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Corporate Valuation and Financing Exercises Session 4 « Options (Financial and Real) » Laurent Frisque - laurent.frisque

Corporate Valuation and Financing Exercises Session 4 « Options (Financial and Real) » Laurent Frisque - laurent.frisque@gmail.com Steve Plasman – steve.plasman@gmail.com. Q1 Option Valuation (European call, binomial tree). Q1:

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Corporate Valuation and Financing Exercises Session 4 « Options (Financial and Real) » Laurent Frisque - laurent.frisque

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  1. Corporate Valuation and FinancingExercises Session 4«Options (Financial and Real)» Laurent Frisque - laurent.frisque@gmail.com Steve Plasman – steve.plasman@gmail.com

  2. Q1 Option Valuation (European call, binomial tree) Q1: • Value a European call on a share with a one year maturity and a 190€ strike price (K) • The share is currently traded at 200€ (S) • The price of the share can either double (probability 70%) or be divided by two (probability 30%) during the next year • The linear risk free rate is 4% (rf) => What is the risk neutral probability? (p) p = (1 + rf – d) / (u – d) => What is the value of the call (use a one year binomial tree)?

  3. Q1: => How could one replicate the call? Buy Delta shares = Cup – Cdown / Sup - Sdown Borrow B at riskless rate = (d* Cup + u* Cdown) / ((up-down)*(1+rf)) Synthetic call : (S*delta shares) - Borrow Beta => You have 200€ today how many shares could you buy and how many calls? => If you believe the price of the share will rise by 20€ should you invest in calls or in shares? Q1 Option Valuation (European call, binomial tree)

  4. Q2 Option Valuation (American put, binomial tree) Q2: • More complex: an American put option on a share which is currently traded at 100€ (no dividend in the near future) • Each month, the price of the share can either increase by 10% or go down by 9.1%. =>He wants to know (without number crunching) if the European put on with the same features is worth more than the American one? => Compute the value of a three months European put (strike price 100€) and a three months American put. The continuous risk free rate is worth 0.5% per month.

  5. Q2 Option Valuation (American put, binomial tree) Q2: => Value of a three months European put (strike price 100€) Calculate at maturity : the different stock prices the corresponing values of the call options the risk neutral probabilities Calculate the expected cal value in a neutral world C = (p*Cup – (1-p)*Cdown) Discount at risk free rate Value of a three months American put ? Same as for the European, but we can choose to exercise the option at each notch

  6. Q3 Option valuation (Arbitrage) Q3: • A share of the Vinano Company is currently traded at 52$ • A 1 year European call option on this share with a strike price of 45$ is traded for 53$. => Is there a sure way to make money? construct an arbitrage

  7. Q4 Option valuation (Black and Scholes) Q4: Move from the simple binomial setting to the continuous setting (Black and Scholes formula) Value of a call on the MekWhisky Cy? • Current share price is 120$ • The strike price 100$ • Maturity 1 year • Annual volatility of the share is 40% • Continuous risk free rate is worth 5% => Use first a one year binomial tree and then the Black and Scholes formula.

  8. Q4 Option valuation (Black and Scholes)

  9. Q4 Option valuation (Black and Scholes) Cumulative normal distribution

  10. Q4 Option valuation (Black and Scholes) Q4: one year binomial tree >< Black and Scholes formula => How can you explain the difference? => What would happen if you chose a binomial tree with 6 months steps (instead of one year)?

  11. Q5 Real Options Q5: Freshwater Corp market capitalisation (2,325,000 $). The stock traded at 23.25 $. Signature of a R&D partnership financing agreement. The project related to the development of a new energy drink • The partnership was a 2 year agreement with the following features: • Freshwater finances 100% of the partnership. • Every year Freshwater can terminate the partnership if they wish. • The initial investment to start the project is 25,000 $. • If the company decides to pursue the project after 1 year it will have to invest, 75,000$. • After 2 years, assuming the company goes ahead, the big launch costs is estimated to be 225,000 $.

  12. Q5 Real Options Q5: Market analysis: new line of product’s net profits (no extra investment was required, nor any increase in WCR was created) : Year 3 : 50 Year 4 : 55 Year 5 : 60 Year 6  ∞ : +2% annually The project WACC is 17% Freshwater WACC is 12% The risk free rate is 2% Freshwater capital structure will remain constant

  13. Q5 Real Options Q5: The financial planning report highlighted that the forecasts were very sensitive to a number of uncertain factors : a potential new law extending pub opening hours (decision expected in 1 Y) the creation of a free cab service for Bobland’s discos clients (decision in 2 Y) The realisation of each of these elements could potentially impact the value of the future business. The volatility is estimated to be 50%

  14. Q5 Real Options Q5: The financial planning report highlighted that the forecasts were very sensitive to a number of uncertain factors : Just after the press release, the stock volatility shot up as the financial community was puzzled by Freshwater’s strategy On that day trading session the stock finally lost 10% . Compute the present value of the project but obtained a negative value…. check initial NPV assessment makes sense and then find an alternative approach to determine if this partnership has got any value for Freshwater Is the stock price slide justified?

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