing payments, meaning picking and choosing who gets paid first. • If a government default occurs, it will be due to the government’s unwillingness to pay, not on ability to pay. • There is plenty of cash on hand to make debt obligation payments, but there is not enough money to pay for all government programs. Congress should eliminate programs that can’t be justified • Raising the debt limit amounts to putting off paying the government’s bills. • Borrowing more and going further into debt only perpetuates the day of reckoning when we lose the world reserve currency status. • This would be the most traumatic event that could happen to the US, worse than Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and the 2008 financial collapse; and we are dangerously approaching this possibility. • “The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies.” - Senator Barack Obama, 2006

  8. U.S. Job Loss and Recovery

  9. U.S. Unemployment Rate

  10. Employment Population Ratio, Participation Rate

  11. Alternative measures of labor underutilization3rdQtr, 2012 through 2ndQtr 2013 Averages U-1: Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force. U-2: Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force. U-3: Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate). U-4: Total unemployed plus discouraged workers. U-5: Includes U-4 plus all other marginally attached workers. U-6: Includes U-5 plus total employed part time for economic reasons.

  12. Unemployment rate- labor underutilization

  13. Change in U.S. Employment by Age 55+ year olds: 34% of workers in 2013 55+ year olds: 25% of workers in 2007

  14. Unemployment Rate Comparison

  15. San Diego Metropolitan AreaGross Domestic Product

  16. Ranking of Gross Domestic Products2012 U.S. Dollars

  17. Comparison of Annual Change in GDPSAN DIEGO, California, U.S.

  18. San Diego GDP by Industry - 2012

  19. Defense Spending Percent of San Diego GDP

  20. San Diego GDP by Industry: 2001-12

  21. Location Quotient • Location quotient (LQ) is a way of quantifying how concentrated a particular industry, cluster, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to the nation. • It can reveal what makes a particular region unique in comparison to the national average. • Location Quotient formula = (SD industry employment / SD total employment) (U.S. Industry employment / U.S. total employment) • LQ > 1.0 San Diego has higher concentration of production or employment the national average. • LQ = 1.0 San Diego has the same share of regional production or employment as the nation. • LQ < 1.0 San Diego has a lower concentration of production or employment the national average.

  22. San Diego Location Quotient by Industry

  23. San Diego, California, U.S. Jobs Nonfarm payroll employment seasonally adjusted

  24. Nonfarm Payroll Industry Jobs

  25. Change in San Diego Jobs by Industry Sectors, August 2012- August 2013

  26. Manufacturing Employment

  27. Change in Jobs among Top-Five San Diego Defense-Dependent Industries vs. All Other Private Sector Industries

  28. Professional, Scientific, Technical Services

  29. San Diego International Trade with Mexico and Rest of the World

  30. San Diego Industry Employment Change San Diego technology companies account for:Average Wage (2012) Establishments: 6% Employment: 11% San Diego (overall) $54,000 Payrolls: 21% Average Wage: 190% Tech Average $102,600

  31. San Diego Technology Employment by Sector

  32. Health Care & Social Assistance

  33. Leisure and Hospitality

  34. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

  35. Construction Employment

  36. San Diego Businesses/Employersby Number of Employees

  37. Annual San Diego County Population Change

  38. San Diego Population by Age

  39. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

  40. Ratio of Median Selling Home Price to Median Household Income

  41. Housing Opportunity Index – 2ndQtr 2013

  42. San Diego Housing Construction

  43. Forecasting is a lot like trying to drive a car while only being able to see out the rear view mirror. - Anonymous

  44. www.nusinstitute.org Our Mission The Institute is a non-partisan organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic, policy, and public-opinion research.

  45. Thank you for coming! Questions? Dr. Ronald Uhlig Dean, School of Business and Management

More Related